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Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China

Abstract Under the resource constraint of low per capita possession of cultivated land and the strategic requirements for ensuring national food security, the intensive and efficient use of cultivated land is an important topic for long-term research in China’s academic circles. It is an important prerequisite for exploring the moderate scale management of agricultural land. The calculation results of 147 county-level units in Northeast China by DEA method show that in the use efficiency evaluation results of cultivated land of county-level units, the mean values of comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency were 0.674, 0.705 and 0.96, respectively, and the DEA effective units account for about 11%. The effective areas of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency do not have a high level of superposition. To a certain extent, this also limits the improvement of overall efficiency. In view of the scale of family farmland management, counties and cities with an average per household possession of cultivated land of 1.71-2.13 ha can achieve both scale and efficiency through efficiency improvement.

Key words Cultivated land use efficiency, Moderate scale management, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Northeast China

1 Introduction

The human-driven mechanism of land use changes is an important part of geography study of human-land relationships. The use of cultivated land and its efficiency are a direct reflection of the degree of interaction between human and land[1-2]. The per capita possession of cultivated land in China is only 1/4 of the global level, and the total area of cultivated land in China has approached the red line of 0.12 billion ha. With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization and the serious situation of non-agriculturalization of cultivated land, efficient and intensive use of cultivated land has become a very urgent practical problem[3-4]. Under the resource constraint of low per capita possession of cultivated land and the strategic requirements for ensuring national food security, the intensive use of cultivated land has always been an important research content in China’s academic circles. From the perspective of land use, analyses of cultivated land change patterns, cultivated land intensification evaluation and regional differences, and relationships between regional changes in cultivated land productivity and food production have made a lot of achievements[5-8]. Specially, it is manifested in the following three aspects. (i) Accounting methods and spatio-temporal change laws of cultivated land use efficiency. According to the panel data, the differences in the comprehensive use efficiency and various decomposition efficiencies of cultivated land and the influencing factors are analyzed at the regional level[9-10]. (ii) The exploration of the relationship between the scale of agricultural land and the input of production factors, especially the responses of farmers of different land management scales to the external environment such as market and policies, and the resulting changes in the use patterns and input behavior of cultivated land. (iii) The diversification of research methods. In the early period, descriptive statistics, principal component analysis and stochastic frontier production function,etc. are mainly used. In recent years, the DEA-Tobit two-stage analysis method[11]has been used to study the impact of farmer differentiation on the use efficiency of cultivated land.

Regional agricultural resource endowment is the basis and premise for conducting moderate scale management. The economic meaning of moderate scale management can be understood as the optimal scale of management, that is, to achieve the best benefits through the optimal combination and effective operation of various production factors. However, the combination of factors with agricultural land as the core is bound to be bound by land supply. Scale management that is free from the constraints of land resources is difficult to achieve. Northeast China has long been the main grain production area in China. Its grain output accounted for 13% of the national share during 1949-1990, 12.6%-14.6% of the national share during 1991-2003, and 19.52% of the national share during 2004-2014. The grain production capacity and stability are at a historically good level. This is consistent with a wide range of perceptions of the regional food production with characteristics of high yield, high commodity grain rate and high potential. Faced with the restriction of land availability in agricultural scale management, exploring the comparative advantages of agricultural production in Northeast China and analyzing the preconditions for the moderate management scale of agricultural land under the guidance of efficiency will be of great significance for predicting whether the region is suitable for promoting scale management overall and will help to develop an overall strategy and deployment for regional agricultural scale management, with an expectation to supplement and expand the relevant study results on the impact of cultivated land use efficiency at the county scale and provide a reference for promoting the moderate scale management of cultivated land in the Northeast.

2 Advantages of Northeast China for promoting agricultural scale management

2.1AnalysisofcomparativeadvantagesofcropsThe comparison with the corresponding data of the same period in the county and the quantitative measure of comparative advantages of scale, efficiency and comprehensive efficiency of dominant crops are used as a reference for judging whether the Northeast China has agricultural scale management. Among them, the comprehensive comparative advantage index method is applied for analysis. The three indexes included in the calculation result are the scale advantage index (SAI), efficiency advantage index (EAI) and comprehensive comparative advantage index (AAI). When SAI/EAI/AAI>1, it indicates that the grain production in the region has significant scale advantage/efficiency advantage/comprehensive advantage in China. On the contrary, it has no advantages.

Based on the calculation results of the comprehensive advantages of three major crops of maize, rice and soybean, the major crops in the Northeast China are generally not efficient, and the index is generally declining. The efficiency comparative advantage index of maize and rice is close to 1.0, and that of soybean has fallen below 1.0. The maize and soybean in Northeast China have scale advantage and comprehensive advantage compared with the whole country, but these advantages show a downward trend. Although rice does not have scale advantage and comprehensive advantage, the index is on the rise. To a certain extent, it indicates that the reason why the comprehensive advantage of grain production in Northeast China is higher than the national average is the pull of production scale. Land and water resources to population ratios have contributed to the preconditions for regional scale production.

Table1ComparativeadvantageindexesofmajorcropsinNortheastChinain2004-2014

YearRiceSAIEAIAAIMaizeSAIEAIAAISoybeanSAIEAIAAI20040.671.140.871.801.121.422.571.081.6620050.691.120.881.771.111.402.581.061.6520100.811.050.921.721.041.342.261.001.5020140.841.000.921.761.011.331.840.941.32

2.2AnalysisofcomparativeadvantagesofregionalfoodproductionThe comparative advantage in 147 counties and cities in the three northeastern provinces is estimated quantitatively by the same mathematical statistics method. No distinction is made between crop varieties, and only regional integrated food production is compared, which is used as a reference indicator for judging the comprehensive advantage of county-level grain production and whether it is suitable for promoting the large-scale operation of cultivated land. The estimation results are as follows. (i) Scale advantage. The scale advantage indexes of grain production in 95.24% of the counties and cities are greater than 1. Among them, the scale advantage indexes of grain production in all the counties and cities of Heilongjiang Province are greater than 1. (ii) Efficiency advantage. The grain production efficiency of 40.12% of the counties and cities does not have significant advantage in China. Most of them are located in Liaoning Province and Heilongjiang Province, and a small proportion is in the east and west of Jilin Province. (iii) Comprehensive advantage. Among the 147 counties and cities, the comprehensive comparative advantage indexes of 35 counties and cities are lower than 1, and the efficiency advantage indexes of 57.6% of the counties and cities are also lower than 1.

The evaluation results of scale, efficiency and comprehensive advantages of grain production at the county scale indicate that the grain production support capacity in Northeast China is significantly affected by the scale advantage. Whether the promotion of scale management can bring higher production efficiency needs to be gradually tested in the course of practice. The land supply in Northeast China has the ability to break through restrictions to a certain extent, so Northeast China can be a priority demonstration area for moderate scale management.

Table2Classificationof147countiesandcitiesinnortheasternthreeprovincesintermsofsizeofcomparativeadvantageindexesofgrainproduction

ProvinceComprehensive advantage>1<1Efficiency advantage>1<1Scale advantage>1<1Liaoning32122519395Jilin3192713382Heilongjiang49143825630Total1123590571407

Note: The data in the table indicate the number of counties and cities; > 1, with comparative advantage; < 1, without comparative advantage.

3 Cultivated land use efficiency at county scale

3.1ResearchmethodsData envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to quantitatively measure the grain production efficiency at the county level in Northeast China. This method can effectively reduce the influence of subjective factors on parameter assignment and data error, and the calculation results can better reflect the actual situation in the case area. DEA is an efficiency evaluation method proposed by American operations researchers Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes based on the concept of relative efficiency in 1978[7-11]. This paper uses an input-oriented DEA model to decompose production efficiency into comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency, which are referred to as TE, PTE and SE, respectively. The quantity relationship is TE=PTE×SE. The efficiency of the DEA method is the relative efficiency of all Decision Making Units (DMU) over a period of time against the optimal unit on the production frontier. Due to the different production frontiers formed by decision making units in different periods, DMU’s efficiency scores cannot be directly compared between different periods. Therefore, it is also referred to as static efficiency.

3.2IndexselectionanddatasourcesThe spatial scale of this paper is base don 147 counties and cities in the northeastern three provinces, and the time section is 2014, focusing on the regional differences in the use efficiency of cultivated land in Northeast China and the characteristics of its decomposition efficiencies. According to the requirements of the DEA model, an evaluation model covering one output index and five input indexes is constructed. The output index is food production, and the input indexes are sown area, agricultural population, total power of agricultural machinery, amount of fertilizer applied and effective irrigated area. The data mainly comes from corresponding year’sJilinStatisticalYearbook,LiaoningStatisticalYearbook,HeilongjiangStatisticalYearbook,ChinaCounty(City)SocialandEconomicStatisticalYearbookandChinaAgriculturalStatisticalYearbook.

Table3DescriptivestatisticsofinputandoutputindexesinNortheastChinain2014atthecountyscale

Output variableGrainproduction∥104 tInput variablesSownarea∥103 ha Agricultural population104 Total power of agriculturalmachinery∥104 kW Amount of fertilizerapplied∥104 tEffective irrigatedarea∥103 haMaximum335.00424.70107.17177.2031.22121.23Minimum0.330.610.302.600.020.16Mean74.94122.6330.2157.764.7030.99

3.3MeasurementresultsThe comprehensive efficiency, technical efficiency and scale efficiency of cultivated land use at the county scale in Northeast China in 2014 were calculated by DEAP2.1 software. The evaluation results of the cultivated land use efficiency of the county units in Northeast China show that the average values of comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency are 0.674, 0.705 and 0.96, respectively. None of the values of the efficiencies except scale efficiency are ideal.

(i) Comprehensive efficiency. Comprehensive efficiency is a comprehensive measurement and evaluation of the multi-faced capabilities of resource allocation capability and resource use efficiency of decision making units. At present, only 6.8% of the counties and cities in Northeast China have effective comprehensive utilization of cultivated land. Their comprehensive efficiency score is equal to 1, and the pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency are synchronized to 1. This part of the region includes Gongzhuling City of Jilin Province and Yilan County, Jidong County, Zhaozhou County, Zhaoyuan County, Lindian County, Fuyuan County, Anda City, Zhaodong City and Wangkui County of Heilongjiang Province.

(ii) Pure technical efficiency. Pure technical efficiency is to examine the impact of management and technology on the production efficiency of decision making units, and it focuses on evaluating the efficiency of the use of resources in the perspective of technical level. In Northeast China, 11.6% of the counties and cities have a purely technically efficient use of cultivated land. Since effective comprehensive efficiency represents that the pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency are synchronously effective. Therefore, in addition to the comprehensive efficiency-effective areas of which the pure technical efficiency value is 1, the pure technical efficiency-effective areas also include Changhai County of Liaoning Province, Yushu City and Changbai County of Jilin Province, and Longjiang County, Youyi County, Fujin City and Mohe Count of Heilongjiang Province.

(iii) Scale efficiency. Scale efficiency is a measure of the impact of the input scale of agricultural production factors on the production efficiency of decision making units, and it focuses on evaluating the use efficiency of the scale of investment from the perspective of scale. In Northeast China, 10.9% of the counties and cities have effective land use efficiency. Similarly, in addition to the areas with effective comprehensive efficiency, the areas with effective scale efficiency also include Changtu County of Liaoning Province, Qianguo County and Fuyu County of Jilin Province, and Wuchang City, Yi’an County and Anqing County of Heilongjiang Province.

4 Comparative analyses of measurement results and management scale merits

4.1ReturnstoscaleFrom the perspective of scale returns, the scale returns of 83.7%, 4.1% and 12.2% of the counties and cities in Northeast China are in the increasing, decreasing and invariant stages, and the scale returns of most of the counties and cities are increasing. After extracting the county-level units with effective pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency, it is found that the scale efficiency or pure technical efficiency of counties and cities with pure technical efficiency or scale efficiency equal to 1 does not show a regular high score. As a result, the overall efficiency is distributed between 0.266 and 0.989, with a median of 0.87. In addition, the scale returns of the units with effective pure technical efficiency and ineffective scale efficiency such as Yushu City, Longjiang County and Fujin County are decreasing. It shows that the input technical efficiency has no need to be reduced from the view of technical efficiency, and the reason why the overall efficiency is not effective is that the matching of scale and input is not enough. To a certain extent, this indicates that are significant differences in the pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of cultivated land use among county-level units in Northeast China, and the pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency within the sale county-level unit are not synchronized. It is important to explore a reference area of which the efficiency is becoming effective.

Therefore, in the process of performing DEA, the units for efficiency improvement are obtained, including Changhai County of Liaoning Province, Gongzhuling City and Changbai County of Jilin Province and Yilan County, Longjiang County, Jidong County, Youyi County, Zhaozhou County, Zhaoyuan County, Lindian County, Fuyuan County, Fujin County, Anda City, Zhaodong City, Wangkui County and Mohe County of Heilongjiang Province, which cover all the counties and cities where DEA is effective. Among them, Changhai County of Liaoning Province, Gongzhuling City of Jilin Province and Zhaodong City of Heilongjiang Province are the units which can provide a wide range of reference, and they are also the county-level units that are frequently used for reference by other areas. It indicates that the input and output adjusted with reference to this can be closer to achieving effective DEA.

Table4OutputvaluesoftheunitsthatcanbereferredtobyefficiencyimprovementinDEAevaluation

ProvinceCountyCETESERSLiaoningChanghai County0.59910.599irsChangtu County0.8500.8511-JilinYushu City0.88710.887drsChangbai County0.48410.484irsQianguo County0.7920.7921-Fuyu City0.7640.7641-HeilongjiangWuchang City0.9530.9531-Longjiang County0.93410.934drsYian County0.9050.9051-Fujin City0.98910.989drsQingan County0.9820.9821-Mohe County0.26610.266irs

Note: CE, TE, SE and RS represent comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency, scale efficiency and scale returns, respectively.

4.2ScalemeritsReferring to the regularity of the per capita cultivated land of the units with reference significance for efficiency improvement, the range of appropriate scale for efficiency is explored. It is not difficult to find that he pure technical efficiency of each county/city in the table below is 1, indicating that the pure technical efficiency is effective. Among them, the scale efficiencies of Youyi County and Fujin County of Heilongjiang Province are 0.843 and 0.989, respectively, suggesting that their scale returns are in the declining stage.

According to the calculation, the median and mean of per capita grain sown area of the 16 counties (cities) with reference system functions (referred to as reference unit) such as Changhai County are 0.486 and 0.619 ha, respectively. However, the median and mean of per capita grain sown area of the 147 counties (cities) in Northeast China are 0.41 and 0.606 ha, respectively. The median and mean of per capita grain sown area of the reference units are 117.57% and 152.37%, respectively of those of the 147 counties (cities) in Northeast China. If Youyi County and Fujin County of which the scale returns are decreasing are removed, the median of the per capita grain sown area is unchanged, but the mean changes to 0.554 ha. Thus, the median and mean of per capita grain sown area of the reference units are 117.57% and 136.5%, respectively of those of the 147 counties (cities) in Northeast China. According to this, the per capita grain sown area being 20%-50% higher than the mean can be considered as moderate management scale from the perspective of efficiency. That is, the counties (cities) in which the per capita possession of cultivated land of 0.487-0.607 ha or per household (3.5 people) possession of cultivated land of 1.707-2.133 ha or the counties (cities) that can achieve this scale relying on population transfer can achieve effective scale and efficiency synchronously through efficiency improvement.

Table5TheunitswitheffectiveefficiencyinDEAevaluationandtheirpercapitagrainsownareaofagriculturalpopulation

County/CityCETESEAverage sownarea∥haChanghai County0.59910.5990.201Gongzhuling City1110.620Changbai County0.48410.4840.128Yilan County1110.790Longjiang County0.93410.9340.655Jidong County1110.515Youyi County0.84310.8430.614Zhaozhou County1110.387Zhaoyuan County1110.457Lindian County1110.715Fuyuan County1115.307Fujin City0.98910.9891.305Anda City1110.454Zhaodong City1110.404Wangkui County1110.434Mohe County0.26610.2660.345

5 Conclusions and prospects

The efficiency of cultivated land use based on DEA calculation indicates that the comprehensive efficiency of cultivated land of county-level units in Northeast China is not high, and low pure technical efficiency is the man reason. The areas where pure technical efficiency is effective and the scale efficiency is effective do not show a high level of superposition. To a certain extent, this also limits the improvement of comprehensive efficiency. Through the comprehensive comparison of cultivated land use efficiency, scale returns and per capita grain sown area, it can be concluded that the county-level units with per household possession of cultivated land of 1.707-2.133 ha can achieve synchronous efficiency of scale and efficiency through efficiency improvement. This can be considered as a requirement for moderate management scale at the efficiency level.

Previous studies have shown that it is more controversial that agricultural scale management has higher production efficiency from the perspective of efficiency, that is, there are significant academic differences on the necessity of China’s agricultural scale management. However, China is a county with a large population, a large agricultural population and scarce arable land resources, improving land productivity is always the first agricultural strategic goal, and it is also an important reference index and constraint in promoting the scale management of agricultural land. The moderate scale management of agricultural land is usually judged with the regional agricultural resource endowment as the basic indicator, and it refers to the scale of the largest scale benefits obtained when various production factors reach a reasonable match. This is difficult to achieve in the practice of rural China. China’s current productivity level and national conditions have determined that it is impossible to reach a theoretically moderate scale management in the expansion process of land scale. However, the contradiction between the small-scale production of Chinese farmers and the big market is the bottleneck restricting agricultural efficiency and rural development. Moderate scale management of agriculture is an attempt and exploration to break the bottleneck from the cultivation of production and management subjects and the constraints of resource conditions, and is also the only way to achieve agricultural modernization. TheDecisionoftheCentralCommitteeoftheCommunistPartyofChinaonAdvancingSomeMajorIssuesinRuralReformandDevelopmentadopted by the Third Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee in 2008 clarifies the legitimacy of the existence of large-scale grain-production households. A new round of exploring the moderate scale management of cultivated land has become an important part of relevant national documents. The terms such as large-scale grain-production household, leading agricultural enterprise, family farm, farmers’ professional cooperative are constantly appearing in the Central No.1 document and various related documents. Exploring the efficiency of cultivated land use from the perspective of farmers and its impact on moderate scale management is another important scale and object for such research[12], and it is also the focus of follow-up research.