李帥帥，張雄智，劉冰洋，趙 鑫，張海林

Meta分析湖南省雙季稻田甲烷排放影響因素

李帥帥，張雄智，劉冰洋，趙 鑫，張海林※

（中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)農(nóng)學(xué)院，農(nóng)業(yè)部農(nóng)作制度重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室，北京 100193）

稻田是農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中甲烷的主要排放源。探索不同農(nóng)田管理措施對(duì)甲烷排放的影響，對(duì)湖南省雙季稻可持續(xù)生產(chǎn)意義重大。該研究利用Meta分析方法，基于該區(qū)域53篇公開(kāi)發(fā)表研究文章中收集的840對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：湖南省雙季稻田中，雙季稻甲烷排放占全年甲烷排放的97.9%，且晚稻甲烷排放顯著大于早稻；冬閑期種植作物顯著增加了雙季稻田43.88%（< 0.05）的甲烷排放；免耕和復(fù)合種養(yǎng)（稻田養(yǎng)鴨、稻田養(yǎng)魚(yú)等）則分別顯著降低了雙季稻26.84%、37.02%（< 0.05）的甲烷排放；另一方面，從單位產(chǎn)量甲烷排放來(lái)看，施氮肥顯著降低了雙季稻40.01%（< 0.05）排放量，這主要是由于水稻產(chǎn)量顯著提高了73.87%（< 0.05）；施有機(jī)肥和秸稈還田顯著增加稻田甲烷排放量，顯著增加了68.11%、71.80%（< 0.05）的雙季稻單位產(chǎn)量甲烷排放量。研究結(jié)果表明，在湖南雙季稻生產(chǎn)中合理采用免耕、復(fù)合種養(yǎng)措施并合理化肥料投入等措施有利于平衡該區(qū)域水稻增產(chǎn)與甲烷減排。

甲烷；耕作；肥；雙季稻田；Meta分析

0 引 言

全球氣候變暖已經(jīng)是科學(xué)界的共識(shí)，溫室氣體是氣候變暖的主要原因。CH4是主要的溫室氣體之一，單位質(zhì)量CH4綜合增溫效應(yīng)在100a時(shí)間尺度上是CO2的28倍。大氣中CH4含量顯著增加，在2012年高達(dá)1.82×10-6，與工業(yè)革命前相比提高了約1.5倍[1]。據(jù)估算，在主要溫室氣體排放中約60%的CH4來(lái)自于農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)[2]，稻田被認(rèn)為是農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中CH4的主要排放源，其排放約占全球人為源CH4排放總量的11%[2]。水稻作為重要的糧食作物，關(guān)系到中國(guó)糧食安全問(wèn)題。雙季稻播種面積約占中國(guó)水稻總播種面積的40%[3]，對(duì)保障中國(guó)糧食安全、促進(jìn)農(nóng)民增收具有重要意義。湖南省作為典型的雙季稻區(qū)，2015年和2016年湖南省雙季稻播種面積均超過(guò)了水稻播種總面積的70%[3]。水稻種植過(guò)程中由于灌溉形成的淹水環(huán)境促進(jìn)了CH4的產(chǎn)生與排放[4]。與單季稻相比，雙季稻農(nóng)田淹水時(shí)間超過(guò)1.5倍，從而排放了更多的甲烷[5]。此外，秸稈還田和施用有機(jī)肥，會(huì)提供大量產(chǎn)甲烷基質(zhì)，使稻田CH4排放顯著增加。因此，在全球氣候變暖的趨勢(shì)下，如何有效平衡減少溫室氣體排放與維持（或提高）水稻產(chǎn)量之間的關(guān)系，逐漸成為農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)需要應(yīng)對(duì)的重要挑戰(zhàn)[6]。

農(nóng)田管理措施會(huì)顯著影響稻田CH4排放。在南方雙季稻區(qū)，冬季種植綠肥并還田會(huì)給土壤帶來(lái)大量的易分解有機(jī)質(zhì)，為土壤產(chǎn)CH4菌提供更多的反應(yīng)底物從而促進(jìn)厭氧條件下CH4排放[7]。與傳統(tǒng)耕作相比，免耕（尤其是長(zhǎng)期免耕）能有效減少CH4排放。伍芬琳等通過(guò)在湖南雙季稻田進(jìn)行大田試驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)，與旋耕、翻耕相比，免耕顯著減少早稻季、晚稻季CH4排放量[8]。Zhao等通過(guò)Meta分析的方法研究免耕對(duì)中國(guó)稻田甲烷排放的影響，結(jié)果顯示與翻耕相比，免耕會(huì)降低約30%的CH4排放[9]-。由于良好的生態(tài)環(huán)境效應(yīng)和市場(chǎng)對(duì)綠色安全稻米的需求，稻田養(yǎng)鴨、稻田養(yǎng)魚(yú)、稻田養(yǎng)蝦等復(fù)合種養(yǎng)模式在中國(guó)不斷推廣[10]。復(fù)合種養(yǎng)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中，鴨子、魚(yú)對(duì)水體的擾動(dòng)加快了稻田土壤氣體的交換，土壤氧化還原電位升高，減少了CH4的產(chǎn)生。此外，氮肥對(duì)CH4排放的影響存在爭(zhēng)議，Shang等在湖南進(jìn)行的長(zhǎng)期肥料試驗(yàn)表明，施用氮肥會(huì)增加稻田CH4排放[11]，但Dong等研究發(fā)現(xiàn)在水稻土中添加氮肥，CH4排放量減少了38%～49％[12]。施用氮肥對(duì)CH4排放的影響機(jī)制復(fù)雜，主要會(huì)在植株-生態(tài)系統(tǒng)水平、微生物群落水平、生物化學(xué)水平3個(gè)層次上影響CH4排放，結(jié)果取決于這3個(gè)方面影響因素的相對(duì)強(qiáng)弱[13]。稻田施用有機(jī)肥提供了易分解有機(jī)碳作為產(chǎn)CH4底物，增加CH4排放[14]。

目前國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)稻田CH4排放的研究一般通過(guò)大田試驗(yàn)研究某項(xiàng)農(nóng)田管理措施對(duì)稻田溫室氣體排放的影響。由于各試驗(yàn)位點(diǎn)間土壤性質(zhì)、氣候條件等不同，試驗(yàn)結(jié)果往往存在差異。此外，目前的研究中特別缺乏從區(qū)域尺度或全國(guó)尺度系統(tǒng)揭示農(nóng)田管理措施對(duì)稻田溫室氣體排放影響的研究。中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)已經(jīng)由單純追求高產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)為“高產(chǎn)、優(yōu)質(zhì)、高效、生態(tài)、安全”的綠色發(fā)展理念。在全球氣候變暖的大背景下，稻田作為主要的CH4排放源，水稻生產(chǎn)中應(yīng)該注重產(chǎn)量與溫室氣體的排放的平衡。本次研究以湖南省雙季稻區(qū)為例，基于發(fā)表文獻(xiàn)中的大田試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)Meta分析，探究農(nóng)田管理措施對(duì)稻田甲烷排放的影響，為當(dāng)?shù)厮旧a(chǎn)中管理措施的改進(jìn)提供可行性建議。

1 材料與方法

1.1 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源與篩選

本研究以“水稻或稻田”和“甲烷”為關(guān)鍵詞分別在web of science和中國(guó)知網(wǎng)（CNKI）進(jìn)行文獻(xiàn)檢索，收集篩選2018年以前經(jīng)過(guò)同行評(píng)議發(fā)表的關(guān)于農(nóng)田管理措施影響湖南雙季稻田CH4排放的期刊論文。所選論文須為在中國(guó)湖南省開(kāi)展的田間對(duì)比試驗(yàn)，不包含宏觀評(píng)價(jià)類、綜述類、室內(nèi)培養(yǎng)及模型模擬類的論文。研究所利用的文獻(xiàn)滿足以下條件[15]：

1）水稻生育期CH4累積排放量直接給出，或者可通過(guò)CH4排放通量、水稻大田生育期等數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算得到；

2）CH4測(cè)定方法為靜態(tài)箱法，水稻全生育期進(jìn)行CH4取樣、測(cè)定；

3）論文中明確說(shuō)明試驗(yàn)重復(fù)數(shù)，試驗(yàn)位點(diǎn)位于湖南省，并且論文提供了詳細(xì)的試驗(yàn)位點(diǎn)；

4）論文中給出了不同處理、對(duì)照與其他農(nóng)田管理措施（如耕作、施肥、灌溉等；或說(shuō)明除處理、對(duì)照外其他農(nóng)田管理措施相同）的細(xì)節(jié)。

經(jīng)過(guò)篩選，最終獲得論文53篇，可進(jìn)行分析的試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)840對(duì)（表1）。

表1 納入Meta分析的文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)信息

1.2 數(shù)據(jù)處理與分析

在收集的文獻(xiàn)中，若已提供稻田CH4排放量，則直接將其數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)用于分析；對(duì)于給出排放通量的，根據(jù)水稻生育期計(jì)算得到排放總量。對(duì)于以每hm2CO2當(dāng)量（CO2-eq/hm2）表達(dá)排放量的，查看文章中材料與方法部分CH4增溫潛勢(shì)，將其除以25或28得到排放量[2]；另外，對(duì)于用CH4-C表達(dá)排放量的，以分子質(zhì)量為轉(zhuǎn)換因子即CH4除以系數(shù)12/16得到排放量。

本研究參考了Pittelkow等[67]的方法使用試驗(yàn)重復(fù)數(shù)計(jì)算得到權(quán)重。

通過(guò)Meta分析運(yùn)算得到每對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的效應(yīng)值，計(jì)算權(quán)重加權(quán)平均后得到綜合效應(yīng)值。同時(shí)，利用Bootstrapping方法通過(guò)4 999次迭代計(jì)算其95%的置信區(qū)間。為了便于理解，通過(guò)式（3）計(jì)算得到CH4排放量的變化百分?jǐn)?shù)

式中RC為處理組相對(duì)于對(duì)照組稻田CH4排放增加或者下降的百分比，%。

本文共對(duì)水稻產(chǎn)量、稻田CH4排放量、單位產(chǎn)量CH4排放量3個(gè)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行分析。其余指標(biāo)效應(yīng)值、變化百分?jǐn)?shù)等的確定方法與CH4排放一致。

由于秸稈還田、氮肥施用情況等不同農(nóng)田管理措施對(duì)稻田CH4排放影響不同。因此，對(duì)已有的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分組，來(lái)檢驗(yàn)?zāi)骋惶囟ㄞr(nóng)田管理措施對(duì)稻田CH4排放（表2）的影響，采用 Sigma Plot 12.0軟件進(jìn)行作圖。

表2 農(nóng)田管理措施對(duì)水稻產(chǎn)量及稻田CH4排放影響的數(shù)據(jù)分組

2 結(jié)果與分析

2.1 CH4排放占比情況

在收集到的53篇文獻(xiàn)中，共有19對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)給出了冬閑期CH4排放量和周年CH4排放總量。通過(guò)計(jì)算平均值（表3），發(fā)現(xiàn)冬閑期CH4排放量?jī)H占全年CH4排放總量的2.1%，稻田全年97.9%的CH4排放來(lái)自水稻生長(zhǎng)季，其中早稻占38.01%，晚稻占59.89%，晚稻CH4排放顯著大于早稻。

表3 早稻季、晚稻季和冬閑期CH4排放量及占全年CH4排放比例

2.2 農(nóng)田管理措施對(duì)雙季稻田CH4排放量的影響

2.2.1 稻作制度、復(fù)合種養(yǎng)及耕作方式對(duì)雙季稻田CH4排放的影響

調(diào)整稻作制度，稻田冬季種植綠肥（黑麥草、紫云英）、油菜和馬鈴薯等會(huì)增加稻田CH4排放，免耕和復(fù)合種養(yǎng)（稻田養(yǎng)鴨、稻田養(yǎng)魚(yú)等）會(huì)顯著降低稻田CH4排放（圖1）。稻田冬季種植綠肥并還田顯著增加冬閑期稻田CH4排放量132.20%（< 0.05），顯著增加雙季稻CH4排放量43.88%（< 0.05）。對(duì)早稻CH4排放的促進(jìn)作用顯著大于晚稻，顯著增加早稻CH4排放量76.46%（< 0.05），顯著增加晚稻CH4排放量24.83%（< 0.05）。

與僅種植水稻相比，復(fù)合種養(yǎng)會(huì)顯著減少雙季稻CH4排放量37.02%（< 0.05）。其中顯著減少早稻CH4排放量33.73%（< 0.05），顯著減少晚稻CH4排放量30.99%（< 0.05）。與翻耕相比，免耕顯著減少雙季稻CH4排放量26.84%（< 0.05），其中顯著減少早稻CH4排放量27.18%（< 0.05），顯著減少晚稻CH4排放量21.39%（< 0.05）。

注：誤差線表示95%置信區(qū)間。

Figure 1 Effects of crop rotation, symbiosis ecosystem and tillage methods on CH4emissions from double cropping rice fields

2.2.2 施氮肥、施有機(jī)肥及秸稈還田對(duì)雙季稻田CH4排放的影響

施氮肥會(huì)顯著降低稻田單位產(chǎn)量CH4排放量，主要是通過(guò)顯著增加水稻產(chǎn)量而對(duì)稻田CH4排放量無(wú)明顯影響來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)的（表4）。施氮肥會(huì)顯著增加雙季稻產(chǎn)量73.87%（< 0.05），導(dǎo)致雙季稻單位產(chǎn)量CH4排放量顯著減少40.01%（< 0.05）。分別增加早稻、晚稻產(chǎn)量103.44%、43.52%（< 0.05），最終降低早稻單位產(chǎn)量CH4排放量47.73%（< 0.05），晚稻單位產(chǎn)量CH4排放量17.24%（< 0.05）。

表4還表明，施有機(jī)肥和秸稈還田會(huì)顯著增加稻田CH4排放量，對(duì)水稻產(chǎn)量無(wú)顯著影響，因此會(huì)顯著增加單位產(chǎn)量CH4排放量。施有機(jī)肥顯著增加早稻、晚稻和雙季稻CH4排放量79.44%、81.21%、73.37%（< 0.05），最終顯著增加早稻、晚稻和雙季稻單位產(chǎn)量CH4排放量69.22%、75.21%、68.11%（< 0.05）。秸稈還田顯著增加早稻、晚稻和雙季稻CH4排放量73.41%、119.78%、111.67%（< 0.05），最終顯著增加早稻、晚稻和雙季稻單位產(chǎn)量CH4排放量117.41%、108.21%、71.80%（< 0.05）。

%

表4 施肥及秸稈還田對(duì)雙季稻產(chǎn)量及CH4排放的變化百分?jǐn)?shù)的影響

3 討 論

3.1 稻作制度、施有機(jī)肥及秸稈還田對(duì)稻田CH4排放的影響

冬季種植紫云英等綠肥作物并在早稻移栽前還田、施有機(jī)肥、秸稈還田都會(huì)促進(jìn)CH4排放。三者原理相近，都提供了大量的易分解有機(jī)質(zhì)作為產(chǎn)CH4底物。另一方面，淹水條件下有機(jī)物的快速分解加速稻田氧化還原電位（Eh）的下降，有利于產(chǎn)CH4菌生長(zhǎng)和保持活性，從而促進(jìn)稻田CH4排放[68-69]。

本研究得出綠肥還田會(huì)顯著增加早稻CH4排放量76.46%（< 0.05），顯著增加晚稻CH4排放量24.83%（< 0.05），對(duì)晚稻CH4排放的促進(jìn)作用遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于早稻。原因是早稻季綠肥剛翻埋還田，可以提供大量的易降解有機(jī)質(zhì)。綠肥作物經(jīng)過(guò)早稻季腐解，晚稻季雖然仍可繼續(xù)提供易降解有機(jī)質(zhì)，但數(shù)量已明顯減少。這與朱波等[70]通過(guò)盆栽試驗(yàn)觀測(cè)黑麥草翻埋還田對(duì)雙季稻CH4排放影響的結(jié)果相近，試驗(yàn)觀測(cè)到約60%的CH4排放來(lái)自早稻移栽前和早稻生長(zhǎng)期。

3.2 施氮肥、耕作方式及復(fù)合種養(yǎng)對(duì)稻田CH4排放的影響

與不施氮肥相比，早稻季和晚稻季施氮并未觀察到CH4排放存在顯著差異?？傮w上，氮肥施用對(duì)稻田生態(tài)系統(tǒng)CH4排放的影響較少。陳冠雄等[71]研究結(jié)果表明尿素施用增加稻田CH4排放量。但Cai等[72]研究結(jié)果表明尿素施用降低了稻田CH4排放。施用銨態(tài)肥料會(huì)在3個(gè)方面對(duì)CH4排放產(chǎn)生影響：氮肥促進(jìn)水稻根系發(fā)育，使根系分泌物增加，為CH4產(chǎn)生提供前體基質(zhì)，從而促進(jìn)CH4產(chǎn)生和排放；施用氮肥后，CH4氧化菌的生長(zhǎng)和活性得到促進(jìn)，CH4氧化加劇，從而減少CH4排放；NH4+與CH4具有相似的分子結(jié)構(gòu)，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)CH4氧化，從而促進(jìn)CH4排放。尿素施用對(duì)稻田CH4排放的影響取決于這3個(gè)方面影響因素的相對(duì)強(qiáng)弱[13]。

免耕能夠有效減少稻田CH4排放。一方面，免耕減少土壤擾動(dòng)，增強(qiáng)土壤通氣性，加強(qiáng)氣體交換，降低土壤還原程度，不利于產(chǎn)CH4菌生長(zhǎng)和保持活性，從而降低CH4的產(chǎn)生與排放[68-69]；另一方面，免耕條件下土壤的原有結(jié)構(gòu)得到很好的保護(hù)，CH4氧化菌的生存環(huán)境得以維持，CH4的氧化加劇，CH4排放大量降低[73]。

采用稻田養(yǎng)鴨、稻田養(yǎng)魚(yú)等復(fù)合種養(yǎng)模式能夠顯著減少稻田CH4排放。只有在嚴(yán)格厭氧條件下，產(chǎn)CH4菌才能保持活性，作用于產(chǎn)CH4基質(zhì)產(chǎn)生CH4。在稻-鴨復(fù)合生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中，由于鴨子的活動(dòng)，擾動(dòng)水體，使稻田土壤中氣體的交換加快，水中氧氣含量增加；鴨子以田間浮游生物為食，減少了水體溶氧的消耗，土壤氧化還原電位升高，產(chǎn)CH4細(xì)菌數(shù)量減少活性減弱，減少了CH4的產(chǎn)生，土壤產(chǎn)生的CH4被較快地氧化，從而降低CH4的排放量[22]。

本研究選取湖南省作為典型的雙季稻區(qū)進(jìn)行研究，能夠獲取的大田試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)較少。耕作措施、復(fù)合種養(yǎng)、稻作制度因產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)較少未能對(duì)單位產(chǎn)量CH4排放量這一指標(biāo)進(jìn)行研究。灌溉方式會(huì)是影響CH4排放的重要因素，但由于在湖南省進(jìn)行的灌溉試驗(yàn)較少，無(wú)法獲取足夠的數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)進(jìn)行研究。

4 結(jié) 論

1）在湖南省雙季稻田中，雙季稻CH4排放占全年CH4排放大于90%，晚稻CH4排放顯著大于早稻。

2）復(fù)合種養(yǎng)、免耕會(huì)影響厭氧環(huán)境的形成，降低CH4排放；冬季種植綠肥會(huì)通過(guò)提供大量產(chǎn)CH4基質(zhì)促進(jìn)CH4排放，對(duì)早稻季CH4排放的促進(jìn)作用明顯大于晚稻季。

3）施氮肥會(huì)顯著增加水稻產(chǎn)量，對(duì)CH4排放無(wú)明顯影響，因此顯著降低單位產(chǎn)量CH4排放；施有機(jī)肥、秸稈還田會(huì)顯著增加稻田CH4排放量，增加單位產(chǎn)量CH4排放。

4）免耕、復(fù)合種養(yǎng)和適量施氮肥可作為湖南省雙季稻田有效的溫室氣體減排措施。

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Influencing factors of CH4emissions from double cropping paddy fields in Hunan Province, China based on Meta-analysis

Li Shuaishuai, Zhang Xiongzhi, Liu Bingyang, Zhao Xin, Zhang Hailin※

(,,,,100193,)

Warming climate has been a global concern. Methane is an important greenhouse gas. Double rice cropping system in Hunan province contributes a large proportion of the national rice production. In this study, we studied the effect of agricultural managements of rice on methane emissions from double cropping paddy fields in Hunan Province, China based on Meta-analysis method. Only studies designed as side-by-side paired field experiments were included in this study. Field management practices, treatments, and controls were described in detail in each study, and the location of the experiment was provided. If seasonal accumulative CH4emission fluxes were not directly provided, these values were calculated by multiplying time and mean CH4emissions by the measurement period. A total of 53 published peer-reviewed papers published before 2018were obtained by reference retrieval. From them, 840 groups of data were drawn. The management measures included crop rotation, symbiosis ecosystem, tillage, nitrogen fertilizer input, organic manure and residue retention. The control and treatment groups were fallow versus winter crops, paddy-rice system versus rice-duck and rice-fish systems, conventional versus no tillage, no fertilizer-N input versus fertilizer-N input, no manure input versus fertilizer-N and manure input, and fertilizer-N input versus residue retention. Natural log of response ratio was used as the effect size in the random effect meta-analysis. Results showed that CH4emissions from both early and late rice accounted for 97.9% of annual CH4emissions, and more CH4emissions from late rice was observed than that for early rice. In the double rice cropping system, adding winter crops could significantly increase CH4emissions from double rice season by 43.88% (< 0.05) compared to winter fallow. Moreover, the increase in methane emissions from early rice was significantly higher than that from late rice. Symbiosis ecosystem of rice (i.e., with ducks or fishes) and adopting no-till significantly decreased CH4emissions by 37.02% and 26.84% (< 0.05), respectively. The decrease in the emission from early rice field was much higher than that from late rice field. As for yield-scaled emission, application of N fertilizer decreased yield-scaled CH4emissions by 40.01% (< 0.05) mainly due to the yields increased by 73.87% (< 0.05). Additionally, organic fertilizer application and residue retention increased 68.11% and 71.80% (< 0.05) of yield-scaled CH4emissions without impacting the rice yield. The results suggested adopting symbiosis ecosystem rice production or no-till along with optimized N input is conducive to balancing rice yield and CH4emissions from fields with double rice cropping system in Hunan province.

methane; tillage; fertilizers; double cropping rice field; Meta-analysis

2018-12-24

2019-05-28

國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（2016YFD0300201）。

李帥帥，主要從事農(nóng)田生態(tài)研究。Email：lishuaishuai3514@cau.edu.cn

張海林，博士，教授，主要從事保護(hù)性農(nóng)業(yè)與農(nóng)田生態(tài)研究。Email：hailin@cau.edu.cn

10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2019.12.015

Q178.51+6；S964.2

A

1002-6819(2019)-12-0124-09

李帥帥，張雄智，劉冰洋，趙 鑫，張海林. Meta分析湖南省雙季稻田甲烷排放影響因素[J]. 農(nóng)業(yè)工程學(xué)報(bào)，2019，35(12)：124－132. doi：10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2019.12.015 http://www.tcsae.org

Li Shuaishuai, Zhang Xiongzhi, Liu Bingyang, Zhao Xin, Zhang Hailin. Influencing factors of CH4emissions from double cropping paddy fields in Hunan Province, China based on Meta-analysis[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2019, 35(12): 124－132. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi：10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2019.12.015 http://www.tcsae.org