By Andreas W.Engelhardt & ZHAO Hong

World fiber production and use

The fiber production in the world textile industry in 2015 fell for the first time since 2008 by 0.7% to 94.9 million tonnes. This includes an increase of 5.8% in the manmade fiber sector to 66.8 million tonnes while natural fibers dropped 13.2% to 28.1 million tonnes， the steepest contraction since 1986.

As a matter of common knowledge natural fibers production is not precisely projectable due to climatic and other natural imponderabilities. Hence， annual cotton production is quite often in no accordance with consumption. It needs to be adjusted while basically manmade fiber stocks are controlled to match demand. As global cotton stocks have been traced by international organizations like ICAC， consumption figures for cotton are included in a world-fiberuse figure. This data delivers a more accurate indication of the volumes for subsequent processing into weaving， knitting and nonwovens.

Referring to this approach， last years use of fibers accounted for 96.7 million tonnes， up 3.1%. This robust growth may surprise despite its third consecutive year of weakening from 5.6% growth in 2012 in the light of slowing world economy. On the other hand， it gives reason to question a manmade fiber production according to market needs.

In the absence of global statistics although desirable it seems impossible to approach this issue via an educated guess due to the variety of applications. However， the small-scale market for acetate tow provides an informative basis as this fiber is highly correlated to one homogeneous product， namely cigarette filters. The fiber output depressed from destocking fell much stronger than joint shipments of the main cigarette manufacturers. This basic thought was to comment the level of growth even if no official sources are visible for insights.

Fiber market dynamics

The world market has been unabatedly shifting toward manmade fibers， currently occupying a 69% share， with polyester fibers growing again faster than the market. Natural fibers， in contrast， declined in the fourth consecutive year. Cotton has decisively accounted for this slump after suffering from the most drastic contraction in forty years.

Processing of Fibers Staple fibers are precursor to spun yarn， increasingly used for nonwovens and unspun end-uses for mainly filling materials. The weakness in natural fibers has caused stagnation in spun yarn volumes in the past two years while filament yarns grew considerably faster than the market in six consecutive years.

Raw Material Industry Massive investments in polyester and nylon raw materials intensify competition and overcapacity at unprecedented size will trigger restructuring measures as already visible in PTA with yet unknown scale of decommissioning. Besides， higher self-sufficiency in PR China will largely replace imports.

Trading activities

Further advancing globalization necessitates to take a look at trading activities that doubled by value since the beginning of the century. Latest data from 26 countries and EU for 2015 reveal a 5.3% decrease in exports at USD622 billion， which represents about 80% of world trade. From the ten largest exporting nations were only Bangladesh and Vietnam successful to lift their export value. Even PR China， the undisputed market leader has suffered from its first decline in six years.

Vietnam， facing booming textile and apparel industry， marked new peaks in almost any category. Manmade fiber output has achieved a record high and Vietnam evolved into the worlds largest cotton importer. Unsurprisingly， textile and garment exports enjoyed the worlds fastest growth rate apart from emerging Myanmar at a much lower size. This boom is being supported by trade agreements for the most part. In case of the TPP agreement， requiring the yarn-forward rule of origin， it implies that the share of local content in finished products needs to be raised to fully tap the potential. As apparel production was so far largely relying on imported raw materials， it needs significant expansion of fiber and fabric capacities in not previously known dimension. In addition， adjustment of its sourcing policy appears necessary as well. This will in return put pressure on foreign， non-TPP industries which were significantly involved in supplying fibers and fabrics the local downstream industry still is short of.

Introduction of the new term “Fabric Making Potential”

The volume of textiles and apparel has continuously grown in recent decades. It went along with even stronger growth of trading activities that doubled by value since the beginning of the century. Hence， globalization necessitates a more intense appraisal along the textile value chain.

That is the reason why a new term will be introduced. “Fabric Making Potential” is key figure to illustrate on national basis the relation between available fiber material and volume for subsequent processing.

Local natural fiber growing and manmade fiber manufacturing volumes are starting point to feed downstream operations. Corresponding trade flows of fibers and yarns will finally determine the size of downstream processing. Export surplus of fiber material， like for instance traditional for cotton grown in the United States， will reduce national processing volume. Vice versa， expanding foreign supplies allow an enlarged processing. For example， raw cotton and manmade staple fibers import quantities into Vietnam have been strongly scaled up in recent years. This has made it possible for Vietnam to lift exports of mainly apparel articles from about USD2 billion in the year 2000 to beyond USD25 billion in the previous year. A more detailed analysis of the structure of the trade flows by country further delivers decisive indicators about future need for action. Here come politics into play， namely the recently signed trade agreement between twelve Pacific Rim countries， known as Trans Pacific Partnership （TPP）. It allows zero-tariff in garment trade within the TPP members as long as the yarn-forward rule is complied with that requires usage of yarns and fibers from TPP members exclusively. It will impact both Vietnams sourcing policy and investments to expand local fiber capacity. A similar effect will result from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership （TTIP）， under negotiation between the European Union and United States. Both trade agreements will comprise almost 1.4 billion consumers by 2020.

The parameter “Fabric Making Potential” further includes inventory changes of cotton provided by ICAC and estimates of appropriate manmade fiber stockpiling or destocking as global statistics are not available. This explains why adding up of the production and trade data do not necessarily give equivalent results.

This key figure overviews straightaway upstream spinning and midstream fabric making stage. It shows whether the size fits with each other. Additionally， it reveals at a glance whether the development at the both stages has been parallel and at the same pace. The new service has been prepared for a number of countries with significant importance. It is part of the ninth chapter including twenty executive country profiles.