吳智偉　何園園

摘 要：基于未確知測(cè)度理論，建立改進(jìn)的公路風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型。首先，運(yùn)用相關(guān)性分析確定影響公路風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要指標(biāo)，并以此建立評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和評(píng)價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn);然后根據(jù)實(shí)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)建立各影響因素的未確知測(cè)度函數(shù)，并利用信息熵理論計(jì)算各影響因素的指標(biāo)權(quán)重，依照置信度識(shí)別準(zhǔn)則判定等級(jí);最后，得出公路風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果。該評(píng)價(jià)方法可以解決公路風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)中的因素不確定性問(wèn)題，并可解決原模型中指標(biāo)極值的影響。運(yùn)用本方法對(duì)青島市某條公路進(jìn)行公路風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估，并與原方法進(jìn)行比較，結(jié)果表明，該方法科學(xué)合理，有一定的實(shí)際應(yīng)用價(jià)值。

關(guān)鍵詞：未確知測(cè)度;交通工程;公路風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估;相關(guān)性分析;信息熵

Abstract： Based on the unascertained measure theory， an improved highway risk assessment model is established. First， we use the correlation analysis to determine the main indicators that affect the highway risk， and establish the evaluation index system and evaluation criteria， and then establish the unascertained measure function of the influencing factors according to the measured data， and use the information entropy theory to calculate the index weight of the influencing factors and determine the grade according to the confidence recognition criteria; finally， the evaluation results of the highway risk are obtained. The evaluation method can solve the problem of uncertainty in highway risk assessment and solve the influence of extreme value in the original model. This method is used to evaluate the risk of a highway in Qingdao and compares it with the original method. The result shows that the method is scientific and reasonable and has some practical application value.

Key words：Unascertained measure; traffic engineering; highway risk assessment; correlation analysis; information entropy