No.5.Sep. 15，2019

HIGHLIGHTS

TheChangesofForeignTradeSysteminthe70YearssincetheFoundingofNewChina:RetrospectandProspect

HUANG Hanmin KONG Lingqian LU Yanqiu

·19·

(SchoolofBusinessAdministration,ZhongnanUniversityofEconomicsandLaw,Wuhan430073,China)

Abstract:Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in the past 70 years, The reform of China’s foreign trade system is deeply rooted in the reform of socialist economic system, which is the epitome of China’s economic system reform. Before the reform and opening-up, China established a state control system of foreign trade adapted to the socialist planned economic system, which by centralized decision-making and unified operation of the state, foreign trade enterprises lack autonomy, and foreign trade plays a major role in regulating the remaining deficiencies; after the reform and opening-up, the main line of our country is to decentralize power and concede profits, stimulate the vitality of the private economy, open the market to the outside world and promote the integration of the economy into the world economy, therefore a foreign trade system suited to the market economy has been established and the fundamental reform of the foreign trade system has been realized. The change of foreign trade system has also released tremendous vitality, promoted the rapid development of China’s foreign trade, and becomes an important driving force for economic growth. Reviewing the course of the change of China’s trade system, keeping pace with the times and constantly reforming are the important characteristics of the change of China’s foreign trade system. We should continue to expand its efforts and level of opening to the outside world, accelerate the new system construction of open economy, so as to integrate into the global economic development with a more open attitude.

Keywords:Foreign Trade System; Institutional Change; Trade Dependence; Goods Trade ; Multilateral Trade; Free Trade Experimental Area ;The Belt and Road

TheInnovationActivityMeasurementandPathThinkingofChineseEnterprisesintheProcessofNewIndustrialRevolution￣

LI Jinhua

·31·

(Instituteofquantitative&TechnicalEconomics,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences,Beijing100732,China;
UniversityofChineseAcademyofSocialSciences,Beijing100732,China)

Abstract:In the process of the new industrial revolution and the construction of a powerful manufacturing country, Chinese enterprises are making great efforts to carry out innovative activities. The proportion of innovative enterprises in China is not high, especially those that achieve innovation and four innovative enterprises at the same time account for a lower proportion; more than half of enterprises with innovative activities have formulated innovative strategic objectives; there are differences in the innovative strategic objectives formulated by enterprises of different sizes and types. In terms of total investment in innovation, Chinese manufacturing enterprises have more investment in innovation, the gap of innovation investment between enterprises in different regions is large, and the proportion of technological transformation funds in enterprises investment in technological innovation is large. There are also differences in the number of patent applications and effective invention patents for enterprises of different scales and ownership. In the future, we should stimulate the innovative vitality of state-owned enterprises and promote their innovative activities to extend in depth; promote substantive international collaboration in technology and strive to eliminate technical barriers; improve the efficiency of enterprises innovation and accelerate the industrialization of enterprises patents; promote major innovations in advanced manufacturing industries and support the four types of innovations of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Keywords:Industrial Revolution; Innovative Activities; Innovative Path; German Industry 4.0; Industrial Internet; Made in China 2025

TheCausesandExplanationofMismatchofHumanCapitalfromthePerspectiveofAdministrativeMonopoly

GE Jing1LI Yong2

·43·

(1.InstituteofNewStructuralEconomics,PekingUniversity,Beijing100871,China;
2.SchoolofEconomicandManagement,NorthwestUniversity,Xi’an710127,China)

Abstract:In the critical period when China’s economic development is gradually transforming from investment-driven to innovation-driven, how to effectively allocate innovation resources has become an urgent problem for China’s sustainable economic growth under the new normal. This paper analyzes the causes of human capital mismatch in China from the perspective of administrative monopoly: the administrative monopoly industry has enjoyed long-term hidden subsidies and protection from government subsidies and credit resources, but has not turned this part of “excess profits” into innovative output. However, under the influence of "vague property rights" and "absence of owners", there is a "wage premium" within the administrative monopoly industry, which attracts human capital to enter and forms human capital mismatch. The empirical test based on the data of Chinese industrial enterprises verifies the above judgment. The mismatch degree of human capital in administrative monopoly industries is about 0.7119 higher than that in non-administrative monopoly industries on average. The conclusion of this paper shows that breaking administrative monopoly is of great significance for correcting the mismatch of human capital and improving the total factor productivity of economy.

Keywords:Administrative Monopoly; Innovation Efficiency; Wage Premium; Human Capital Mismatch

Analysts’SupplyChainIndustryExpertiseandEarningsForecasts’Quality

XIE Xuan1WANG Yunchen1，2WU Meng3

·53·

(1.SchoolofManagement,SichuanAgriculturalUniversity,Chengdu611130,China；2.PostdoctoralMobileStationofBusinessAdministration,FudanUniversity,Shanghai200433,China；3.SchoolofBusiness,SichuanNormalUniversity,Chengdu610101,China)

Abstract:Based on a sample of A-share listed firms in China during 2008-2015, this paper investigates the impact of analysts’ supply chain industry expertise on earnings forecasts’ quality. The result shows that analysts with supply chain industry expertise provide earnings forecasts with higher information quality. Furthermore, the positive relationship between analysts’ supply chain industry expertise and forecasts’ quality is stronger when firms have more dependence on their suppliers/customers or when firms face higher information uncertainty. Further analysis shows that, supply chain analysts’ positive impact is derived from the proficiency or experience acquired by supply chain knowledge, and it is more significant in industries in which knowledge spillover effect is more obvious.

Keywords:Analyst；Supply Chain Industry Expertise；Forecast Accuracy；Forecast Optimistic Bias; Earnings Forecasts’ Quality

WillGoodWeatherIncreasetheOptimisticBiasofAnalysts’EarningsForecast?EvidencefromAnalysts’SiteVisits

WANG Chenglong1RAN Mingdong2

·64·

(1.SchoolofManagement,XiamenUniversity,Xiamen361005,China；2.SchoolofAccounting/InstituteofAccountingandBigData,ZhongnanUniversityofEconomicsandLaw,Wuhan430073,China)

Abstract:Based on behavioral finance theory, this paper studies the impact of weather on the optimistic bias of analysts’ earnings forecast. Taking the A-share listed companies in China during 2012-2016 as the sample, and by matching the analysts’ site visiting data and the local weather data, it is found that the better the weather on the visiting day, the greater the optimistic bias of the analysts’ earnings forecast. Especially when the management ability and education level of analysts are lower, and the number of listed firms following by analysts is smaller, the impact of good weather on the optimistic bias is greater. On the one hand, this paper extends the relevant literature on the irrational decision-making of the capital market participants from the perspective of analysts; on the other hand, it breaks through the theoretical framework of classical finance, which provides an irrational explanation for the optimistic bias of analysts’ earnings forecast.

Keywords:Weather; Analyst; Optimistic Bias; Behavioral Finance

BasicEndowmentInsuranceandResident’sPreferenceforRedistribution

LU Yuanping1WANG Junpeng2LI Wenjian1

·105·

(1.SchoolofPublicFinanceandTaxation/ResearchCenterforIncomeDistribution,ZhongnanUniversityofEconomicsandLaw,Wuhan430073,China；2.SchoolofPublicAdministration,ZhongnanUniversityofEconomicsandLaw,Wuhan430073,China)

Abstract:Based on the 2015 data of China’s comprehensive social survey, the paper studies the redistribution effect of basic endowment insurance from the perspective of residents’ preference for redistribution, and finds that the basic endowment insurance actually improves the level of residents’ preference for redistribution, which verifies the adverse adjustment effect of China’s basic endowment insurance system on income distribution from the subjective aspect. The mechanism study finds that the low level of basic pension payment is an important reason for the adverse adjustment effect of China’s basic endowment insurance on income distribution. Heterogeneity analysis shows that among the young group and the group with agricultural household registration, participation in basic endowment insurance has a more significant adverse adjustment effect on residents’ preference for redistribution. The article provides the important references for our country to reform endowment insurance system and promote fair income distribution.

Keywords:Basic Endowment Insurance; Redistribution Preferences; Reverse Regulation; Pension Replacement Rate

Multi-ProductFirms,InputTradeLiberalizationandFirmProductScope

FENG Xiao WANG Yongjin

·134·

(SchoolofEconomics,NankaiUniversity,Tianjin300071,China)

Abstract:Based on combined Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database and Product Output Database during 2000-2007, this paper describes the characteristics of multiple-product firms and product switching behavior from the production level, and examines the impact of input trade liberalization on the firms’ product scope. The study shows that the product structure of Chinese firms is relatively simple, the frequency of product switching is very low, and the resource allocation effect achieved by product switching is negligible; input trade liberalization significantly promotes the expansion of the firms’ production scope, and the conclusion is still valid after adopting a series of robustness tests, such as overcoming endogeneity, replacing the calculation methods of core explanatory variable and adopting difference-in-difference method; heterogeneity tests show that this promotion is mainly concentrated in high-productivity enterprises and areas where new products are introduced at lower cost; from the perspective of impact mechanism, the positive impact of input trade liberalization on product scope mainly comes from the decline of the price of imported intermediate products rather than the increase in the types of imported products.

Keywords:Multiple-Product Firm; Product Switching; Allocation of Resources in the Enterprise; Input Trade Liberalization