， ，

(1.山東科技大學(xué) 礦業(yè)與安全工程學(xué)院，山東 青島 266590；2.山東科技大學(xué) 礦山災(zāi)害預(yù)防控制省部共建國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室培育基地，山東 青島 266590)

礦井頂板涌水預(yù)測方法及發(fā)展趨勢

張文泉1，2，李波1，高兵1

(1.山東科技大學(xué) 礦業(yè)與安全工程學(xué)院，山東 青島 266590；2.山東科技大學(xué) 礦山災(zāi)害預(yù)防控制省部共建國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室培育基地，山東 青島 266590)

根據(jù)礦井頂板涌水災(zāi)害的特點(diǎn)，總結(jié)礦井頂板涌水的主要影響因素，綜述了我國近年來礦井頂板涌水預(yù)測方法，根據(jù)各方法特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了分類總結(jié)，并將其分為“解析法”“常規(guī)數(shù)學(xué)法”“非線性數(shù)學(xué)法”“模擬類比法”四大類。結(jié)合當(dāng)前煤炭形勢及礦井生產(chǎn)現(xiàn)狀情況，以“云計(jì)算大數(shù)據(jù)”及非線性數(shù)學(xué)方法為研究基礎(chǔ)對未來礦井頂板涌水災(zāi)害預(yù)測研究進(jìn)行展望。

礦井頂板；涌水；預(yù)測；研究現(xiàn)狀；展望

Abstract: This paper first summed up the main influencing factors of mine roof water inrush according to the disater’s characteristics and then reviewed the research progress of mine roof water inrush prediction methods in recent years in China,which were divided into four categories on the basis of their features, namely, analytical method, conventional mathematical method, nonlinear mathematical method and analogy method. Finally, it predicated the development prospects of mine roof water inrush based on the computer technology of cloud computing, big data and non-linear mathematical method by combined with the current situation of coal and production status of mines.

Keywords: mine roof;water inrush; prediction; research status: prospects

Mine roof water inrush is one of the major disasters that threaten mine safety. With the increase of mining depth and strength, mining under lakes, rivers and other water bodies becomes a common problem in China. Therefore, accurate mine roof water inrush prediction, which ensures the safety of mining and security of life and property, has become the most important issue that we need to tackle[1-2].

Mine roof water inrush is characterized by paroxysm, fast speed, and strength. It often causes huge casualties, property losses and even submerged well accidents[3]. In order to achieve early detection, early prevention, early treatment as well as safety mining, many studies on water inrush disaster occurrence mechanism and water inflow calculation methods have been undertaken by engineers and technicians in China. Based on recent researches and combined with the computer cloud computing， big data and other mathematical methods to predict mine roof water inrush in China, this paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each method.

1 The main influencing factors of mine roof water inrush

The causes of mine roof water inrush mainly include the height of water flowing fractured zone, water pressure, water rich property, and roof aquifer strength[4-5]. The connection between the height of water flowing fractured zone and the aquifer has a direct influence on water inflow, which will increase if the water flowing fractured zone contacts the aquifer. Water pressure, the source of mine water inrush plays an important role in the formation and expansion of the weak zone and its effect on the roof water inrush is mainly manifested in the softening roof cracks and expansion of water conducting channel. The water rich property of overlying strata is the material basis of mine roof water inrush. Roof aquifer strength, an important sign to prevent mine roof water inrush, depends on the thickness of aquifer, rock mechanics properties, the transfer of surface properties and its combination state. In practice, these four factors interact with each other, leading to the occurrence of mine roof water inrush accidents.

2 The main theoretical basis of mine roof water inrush

In the mid eighteenth century, many studies on the deformation of mine roof overlying strata failure were conducted in Belgium, France, Russia, Britain and other early industrial countries and a series of theories were proposed such as vertical theory, normal theory, and arch theory. Since 1980s, with the development of China’s coal industry, a lot of coal covered by water bodies has been mined. In view of China’s coal seam and its geological characteristics, researchers have proposed a series of roof strata movement theories and roof water inrush prediction methods.

2.1 The Upper three zones theory

The Upper three zones theory was proposed by Liu[6], who described the overlying strata movement and failure characteristics after the coal seam was mined. Roof overlying strata will lose support and generate formation and failure after the coal seam wis mined. With coal seam mining, the gob area increases and deformation and failure of overlying strata extend gradually to the surface, leading to the occurrence of curved surface subsidence. According to the damage degree of overlying strata, the roof of coal seam can be roughly divided into caving zone, fractured zone, and bending zone, known as the Upper three zones (as shown in
Fig.1).

Fig.1 Sketch map of Upper three zones

The Upper three zones theory provided essential guidance in roof strata control and roof water disaster prevention in the early days of China’s coal industry when mining seam was mainly in shallow layers. But with the increase of mining depth, especially the occurrence of km deep mine, the original stress field becomes complex and the application of the Upper three zones theory is limited. Therefore, to adapt to the current situation of China’s coal mining, the Upper three zones theory needs to be exriched by collecting a large number of deformation data of roof overlying strata in deep mining.

2.2 Four zones theory of rock movement

The Four zones theory of rock movement is a mechanical structure model proposed by Gao[7]on the basis of the traditional Upper three zones theory in accordance with the characteristics of deformation and failure of overlying strata and mechanical characteristics. The Four zones include the failure zone, separation zone, bending zone and loose alluvium zone (as shown in
Fig.2). This theory believes that the overlying strata structure is divided into zones after coal seam mining. The failure zone is the strata above the gob area would lose the continuity of the structure which can only play a supporting role after mining. The separation zone is the strata located above the failure zone, which maintains its own continuity and features of independent bending deformation. The bending zone is located above the separation zone and the strata maintain the original mechanical structure and the overall bending and sinking. The upper part of the loose alluvium maintains its own original structure and mechanical properties and thus gets the name of loose alluvium zone.

The Four zones theory of rock movement is an enrichment and extension of the Upper three zones theory. The Four zones are found in the actual coal mine, which has a great significance to studies on the rock movement of overlying strata and analyses of the regularity of mine roof water inrush. However, the Four zones theory of rock movement still needs to be further improved in the quantitative study of Four zones theory.

Fig.2 Sketch map of four zones

2.3 Other theories

In addition to the above two widely used theories, Chinese researchers have also proposed the key stratum theory[8], rock slab theory of ground pressure[9], masonry beam balance theory[10], the roof caving theory and other theories, which have greatly enriched the theoretical content prediction of mine roof water inrush.

3 Method for prediction of mine water inrush

With the increase of mining depth, the geological structure is gradually complicated. The deep stress field, seepage field distribution and the regularity of development are not clear and the regularity of deep mine roof water inrush is more uncertain[11]. Therefore, strengthening the forecast of mine roof water inrush and taking timely corresponding measures have become a priority among priorities of mine disaster prevention. With the development of computer technology and nonlinear mathematics, more and more data is excavated. According to the research progress on prediction of mine roof water inrush in recent years, we divide the mine roof water inrush prediction methods into analytical method, mathematical method, nonlinear mathematical method, and analogy method. The four types of mine roof water inrush prediction methods are summarized as follows.

3.1 Analytical method

Virtual large diameter well is the use of Dupuit stable flow equation in mine as the center of the tunnel system area prediction method of water inflow, which was proposed by the French scientist Joby hydraulic according to Darcy’s law. And the same analytical application of stable flow equation calculation method is the set water corridor method[12-13]. And the calculation method can be seen in formula (1)-(2). The two methods have played an important role in mine roof water inrush prediction in shallow mining. But due to the fact that the two methods only consider the water conductivity of the aquifer without considering the groundwater recharge when the mine roof water inflow is calculated, the results may have some error. With the increase of mining depth and the development of science and technology, more and more accurate and advanced theories emerge, which provide a new stage to learn and complements Virtual Large Diameter Well and set water corridor method.

(1)

(2)

WhereQis prediction of water inrush from shaft draining, m3/d;Kis the permeability coefficient of coal mine aquifer from shaft draining, m/d;Mis aquifer thickness from shaft draining, m;His thickness of Phreatic aquifer, m;h0is the height of the water column from the shaft draining, m;Ris influence radius, m;r0is the radius of large diameter well, m.

3.2 Conventional mathematical method

The commonly used mathematical methods are the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and regression analysis method in mine roof water inrush prediction. Their applications in mine roof water inrush prediction are described as follows.

3.2.1 AHP method

(*H/L is the ratio of fracture zone height to the distance between aquifer and mining coal seam)Fig.3 Hierarchy structure model for assessment of roof water inrush grade

The analytic hierarchy process divides the influencing factors into target,criterion, and scheme by comparing the elements of each layer to form a judgment matrix (as shown in Fig.3) and the weight of each factor can be calculated in the end. We can get the relationship between the influencing factors and mine inflow by using the AHP to analyze and predict the mine roof water inrush, and then obtain the weight of each factor. Based on the analysis of influencing factors’ weight and the predicted results, we can take relevant control measures[14-16]. However, the AHP has a strong sense of subjective awareness in the analysis of each layer factors, which may lead to inaccurate prediction. Multiple times analysis can be carried out to minimize the impact of subjective factors.

3.2.2 Regression analysis method

Regression analysis is a method based on a large number of mine roof water inrush data. Through the analysis of relevant data, it can build a prediction model of mine roof water inrush. With a strong representation of the collected data, regression analysis has higher accuracy[17]. But the application of this method might be limited by the collected data. With the development of computer big data technology, more and more data can be collected and we believe that in the near future, the regression analysis would perform better in mine roof water inrush prediction based on big data.

3.3 Nonlinear mathematical method and application

3.3.1 Grey theory

Grey theory is the method to study the case where results are clear but the information is not completely clear. Influenced by human, geological structure and mining conditions, the mine roof water inrush factors are changeable capable of making relatively accurate mine roof water inrush predictions in such cases of imperfect information, Grey theory greatly improves the efficiency of mine roof water inrush prediction. Grey theory promotes the development of mine roof water inrush prediction[18-20]. But the prediction interval of Grey theory is greatly affected by human, which reduces the reliability of persuasion. But combining the Grey theory with Matter-Element analysis method to predict the mine roof water inrush is a better way to enhance persuasion and accuracy.

3.3.2 Neural Network method

Fig.4 Prediction model of mine roof water inflow prediction based on neural network

Neural network is a complex network structure that could simulate the learning, analysis, recognition, and memory functions of the human brain. It can improve the accuracy of the results through the reverse propagation of the error, and the most commonly used is BP (Back Propagation) neural network (as shown in
Fig.4). Neural network can deal with large quantities of data and establish a prediction model based on the results and value of the impact factor. Practice proves that the model is of high accuracy under the similar sample condition[21-23]. However, due to the complexity of geological structure in China, it requires a large number of learning samples to get accurate neural network prediction results. The development of computer technology makes it a reality. The cloud computing can make a lot of mine roof water inrush data shared, and the neural network reliability will be greatly improved when samples are sufficient and representative.

3.3.3 Time series

Time series can arrange the numerical value of the same statistical index through the time sequence. By analyzing the existing historical data, we can predict the result of new data. The time series could form the internal solution mechanism by analyzing the historical data of mine water inrush to predict the result of new data[24-26]. Time series is precise and effective in mine roof water inrush prediction. However, the method is more dependent on the sample, and demands larger data. It could be combined with the computer big data to improve the application scope of the model.

3.3.4 Three maps two predictions method

Three maps two predictions method was put forward by Wu to solve problems of supplied water-source,supplied water-pathway, and supplied water-strength. Three maps refer to the roof aquifer water rich zoning map, roof caving safety zoning map, and roof water inrush condition zoning map. Two predictions refer to the hydrogeological prediction and mine roof water inrush prediction. To be specific, a hydrogeological prediction model of mine roof water inrush is firstly established. The model is then modified by using the strata behavior regularity and water inrush data to achieve higher accuracy. Based on this the mine roof water inrush is finally predicted[27-29]. Three maps two predictions method using the Visual Modflow software has been recognized by researchers all over the world. But in the initial establishment of 3D model, three maps two predictions method has larger subjective operability in the correction process of the model, which reduces the reliability of the results. But this method could be combined with the transient electromagnetic method to detect groundwater aquifer of coal mine.In order to improve the accuracy of the model prediction result, the operation needs to follow the objective facts.

3.3.5 Fuzzy evaluation

Fuzzy evaluation uses the maximum membership criterion to predict the mine roof water inrush based on the characteristics of the factors that cannot be quantified to describe the degree of membership, and the quantitative representation. Fuzzy evaluation can solve some of the problems that cannot be quantitatively described by some factors, so that the complex problem is simplified, and the reliability and accuracy of the prediction results are improved[30-31]. But, it is easy to be influenced by the subjective factors in the evaluation process because of the fuzziness of the fuzzy mathematics, which can reduce the accuracy of the prediction results.

3.3.6 Fuzzy matter-element method

Fuzzy matter-element method is the method of fuzzy mathematics and matter-element theory.The matter-element theory is to describe the thing with the three elements of things, characteristics and quantity, and the matter element is the basic element of the above three elements. By using membership degree of fuzzy mathematics to describe influencing factors and using fuzzy matter-element method to analyze the data, the fuzzy matter-element model of mine roof water inrush is built, which can provide a new method to solve mine roof water inrush prediction problem[15-16].

3.4 Analogy method applicated in mine roof water inrush prediction

Analogy method uses computer technology or similar material test to build engineering sites and simulate the process of coal seam mining, through which the deformation of overlying strata and the development of the roof water flowing fractured zone can be directly displayed by the image. After a lot of mining, the method has been proved to have high accuracy and high reference value in mine roof water inrush prediction.

3.4.1 Numerical simulation software method

The rapid development of computer technology enables some simulation software to be applied to mine roof water inrush prediction, among which FLAC3D, PFC, UDEC, COMSOL, ABAQUS, ANSYS are commonly used. The numerical simulation software can be used to build the actual formation conditions and mining support, and its internal mechanism has a high accuracy in solving practical engineering problems. In mine roof water inrush prediction, numerical simulation software has high predictive accuracy[32-35]. However, in building the three-dimensional modeling and endued parameters, it is easily influenced by subjective factors, leading to the nonconformity of the result to the actual engineering site. So, in the process of simulation experiment, the model needs to be built based on proven data and project reality to ensure the forecast results as accurate as possible.

3.4.2 Similar material experiment method

Similar material experiment is based on the proven formation condition of coal mine. In this method, different rock strata are firstly simulated in accordance with the different proportion of the mixture of lime and water. The process of mining is then simulated by setting up the model of simulation experiment according to certain proportion of thickness and strata sequence. By measuring the height of water flowing fractured zone and the stress between strata, the deformation and stress situation of overlying strata can be got, and the mine roof water inrush can be analyzed based on the collected data[36-38]. The method has high accuracy and reference value, but it is necessary to ensure the reliability of data of the strata and the accuracy of the ratio of similar materials to improve credibility of the test.

3.4.3 Hydrological analogy method

Hydrological analogy refers to the method in which the geological conditions, water rich property, and mining conditions are similar so that the new mine roof water inrush prediction could use the observation data of old mine[39-42]. However, the method is limited by the accumulation degree of the old mine’s hydrological data, and it is only suitable for the mine with similar geological and mining conditions. But the development of computer technology enables people to upload the various conditions of mine data and share globally, which could expand the application of the method to a certain extent.

4 Summary and outlook

Mine roof water inrush prediction theories and prediction methods are continually improved with the development of science and technology, especially the rapid development of computer technology in recent years, which provide an opportunity to improve the prediction accuracy of the mine roof water inrush prediction methods.

1) Big data

Collecting a large amount of information is the characteristics of big data[43-45]. Big data has more powerful decision-making ability and data processing ability through the new processing mode. Now that a large amount of data concerning mine roof water inrush related factors will be collected and analyzed, the predicted results based on sufficient data samples will be more accurate in mine roof water inrush prediction.

2) Cloud computing

Many data could be shared through the internet with the development of computer cloud computing. Computer could gradually explore the regularity of mine roof water inrush when the mine roof water inrush database is large enough[46-47]. So, we could establish a 3D visualization model based on global mine roof water inrush database, which can visually analyze the new mine roof water inrush situation and get reliable and accurate results.

3) Combination of nonlinear methods

A large number of fuzzy, incompatible issues are resolved with the development of nonlinear mathematical methods. Changing the black box problem into grey box problem, rough set theory and Both-branch Fuzzy sets play an important role in solving complex irregular engineering problems. By combining the nonlinear method and other mathematical theory, the mine roof water inrush prediction will become more and more accurate.

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(責(zé)任編輯：傅 游)

ResearchStatusandDevelopmentTrendofMineRoofWaterInrushPrediction

ZHANG Wenquan1,2,LI Bo1,GAO Bing1

(1.College of Mining and Safety Engineering, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, Shandong 266590, China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Mining Disaster Prevention and Control Co-founded by Shandong Province and the Ministry of Science and Technology, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, Shandong 266590, China)

TD12; X43

A

1672-3767(2017)06-0015-09

10.16452/j.cnki.sdkjzk.2017.06.003

2016-12-29

國家安全監(jiān)管總局重點(diǎn)科技項(xiàng)目

張文泉(1965—)，男，山東濰坊人，教授，博士，主要從事礦山災(zāi)害預(yù)測及防治相關(guān)研究. 李 波(1992—)，男，山東泰安人，碩士研究生，從事礦山災(zāi)害預(yù)測及防治相關(guān)研究. E-mail：lbck2015@163.com