By Shi Yongming

Political Stability Vital To Regional Relations

By Shi Yongming

Continuity brings China-ASEAN relations to the forefront of the Asian Century

About the author: Shi Yongming is a research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies.

Donald Trump’s inauguration as United States President was the most influential political event at the beginning of 2017. Differing from politicians who break campaign promises right after taking office, Trump, a so-called political virgin, has taken a string of bold measures to keep his word. The one that has the greatest impact on the Asia-Pacific region is his move to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Since the Obama administration’s efforts in an Asia-Pacific rebalancing have officially come to an end, the political outlook of East Asia is set to change significantly.

The 21st century is meant to be the Asian century. The basis for this judgment is the sustained growth that has propelled East Asia forward since the 1980s and the fact that East Asia accounts for one third of the world’s population, as well as a high percentage of its skilled labor force. It seemed that the main reason for this continued growth was the large amount of capital transfer from the United States to East Asia, as well as the opening of the United States market to the region. In fact, a key factor that ensured capital flow into the region was East Asia’s political stability. There were four elements which contributed to such stability. The first was China’s reform and opening up, the second was the relative stability of China-United States relations and the third was the stability of political relations between China and Japan, China and South Korea and China and ASEAN member states. The final element that contributed to East Asian stability is that most countries in East Asia have maintained stable political systems and effective governance.

In the 1990s, most East Asian economies were export-oriented and a regional economic structure formed in the Pacific Rim. The United States and Japan provided capital and technology, while China and South Korea manufactured products to be sold on the United States market. As a result, Asia-Pacific economic cooperation and the security dialogue with ASEAN at the core were two main topics of regional cooperation during that period. However, for fear of future competitors from East Asia, the United States initiated the North American Free Trade Agreement in the early 1990s, and damaged the interests of East Asian countries later during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. These two factors prompted East Asian countries to build their own version of a free trade area, thus the East Asia Summit and China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) were born at the beginning of the 21st century.

The year 2016 marked the 25th anniversary of China-ASEAN dialogue relations. For the past 25 years, the two sides have made fruitful cooperation achievements in line with the principles of mutual respect, understanding, trust and support. The protocol to upgrade CAFTA was signed in November 2015 and came into force on July 1, 2016. Trade volume between China and ASEAN reached US$452.2 billion in 2016. Now, China has become ASEAN’s largest trading partner, while ASEAN is China’s third largest trading partner, its fourth largest export market and its second largest source of imports. In 2016, some 190,000 Chinese and ASEAN students studied in each other’s countries, and personnel exchange between the two sides exceeded 30 million person-times, a number that was originally expected not to be reached before 2020. At present, there are a total of 2,700 flights flying between China and ASEAN countries each week. Each of the above statistics demonstrates that China-ASEAN cooperation has become one of the most important pillars of regional development in Asia.