好萊塢或?qū)⒉饺牒?/h1>
2020-12-28 02:32:45尼克·比爾頓
英語(yǔ)世界 2020年12期
尼克·比爾頓
Hollywood may be the last creative industry not to be hollowed out1 by technology. What happens when Silicon Valley2 starts replacing screenwriters with bots， and your favorite actress with C.G.I.3？ In some corners of Los Angeles， the future is already here.好萊塢或許是最后一個(gè)尚未被科技顛覆的創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)了。假如硅谷開(kāi)始用機(jī)器人來(lái)替代編劇，用電腦成像來(lái)替代你最喜歡的女演員，那會(huì)發(fā)生什么？在洛杉磯的某些角落，這種未來(lái)已經(jīng)到來(lái)。
Shortly after midnight on December 8， 1962， on West 43rd Street in Manhattan， right at the epicenter of the world， hundreds of people who worked in the newspaper industry walked out of the New York Times building and into the cold streets to begin a strike that would last 114 days. About 17，000 newspaper employees， from pressmen to paper handlers， elevator operators to reporters， joined the picket lines4. “At its core， the New York newspaper strike was a battle over technology，” Scott Sherman wrote in Vanity Fair. “The 1950s and 1960s saw the emergence of computerized typesetting systems that would revolutionize the newspaper composing room. Newspapers that prohibited unions， such as the Los Angeles Times， rushed to install cutting-edge computers such as the RCA 301. Newspapers with union contracts， including those in New York City， faced tempestuous5 resistance from labor leaders， who could easily see that automation would cost jobs.”
Of course， the newspaper strike didnt stop the future. If anything， it simply hastened the demise6 of numerous newspapers. What the union leaders at the time didnt understand （or want to accept） was that technology cannot be stopped， slowed， or avoided in an industry that is being disrupted. Either you find a way to adapt， or someone else does.
Hollywood， which has mostly avoided the dislocations affecting the rest of the media industry， now faces its own moment of reckoning7. Unlike journalism， where technology has decimated profit margins， Tinseltown8 is still living high on the hog9， sustaining an entire ecosystem of agents and middlemen who do nothing， add little value， and get paid incredibly well for their services.
Earlier this week， as I was lying in bed， I felt our house rattle very briefly. I quickly Googled “earthquake Los Angeles，” and found myself reading an article that had just been written on the L.A. Times Web site， explaining that a tremor had occurred a few miles from my house， its level on the Richter scale， and a few other pertinent10 details. Yet， at the end of the article， instead of a byline， I learned that the piece had been written by an algorithm. As far as I could tell， no human intelligence had been involved. The same is true for stories about stocks， sports， and anything else that involves numbers and data that can be created by a computer rather than a person.
It wont be long before machine learning11 begins to impact jobs in Hollywood， too. A few years ago， on a tour at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology， professors explained to me how they were exploring A.I. that could be used to write screenplays and edit films. Now， algorithms are actually co-writing screenplays. Computer algorithms are the stars of our shows， too. How long will it be before a film studio， after fighting with an actor about their pay for a sequel， simply animates them instead？
More frightening is a future in which our smart TVs can watch us back. Years ago， I saw a security demo12 for a program that could be used by spy agencies to track peoples eyes as they read words on a screen. The primary purpose was to ensure that only the intended recipient could read a decrypted message， but the software could also monitor pupil movement and dilation， facial movements， and heartbeat speed to determine if viewers were engaged， nervous， excited， and so on. Could that same technology be applied to an audience watching a TV show？ Already， Netflix tracks which show icons you linger on， and adjusts how they are presented to maximize the likelihood that you will click. Now imagine a world in which Netflix and its ilk can literally see when you get bored， if a joke works or falls flat， if a scene isnt exciting enough， and so on.
In some ways， that future is already here. Last year， after crunching the numbers13 on Arrested Developments disastrous fourth installment14， Netflix decided to recut the entire season， shortening the episodes and re-arranging scenes so that they were chronological rather than based around a single character. The remix wasnt perfect， but it was comparatively well received. Perhaps more important， it served as a proof of concept for the idea that content doesnt need to be fixed， but can evolve to suit an audience. In the case of Arrested Development， series creator Mitchell Hurwitz stepped in to recut the show. Soon， however， shows may be able to recut themselves. During a recent meeting at one of the big studios， I heard about a technology that is analyzing the way award-winning movies and TV shows are edited， and exploring if a computer can edit content with the same precision. You come home from work and say， “Hey， Alexa， make me a personalized comedy with a female lead set in New York that is 16 minutes long so I can watch it before dinner.” Then， like magic， thats what youre watching.
When you compare what is happening in Hollywood to what has happened in every other industry， maybe Hollywood unions have a chance to ensure that the people who make a living here dont get screwed over like Uber drivers and journalists did. As one writer explained to me， “When guilds of any kind have been disrupted， you see a complete degradation for the quality of work and pay for the people who work in those industries： they make less money， have no health insurance， and certainly have less power. Disruption has not been good for labor， even if it has been good for consumers.”
Most Americans think Hollywood has already been disrupted by technology. They look at Netflix， Amazon Prime， and the fact that they can stream Game of Thrones on their iPhone as a sign that Hollywood has gone through its inevitable technology changes already. But that quixotic thinking is akin to the newspaper unions of 1962 seeing the upcoming RCA 301 as the only disruption that would happen to newsrooms in our lifetime. In reality， that was nothing. The same is true with the streaming-video platforms today. All these companies have really done is change how we get our content; on the production side， creative work is frustratingly messy and entirely human. Hollywood， whether it believes it or not， is still ripe for disruption. The question is： will it be people who do the disrupting， or a computer somewhere in Silicon Valley？
1962年12月8日剛過(guò)午夜，就在那次震動(dòng)世界的運(yùn)動(dòng)中心，曼哈頓西43街，成百上千的報(bào)業(yè)人士走出《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》的大樓，走上寒冷的街道，開(kāi)始了一場(chǎng)持續(xù)114天的罷工。約有1.7萬(wàn)名報(bào)業(yè)雇員，從印刷工到紙工，從電梯工到記者，參加了這場(chǎng)罷工。“究其實(shí)質(zhì)，紐約的報(bào)業(yè)罷工是一場(chǎng)針對(duì)技術(shù)的戰(zhàn)斗?！彼箍铺亍ど崧凇睹麍?chǎng)》雜志撰文寫(xiě)道，“20世紀(jì)50年代和60年代，電腦控制的排版系統(tǒng)出現(xiàn)，給報(bào)業(yè)的排字房帶來(lái)了革命性的影響。禁止工會(huì)活動(dòng)的報(bào)紙，例如《洛杉磯時(shí)報(bào)》，火速安裝了諸如RCA301型的最先進(jìn)電腦。而那些簽了工會(huì)合同的報(bào)紙，包括紐約市內(nèi)的那些報(bào)紙，則遭遇了來(lái)自工會(huì)領(lǐng)袖的激烈抵制，后者能夠輕易看出自動(dòng)化會(huì)導(dǎo)致失業(yè)?！?/p>
當(dāng)然，那場(chǎng)報(bào)業(yè)罷工并沒(méi)有阻止未來(lái)的到來(lái)。如果它起到什么作用的話(huà)，也僅僅是加速了無(wú)數(shù)報(bào)紙的死亡。那時(shí)的工會(huì)領(lǐng)袖們沒(méi)能理解（或者不想接受）的一點(diǎn)是，在一個(gè)正在被科技顛覆的行業(yè)里，沒(méi)有什么能夠阻止、延緩或者躲開(kāi)科技。你只能想辦法調(diào)整適應(yīng)，不然就有別人這么做。
好萊塢在很大程度上已經(jīng)避開(kāi)了影響其他媒體行業(yè)的那些混亂，但現(xiàn)在卻被迫直面自己難以逃避的命運(yùn)。和新聞行業(yè)不同——在那里，科技的發(fā)展已經(jīng)大大削減了利潤(rùn)空間，好萊塢仍然紙醉金迷，支撐著包括代理商和中間人的一整套生態(tài)體系，這些人什么也不干，提供的附加值很少，卻因其服務(wù)獲得了難以置信的高額酬金。
本周早些時(shí)候的一天，我還在床上躺著時(shí)，突然感覺(jué)房屋短暫震顫。我迅速上谷歌搜索“地震、洛杉磯”，然后就看到《洛杉磯時(shí)報(bào)》網(wǎng)站剛剛貼出來(lái)的一篇文章，該文說(shuō)明在距我家?guī)子⒗镩_(kāi)外的地方有輕微地震發(fā)生，列出了里氏震級(jí)和其他幾個(gè)相關(guān)細(xì)節(jié)。然而，在文章末尾，我卻沒(méi)有看到作者的署名，而是得知這篇文章是由一種算法寫(xiě)就的。根據(jù)我的判斷，沒(méi)有人類(lèi)智慧參與這篇文章的書(shū)寫(xiě)過(guò)程。那些關(guān)于股票、體育和其他任何涉及能由電腦而非人生成數(shù)字及數(shù)據(jù)的報(bào)道同樣如此。
要不了多久，機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)也會(huì)對(duì)好萊塢的工作產(chǎn)生影響。我?guī)啄昵皡⒂^麻省理工學(xué)院的時(shí)候，教授們給我介紹了他們正如何研發(fā)可以用于編寫(xiě)劇本和剪輯電影的人工智能。如今，算法已經(jīng)實(shí)際參與劇本的編寫(xiě)。算法也成為娛樂(lè)業(yè)的明星。那么，電影公司將來(lái)如果與某演員就拍續(xù)集的片酬問(wèn)題產(chǎn)生分歧，就可以直接選擇電腦合成其影像了吧——這種情況還要多久才會(huì)出現(xiàn)？
更可怕的是，未來(lái)我們的智能電視可能反過(guò)來(lái)觀察我們。多年前，我看過(guò)某一程序的安全示例代碼，情報(bào)機(jī)關(guān)可以用它來(lái)追蹤人們?cè)陂喿x屏幕上文字時(shí)眼睛的移動(dòng)情況。其主要目的是為了確保只有目標(biāo)接收者才能閱讀解密信息，但這個(gè)軟件還可以用來(lái)監(jiān)視瞳孔的移動(dòng)和擴(kuò)張、面部動(dòng)作和心跳速度，從而判斷觀看者是否投入、緊張、激動(dòng)等等。這一技術(shù)手段能否應(yīng)用在電視觀眾身上？奈飛公司其實(shí)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始追蹤觀眾會(huì)偏愛(ài)哪些劇集圖標(biāo)，并調(diào)整它們的呈現(xiàn)方式以最大化地提高觀眾點(diǎn)擊的可能性?，F(xiàn)在，想象一下這樣的世界：奈飛之類(lèi)的公司真能“看”出來(lái)觀眾是否覺(jué)得無(wú)聊、某個(gè)笑話(huà)是否奏效、某個(gè)場(chǎng)景是否足夠刺激，如此等等。
在某些方面，那樣的未來(lái)已經(jīng)來(lái)到眼前。去年，在對(duì)《發(fā)展受阻》災(zāi)難性的第四季進(jìn)行大量數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析后，奈飛公司決定重新剪輯整個(gè)第四季，將每集縮短并重新安排場(chǎng)景，使其按時(shí)間順序排列，而非原本的聚焦于一位人物。這個(gè)重新剪輯版并不完美，但接受度相對(duì)較高?；蛟S更重要的是，它證明了以下觀點(diǎn)：內(nèi)容并不需要重新修訂，但可以通過(guò)演化來(lái)適應(yīng)觀眾需求。在《發(fā)展受阻》這個(gè)例子中，劇集創(chuàng)作者米切爾·赫維茨親自出馬重新剪輯。然而，很快，或許作品就能自我剪輯了。在某個(gè)大電影公司近期的一次會(huì)議上，我聽(tīng)說(shuō)了這么一項(xiàng)技術(shù)，公司用該技術(shù)分析那些獲獎(jiǎng)影視劇的剪輯方式，并探索電腦可否以同樣的精準(zhǔn)度來(lái)剪輯內(nèi)容。你下班回到家，只消說(shuō)：“嘿，亞歷克莎，給我做個(gè)定制喜劇，主角要女的，地點(diǎn)設(shè)在紐約，16分鐘長(zhǎng)，我要在晚餐前看?！庇谑牵褡兡g(shù)一樣，你就會(huì)看到這么個(gè)作品。
將正在好萊塢發(fā)生的事和已經(jīng)發(fā)生在別的行業(yè)的事做個(gè)比較，或許好萊塢的工會(huì)還有機(jī)會(huì)保證在此謀生的員工不會(huì)像優(yōu)步司機(jī)和新聞?dòng)浾吣菢酉萑刖骄?。正如一位作家向我解釋的：“一旦行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)被顛覆，就會(huì)看到產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量和從業(yè)人員收入整體下降：從業(yè)人員薪酬減少，沒(méi)有健康保險(xiǎn)，擁有的權(quán)力自然也會(huì)減少。行業(yè)顛覆對(duì)勞動(dòng)力而言從事都不是好事，雖然對(duì)消費(fèi)者是好事?！?/p>
大多數(shù)美國(guó)人認(rèn)為好萊塢已經(jīng)被技術(shù)所顛覆。他們將奈飛和亞馬遜Prime會(huì)員，以及能在自己的蘋(píng)果手機(jī)上觀看《權(quán)力的游戲》這一事實(shí)，視作一個(gè)標(biāo)志，說(shuō)明好萊塢已經(jīng)歷過(guò)它無(wú)法避免的技術(shù)改革。但是這種堂吉訶德式的想法類(lèi)似1962年報(bào)業(yè)工會(huì)看到RCA301型計(jì)算機(jī)到來(lái)時(shí)的那種想法，天真地以為這會(huì)是我們此生經(jīng)歷的對(duì)新聞業(yè)的唯一威脅。事實(shí)上，那只是小菜一碟?，F(xiàn)在，流媒體播放平臺(tái)亦是如此。所有這些公司迄今做過(guò)的其實(shí)就是改變我們獲得內(nèi)容的方式;在生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)，創(chuàng)意作品仍然混亂到令人沮喪的程度，并且完全依靠人力。無(wú)論相信與否，好萊塢仍然有待進(jìn)一步顛覆。問(wèn)題是，帶來(lái)顛覆的將會(huì)是人類(lèi)，還是硅谷某處的計(jì)算機(jī)？
（譯者單位：北京外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)）
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尼克·比爾頓
Hollywood may be the last creative industry not to be hollowed out1 by technology. What happens when Silicon Valley2 starts replacing screenwriters with bots， and your favorite actress with C.G.I.3？ In some corners of Los Angeles， the future is already here.好萊塢或許是最后一個(gè)尚未被科技顛覆的創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)了。假如硅谷開(kāi)始用機(jī)器人來(lái)替代編劇，用電腦成像來(lái)替代你最喜歡的女演員，那會(huì)發(fā)生什么？在洛杉磯的某些角落，這種未來(lái)已經(jīng)到來(lái)。
Shortly after midnight on December 8， 1962， on West 43rd Street in Manhattan， right at the epicenter of the world， hundreds of people who worked in the newspaper industry walked out of the New York Times building and into the cold streets to begin a strike that would last 114 days. About 17，000 newspaper employees， from pressmen to paper handlers， elevator operators to reporters， joined the picket lines4. “At its core， the New York newspaper strike was a battle over technology，” Scott Sherman wrote in Vanity Fair. “The 1950s and 1960s saw the emergence of computerized typesetting systems that would revolutionize the newspaper composing room. Newspapers that prohibited unions， such as the Los Angeles Times， rushed to install cutting-edge computers such as the RCA 301. Newspapers with union contracts， including those in New York City， faced tempestuous5 resistance from labor leaders， who could easily see that automation would cost jobs.”
Of course， the newspaper strike didnt stop the future. If anything， it simply hastened the demise6 of numerous newspapers. What the union leaders at the time didnt understand （or want to accept） was that technology cannot be stopped， slowed， or avoided in an industry that is being disrupted. Either you find a way to adapt， or someone else does.
Hollywood， which has mostly avoided the dislocations affecting the rest of the media industry， now faces its own moment of reckoning7. Unlike journalism， where technology has decimated profit margins， Tinseltown8 is still living high on the hog9， sustaining an entire ecosystem of agents and middlemen who do nothing， add little value， and get paid incredibly well for their services.
Earlier this week， as I was lying in bed， I felt our house rattle very briefly. I quickly Googled “earthquake Los Angeles，” and found myself reading an article that had just been written on the L.A. Times Web site， explaining that a tremor had occurred a few miles from my house， its level on the Richter scale， and a few other pertinent10 details. Yet， at the end of the article， instead of a byline， I learned that the piece had been written by an algorithm. As far as I could tell， no human intelligence had been involved. The same is true for stories about stocks， sports， and anything else that involves numbers and data that can be created by a computer rather than a person.
It wont be long before machine learning11 begins to impact jobs in Hollywood， too. A few years ago， on a tour at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology， professors explained to me how they were exploring A.I. that could be used to write screenplays and edit films. Now， algorithms are actually co-writing screenplays. Computer algorithms are the stars of our shows， too. How long will it be before a film studio， after fighting with an actor about their pay for a sequel， simply animates them instead？
More frightening is a future in which our smart TVs can watch us back. Years ago， I saw a security demo12 for a program that could be used by spy agencies to track peoples eyes as they read words on a screen. The primary purpose was to ensure that only the intended recipient could read a decrypted message， but the software could also monitor pupil movement and dilation， facial movements， and heartbeat speed to determine if viewers were engaged， nervous， excited， and so on. Could that same technology be applied to an audience watching a TV show？ Already， Netflix tracks which show icons you linger on， and adjusts how they are presented to maximize the likelihood that you will click. Now imagine a world in which Netflix and its ilk can literally see when you get bored， if a joke works or falls flat， if a scene isnt exciting enough， and so on.
In some ways， that future is already here. Last year， after crunching the numbers13 on Arrested Developments disastrous fourth installment14， Netflix decided to recut the entire season， shortening the episodes and re-arranging scenes so that they were chronological rather than based around a single character. The remix wasnt perfect， but it was comparatively well received. Perhaps more important， it served as a proof of concept for the idea that content doesnt need to be fixed， but can evolve to suit an audience. In the case of Arrested Development， series creator Mitchell Hurwitz stepped in to recut the show. Soon， however， shows may be able to recut themselves. During a recent meeting at one of the big studios， I heard about a technology that is analyzing the way award-winning movies and TV shows are edited， and exploring if a computer can edit content with the same precision. You come home from work and say， “Hey， Alexa， make me a personalized comedy with a female lead set in New York that is 16 minutes long so I can watch it before dinner.” Then， like magic， thats what youre watching.
When you compare what is happening in Hollywood to what has happened in every other industry， maybe Hollywood unions have a chance to ensure that the people who make a living here dont get screwed over like Uber drivers and journalists did. As one writer explained to me， “When guilds of any kind have been disrupted， you see a complete degradation for the quality of work and pay for the people who work in those industries： they make less money， have no health insurance， and certainly have less power. Disruption has not been good for labor， even if it has been good for consumers.”
Most Americans think Hollywood has already been disrupted by technology. They look at Netflix， Amazon Prime， and the fact that they can stream Game of Thrones on their iPhone as a sign that Hollywood has gone through its inevitable technology changes already. But that quixotic thinking is akin to the newspaper unions of 1962 seeing the upcoming RCA 301 as the only disruption that would happen to newsrooms in our lifetime. In reality， that was nothing. The same is true with the streaming-video platforms today. All these companies have really done is change how we get our content; on the production side， creative work is frustratingly messy and entirely human. Hollywood， whether it believes it or not， is still ripe for disruption. The question is： will it be people who do the disrupting， or a computer somewhere in Silicon Valley？
1962年12月8日剛過(guò)午夜，就在那次震動(dòng)世界的運(yùn)動(dòng)中心，曼哈頓西43街，成百上千的報(bào)業(yè)人士走出《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》的大樓，走上寒冷的街道，開(kāi)始了一場(chǎng)持續(xù)114天的罷工。約有1.7萬(wàn)名報(bào)業(yè)雇員，從印刷工到紙工，從電梯工到記者，參加了這場(chǎng)罷工。“究其實(shí)質(zhì)，紐約的報(bào)業(yè)罷工是一場(chǎng)針對(duì)技術(shù)的戰(zhàn)斗?！彼箍铺亍ど崧凇睹麍?chǎng)》雜志撰文寫(xiě)道，“20世紀(jì)50年代和60年代，電腦控制的排版系統(tǒng)出現(xiàn)，給報(bào)業(yè)的排字房帶來(lái)了革命性的影響。禁止工會(huì)活動(dòng)的報(bào)紙，例如《洛杉磯時(shí)報(bào)》，火速安裝了諸如RCA301型的最先進(jìn)電腦。而那些簽了工會(huì)合同的報(bào)紙，包括紐約市內(nèi)的那些報(bào)紙，則遭遇了來(lái)自工會(huì)領(lǐng)袖的激烈抵制，后者能夠輕易看出自動(dòng)化會(huì)導(dǎo)致失業(yè)?！?/p>
當(dāng)然，那場(chǎng)報(bào)業(yè)罷工并沒(méi)有阻止未來(lái)的到來(lái)。如果它起到什么作用的話(huà)，也僅僅是加速了無(wú)數(shù)報(bào)紙的死亡。那時(shí)的工會(huì)領(lǐng)袖們沒(méi)能理解（或者不想接受）的一點(diǎn)是，在一個(gè)正在被科技顛覆的行業(yè)里，沒(méi)有什么能夠阻止、延緩或者躲開(kāi)科技。你只能想辦法調(diào)整適應(yīng)，不然就有別人這么做。
好萊塢在很大程度上已經(jīng)避開(kāi)了影響其他媒體行業(yè)的那些混亂，但現(xiàn)在卻被迫直面自己難以逃避的命運(yùn)。和新聞行業(yè)不同——在那里，科技的發(fā)展已經(jīng)大大削減了利潤(rùn)空間，好萊塢仍然紙醉金迷，支撐著包括代理商和中間人的一整套生態(tài)體系，這些人什么也不干，提供的附加值很少，卻因其服務(wù)獲得了難以置信的高額酬金。
本周早些時(shí)候的一天，我還在床上躺著時(shí)，突然感覺(jué)房屋短暫震顫。我迅速上谷歌搜索“地震、洛杉磯”，然后就看到《洛杉磯時(shí)報(bào)》網(wǎng)站剛剛貼出來(lái)的一篇文章，該文說(shuō)明在距我家?guī)子⒗镩_(kāi)外的地方有輕微地震發(fā)生，列出了里氏震級(jí)和其他幾個(gè)相關(guān)細(xì)節(jié)。然而，在文章末尾，我卻沒(méi)有看到作者的署名，而是得知這篇文章是由一種算法寫(xiě)就的。根據(jù)我的判斷，沒(méi)有人類(lèi)智慧參與這篇文章的書(shū)寫(xiě)過(guò)程。那些關(guān)于股票、體育和其他任何涉及能由電腦而非人生成數(shù)字及數(shù)據(jù)的報(bào)道同樣如此。
要不了多久，機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)也會(huì)對(duì)好萊塢的工作產(chǎn)生影響。我?guī)啄昵皡⒂^麻省理工學(xué)院的時(shí)候，教授們給我介紹了他們正如何研發(fā)可以用于編寫(xiě)劇本和剪輯電影的人工智能。如今，算法已經(jīng)實(shí)際參與劇本的編寫(xiě)。算法也成為娛樂(lè)業(yè)的明星。那么，電影公司將來(lái)如果與某演員就拍續(xù)集的片酬問(wèn)題產(chǎn)生分歧，就可以直接選擇電腦合成其影像了吧——這種情況還要多久才會(huì)出現(xiàn)？
更可怕的是，未來(lái)我們的智能電視可能反過(guò)來(lái)觀察我們。多年前，我看過(guò)某一程序的安全示例代碼，情報(bào)機(jī)關(guān)可以用它來(lái)追蹤人們?cè)陂喿x屏幕上文字時(shí)眼睛的移動(dòng)情況。其主要目的是為了確保只有目標(biāo)接收者才能閱讀解密信息，但這個(gè)軟件還可以用來(lái)監(jiān)視瞳孔的移動(dòng)和擴(kuò)張、面部動(dòng)作和心跳速度，從而判斷觀看者是否投入、緊張、激動(dòng)等等。這一技術(shù)手段能否應(yīng)用在電視觀眾身上？奈飛公司其實(shí)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始追蹤觀眾會(huì)偏愛(ài)哪些劇集圖標(biāo)，并調(diào)整它們的呈現(xiàn)方式以最大化地提高觀眾點(diǎn)擊的可能性?，F(xiàn)在，想象一下這樣的世界：奈飛之類(lèi)的公司真能“看”出來(lái)觀眾是否覺(jué)得無(wú)聊、某個(gè)笑話(huà)是否奏效、某個(gè)場(chǎng)景是否足夠刺激，如此等等。
在某些方面，那樣的未來(lái)已經(jīng)來(lái)到眼前。去年，在對(duì)《發(fā)展受阻》災(zāi)難性的第四季進(jìn)行大量數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析后，奈飛公司決定重新剪輯整個(gè)第四季，將每集縮短并重新安排場(chǎng)景，使其按時(shí)間順序排列，而非原本的聚焦于一位人物。這個(gè)重新剪輯版并不完美，但接受度相對(duì)較高?；蛟S更重要的是，它證明了以下觀點(diǎn)：內(nèi)容并不需要重新修訂，但可以通過(guò)演化來(lái)適應(yīng)觀眾需求。在《發(fā)展受阻》這個(gè)例子中，劇集創(chuàng)作者米切爾·赫維茨親自出馬重新剪輯。然而，很快，或許作品就能自我剪輯了。在某個(gè)大電影公司近期的一次會(huì)議上，我聽(tīng)說(shuō)了這么一項(xiàng)技術(shù)，公司用該技術(shù)分析那些獲獎(jiǎng)影視劇的剪輯方式，并探索電腦可否以同樣的精準(zhǔn)度來(lái)剪輯內(nèi)容。你下班回到家，只消說(shuō)：“嘿，亞歷克莎，給我做個(gè)定制喜劇，主角要女的，地點(diǎn)設(shè)在紐約，16分鐘長(zhǎng)，我要在晚餐前看?！庇谑牵褡兡g(shù)一樣，你就會(huì)看到這么個(gè)作品。
將正在好萊塢發(fā)生的事和已經(jīng)發(fā)生在別的行業(yè)的事做個(gè)比較，或許好萊塢的工會(huì)還有機(jī)會(huì)保證在此謀生的員工不會(huì)像優(yōu)步司機(jī)和新聞?dòng)浾吣菢酉萑刖骄?。正如一位作家向我解釋的：“一旦行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)被顛覆，就會(huì)看到產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量和從業(yè)人員收入整體下降：從業(yè)人員薪酬減少，沒(méi)有健康保險(xiǎn)，擁有的權(quán)力自然也會(huì)減少。行業(yè)顛覆對(duì)勞動(dòng)力而言從事都不是好事，雖然對(duì)消費(fèi)者是好事?！?/p>
大多數(shù)美國(guó)人認(rèn)為好萊塢已經(jīng)被技術(shù)所顛覆。他們將奈飛和亞馬遜Prime會(huì)員，以及能在自己的蘋(píng)果手機(jī)上觀看《權(quán)力的游戲》這一事實(shí)，視作一個(gè)標(biāo)志，說(shuō)明好萊塢已經(jīng)歷過(guò)它無(wú)法避免的技術(shù)改革。但是這種堂吉訶德式的想法類(lèi)似1962年報(bào)業(yè)工會(huì)看到RCA301型計(jì)算機(jī)到來(lái)時(shí)的那種想法，天真地以為這會(huì)是我們此生經(jīng)歷的對(duì)新聞業(yè)的唯一威脅。事實(shí)上，那只是小菜一碟?，F(xiàn)在，流媒體播放平臺(tái)亦是如此。所有這些公司迄今做過(guò)的其實(shí)就是改變我們獲得內(nèi)容的方式;在生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)，創(chuàng)意作品仍然混亂到令人沮喪的程度，并且完全依靠人力。無(wú)論相信與否，好萊塢仍然有待進(jìn)一步顛覆。問(wèn)題是，帶來(lái)顛覆的將會(huì)是人類(lèi)，還是硅谷某處的計(jì)算機(jī)？
（譯者單位：北京外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)）
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