廖承鴻

摘 要：中國(guó)企業(yè)對(duì)外直接投資近幾十年來(lái)發(fā)展迅速，特別是在新時(shí)期，境外直接投資已然成為改革開(kāi)放的重要組成部分。一帶一路的建設(shè)、經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化和金融自由化的不斷推進(jìn)，導(dǎo)致境外直接投資迅猛發(fā)展。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)資源全球最佳配置，資本等生產(chǎn)要素跨國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移，為我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、擺脫資源與人口的限制做出了重大的貢獻(xiàn)。但是隨著我國(guó)企業(yè)對(duì)外直接投資的結(jié)構(gòu)及投資規(guī)模呈現(xiàn)出高端化和擴(kuò)大化的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，在新時(shí)期世界宏觀環(huán)境和國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)發(fā)生重大變化的過(guò)程中，也面臨著各種新老問(wèn)題的交織和愈加嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)，較之以往更具復(fù)雜性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性。

本文旨在通過(guò)分析中國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及國(guó)內(nèi)外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論，結(jié)合境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的表現(xiàn)形式，找出境外直接投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成因，再根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范的國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)，給出一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控措施和啟示

關(guān)鍵詞：對(duì)外直接投資、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)形式、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成因、防范機(jī)制

ABSTRACT

Foreign direct investment by Chinese enterprises has developed rapidly in recent decades. Especially in the new era， foreign direct investment has become an important part of reform and opening up. The continuous advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative， economic globalization， and financial liberalization has led to the rapid development of foreign direct investment. In order to realize the optimal allocation of resources globally， the transnational transfer of capital and other production factors，which made a significant contribution to China's economic development and freedom from the constraints of resources and population. However， as the structure and investment scale of Chinese enterprises' outward foreign direct investment show a trend of high-end and expansion， in the process of major changes in the global macro-environment and domestic economic situation in the new era， they also face a variety of new and old issues. Intertwined and increasingly severe challenges are more complex and risky than ever.

This article aims to find out the risk of overseas direct investment by analyzing the current situation of China's foreign direct investment ， domestic and foreign investment risk theories. Combining the major forms of direct overseas investment risk，find some causes.Then based on international experience of risk prevention，give some risk control measures and enlightenment.

Keywords：Outward foreign direct investment、 Risk form、 Risk causes 、Prevention mechanism

一.國(guó)內(nèi)外研究文獻(xiàn)綜述

本節(jié)主要介紹的是國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)對(duì)外直接投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其防范的研究現(xiàn)狀。首先理清國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)直接投資有關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題的研究，包括風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的類型、成因及其影響因素等，然后結(jié)合國(guó)內(nèi)外已有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量化及其防范措施的研究現(xiàn)狀，對(duì)其做些簡(jiǎn)要評(píng)述。

（一）國(guó)外研究文獻(xiàn)綜述

國(guó)外學(xué)者由于所處的國(guó)情不同，對(duì)境外直接投資的動(dòng)因的分析也會(huì)存在差異，他們主要認(rèn)為發(fā)展中國(guó)家進(jìn)行境外直接投資主要是為了獲取廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力和原材料，并降低產(chǎn)品的運(yùn)輸成本。另外，很多學(xué)者也以中國(guó)為例，對(duì)中國(guó)的境外直接投資的動(dòng)因進(jìn)行了分析和研究。Deng（2004）認(rèn)為中國(guó)企業(yè)對(duì)外直接投資主要是為了獲取市場(chǎng)、技術(shù)和資源等。Morck（2008）分析了中國(guó)國(guó)有企業(yè)境外直接投資的動(dòng)因，指出企業(yè)很大程度上受到了政府政治目標(biāo)的影響。

對(duì)企業(yè)境外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量化評(píng)估研究上，國(guó)外學(xué)者也做了大量研究。Robock（1971）首先建立了獨(dú)立與非獨(dú)立的變量來(lái)衡量一國(guó)的對(duì)外直接投資的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。Simon（1982）進(jìn)一步發(fā)展并運(yùn)用了這一模型。隨著對(duì)東道國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的關(guān)注加大，越來(lái)越多的學(xué)者認(rèn)為對(duì)于境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)需要從多維角度去分析。如從東道國(guó)政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)文化三個(gè)角度綜合評(píng)估企業(yè)對(duì)外直接投資的東道國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

（二）國(guó)內(nèi)研究文獻(xiàn)綜述