By Yang Jinyue Translation： Zhang Lei

The Red Envelope Game

By Yang Jinyue Translation： Zhang Lei

This story is about two colleagues. They have worked at the same firm for a year. At the end of the year, the boss decides to reward them each with a tightly sealed red envelope. Both of them are very pleased to find 5000 yuan in their own red packet—but they don’t know how much the other gets.

The boss then tells them, “The two red envelopes contain either 5000 yuan or 8000 yuan, or 5000 yuan both. If you would like to swap your red packet with the other person, I will be your witness.However, I must charge each of you 100 yuan.”

One thinks that if the other red envelope has 5000 yuan as well, he shall only lose 100 yuan, but he shall earn 2900 yuan more should the other red envelope contain 8000 yuan. The chances are 50/50. It seems a good deal.

The other one thinks just the same and the two readily agree to the proposition at the same time,“We will swap!”

The result is they soon find out they are played.Both red envelopes contain 5000 yuan. Then how could the boss have easily played them?

In fact, it is a psychological game played between bosses and employees. In the beginning when the boss brought up the proposition of swapping possibly 5000 yuan to 8000 yuan, both the employees made the right calculations and decided to trade. At that moment, the game changed. If one wished to swap, the other should immediately realize that the person only had 5000—otherwise he wouldn’t agree. And when the first one heard the willingness of trading with the other, he should have realized the same fact. If both had been wise enough, they should have turned the offer down and neither of them would suffer any loss.Nevertheless, they wanted so much the 8000 yuan that the other person might have had and were“calculated” by the boss.

It’s the same in our everyday life. We should analyze sensibly when we are making decisions and try to avoid traps. Most importantly, we shouldn’t let greed grip us and expose opportunities to others. ◆

有這樣一個(gè)小故事。說(shuō)甲、乙兩個(gè)員工在同一公司里干了一年，到年底的時(shí)候，老板為了獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)他們，給他們每人發(fā)了一個(gè)密封好的紅包。甲、乙二人很高興，各自打開(kāi)紅包，看到紅包里裝著5000元錢(qián)，但并不知道對(duì)方的紅包里裝了多少。

這時(shí)老板對(duì)甲、乙二人說(shuō)：“紅包里的錢(qián)，要么各是5000元，要么一個(gè)5000元，一個(gè)8000元。你們?nèi)绻敢飧鷮?duì)方調(diào)換紅包，我可以給你們當(dāng)公證人，不過(guò)，你們每人要給我100元公證費(fèi)。”

甲心想：假如我跟乙交換紅包，若他是5000元，我就相當(dāng)于虧了100元公證費(fèi)；如果他的紅包里是8000元，扣除公證費(fèi)100元，我就會(huì)凈賺2900元，而這兩種可能性各占50%。和乙交換是劃算的。

乙的想法跟甲一樣，也覺(jué)得換紅包是劃算的。于是，甲、乙二人異口同聲地說(shuō)：“我們?cè)敢鈸Q?！?/p>

結(jié)果，二人把紅包換過(guò)來(lái)一看，才知道自己上了當(dāng)。實(shí)際上，兩個(gè)紅包里都只有5000元錢(qián)。那么，為什么老板可以輕而易舉地使兩個(gè)員工上當(dāng)受騙呢？

其實(shí)，這是一次員工和老板互動(dòng)的心理博弈。起初，老板提出他們的紅包里或者是5000元，或者是8000元，問(wèn)他們是否愿意交換，這時(shí)，甲和乙的推理分析是沒(méi)有錯(cuò)誤的，他們都選擇了愿意交換。而此時(shí)，局勢(shì)已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變化，既然甲愿意交換，那么乙就應(yīng)該意識(shí)到，甲的紅包里肯定也是5000元，否則他是不會(huì)愿意交換的，這樣的話，就代表兩個(gè)人的紅包都是5000元，交換對(duì)雙方?jīng)]有任何益處。而甲聽(tīng)到乙說(shuō)愿意交換時(shí)，也應(yīng)該意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn)。如果兩個(gè)人都?jí)蛎髦堑脑?，就?yīng)該選擇拒絕交換，這樣他們就都不會(huì)受到損失。但是，他們過(guò)分渴望得到對(duì)方可能擁有的8000元的紅包，最終被老板“算計(jì)”。

日常生活中，我們?cè)诳创涂紤]事情的時(shí)候，一定要理智分析，提防別人的陷阱。尤其不要吃著碗里的，看著鍋里的，讓人抓住了你貪婪的毛病。◆

紅包思維博弈

文/楊金月 譯/張磊

(From Game in Everyday Life, Harbin Press)

（摘自《生活中的博弈論》哈爾濱出版社）