Wu Xinbo

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Characteristics and Trends of the ‘New Normal’ in China-US Relations

Wu Xinbo

Wu Xinbo is Professor and Director, Center for American Studies, Fudan University.

I n 2015, the development of China-US relations was generally under the “new normal”which has come into being between the two countries in recent years, with frictions and competition coexisting alongside coordination and cooperation. That being said, 2015 saw a new trend emerge in the United States’ attitude towards China, and the competition and frictions between them in some areas led to different results, while new progress was made in their cooperation and new characteristics appeared in their bilateral interactions.

Frictions and Competition Led to Different Results

Frictions and competition remained a major feature of China-US relations in 2015. The differences between the two countries in a number of areas caused tension and volatility in their relations. The ways these problems were dealt with, as well as the results, had different influences on China-US relations.

Economic problems. Economic frictions between China and the United States are reflected at both bilateral and multilateral levels. At the bilateral level, no substantive progress was made in terms of the controls on US high-tech exports to China and improvement of the investment environment for Chinese enterprises in the United States, both of which have long been China’s concerns. At the same time, the United States continued to complain about the change in China’s business environment, arguing that China’sadjustment of related economic policies and strengthened anti-corruption efforts had put greater pressure on US-funded enterprises in China. No major progress was made in the negotiation of China-US bilateral investment protection agreement, showing that there were still major differences on the opening-up of China’s investment market. At the multilateral level, as an important support for the United States’ strategy of rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific, the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) reached consensus in the negotiations in October. As US President Barack Obama has repeatedly said, the intention of the TPP is to prevent China from making the rules for economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region.1For instance, Justin Sink and Carter Dougherty, “Barack Obama Plays China Card in TPP Sales Pitch,”April 18, 2015, http://www.theage.com.au/world/barack-obama-plays-china-card-in-tpp-sales-pitch-20150418-1mntdv.html; Barack Obama, “Weekly Address: Writing the Rules for a Global Economy,”O(jiān)ctober 10, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/10/10/weekly-address-writing-rulesglobal-economy.Therefore, the TPP, an economic cooperation agreement for the Asia-Pacific that excludes China, is an important tool for the United States to carry out geoeconomic competition with China, this has geopolitical significance. Meanwhile, China continued to promote negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), with a view to establishing cooperation arrangements more suitable for the economic development levels of most East Asian countries. With China’s growing economic strength and greater participation in the making of international economic and trade rules, China-US competition in the setting of economic rules will become even more intense.

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The Obama administration strongly opposed China’s proposal to establish the AIIB, fearing that it may be a shock to the international financial system dominated by the United States. While refusing to join itself, the United States also discouraged its allies from doing so. However, thanks to the huge demand for infrastructure construction in Asia, the international community has placed high hopes on China’s greater role in global economic affairs. As it turned out, 57 countries including many US allies finally became founding members of AIIB. The United States’ interference failed, and the AIIB proposal was an unprecedentedsuccess for China. The international community as well as mainstream public opinion in the United States believed that the Obama administration made a serious mistake on this issue. At the seventh China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue, the two countries discussed the maintenance of a stable global financial system. China expressed its willingness to cooperate, which helped ease the United States’ concerns about the intentions of China. In this context, the Obama administration began to adjust its stance on the AIIB. Instead of opposing it, the United States expressed a more welcoming attitude and admitted the possibility of cooperation with this institution in the future. During President Xi Jinping’s visit to the United States in September, the Obama administration said the United States “welcomes the constant increase of China’s financing support for the development and infrastructure of Asia and beyond. The global financial framework is continuously evolving, so as to respond to changes in scale, scope and diversity. This evolution also includes new institutions that take high standards and good governance as their core principles.”China, on its part, expressed its willingness to provide financial support for the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, African Development Bank and Inter-American Development Bank.2“Outcome List of President Xi Jinping’s State Visit to the United States,”http://news.xinhuanet.com/ english/2015-09/26/c_134661037_2.htm.This meant that China and the United States reached important understanding on cooperation for international financial stability. Since then, the United States has supported the International Monetary Fund (IMF) including the renminbi (RMB) in its basket of currencies, and, after years of delay, the US Congress approved the IMF’s voting rights reform plan made in 2010. Thus, China-US competition on the AIIB issue ended with the failure of the United States to oppose it, which resulted in a timely and wise policy adjustment to support and accept China’s greater role in the global financial system. The United States hoped that this would prevent China from building new financial systems and help promote further constructive cooperation between the two countries on the global financial system.

Cyber security. Cyber security is a new field causing frictions betweenChina and the United States, which is likely to become increasingly intense. After the “Snowden incident”in 2013, the United States tried hard to separate the collection of political and security cyber intelligence from that of economic cyber intelligence. It accused the Chinese government and enterprises of engaging in cyber commercial espionage, and five Chinese military officers were indicted on such charges in May 2014, resulting in the halting of the China-US Cyber Security Working Group dialogues. In 2015, the US Office of Personnel Management claimed that its website was hacked, and lots of personal information had been acquired by the hackers. The Obama administration soon pointed an accusing finger at China and threatened to take retaliatory measures, which led to intensified frictions on cyber security between the two countries. To prevent the issue from affecting Xi’s visit to the United States, China sent Meng Jianzhu, head of the Commission for Political and Legal Affairs of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, to the United States as special envoy of President Xi, accompanied by officials from the ministries of public security, national security, justice and information technology, who held dialogues with US Secretary of State John Kerry, Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, and National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice. During the dialogues, the two sides exchanged views and reached an important consensus on prominent problems in enforcement and security areas such as jointly combating cybercrime. During his visit to the United States, President Xi talked about the issue of cyber security four times, and fully expressed China’s opposition to cybercrimes such as stealing information for commercial purposes and China’s willingness to work with the United States to crack down on cybercrimes. The two sides published four points of consensus on cyber security: neither government would conduct or knowingly support cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property, including trade secrets or other confidential business information; both governments would provide timely responses to requests for information regarding malicious cyber activities; a high-level dialogue mechanism on fighting cybercrimes and related issues would be established; and both governments would jointly make and promote appropriate nationalcodes of conduct in cyberspace for the international community.3“Outcome List of President Xi Jinping’s State Visit to the United States,”http://news.xinhuanet.com/ english/2015-09/26/c_134661037_2.htm.The above consensus will greatly mitigate frictions between the two countries on this issue, and was regarded by the United States as an important fruit of President Xi’s visit. In early December, the first China-US High-level Joint Dialogue on Cybercrime and Related Issues was held in Washington. The two sides agreed upon the Guidelines for Combating Cybercrime and Related Issues, and further agreed to take such measures as to conduct desktop maneuvers, set up hotlines and establish expert dialogues to jointly promote cooperation in this field. This dialogue and its specific outcomes showed that China and the United States had entered a new phase of cooperation on cyber security. After years of conflicts and frictions, the two countries are finally working together to solve their common challenges in the field of cyber security in a constructive way, and turn their differences into highlights of cooperation.

South China Sea. With China’s progress in the construction of islands and reefs in the South China Sea, the United States adjusted the manner and intensity of its interventions in the South China Sea. In the spring of 2015, China’s construction of islands and reefs in the South China Sea began to take shape. The speed and scale of China’s construction surprised the United States, which believed that its diplomatic intervention in the issue in recent years had largely failed, and much stronger measures needed to be taken if it was to stop China from further expansion in the South China Sea. In May 2015, US reconnaissance aircraft flew over the islands and reefs under construction, receiving repeated warnings from the Chinese Navy. The US military intended to take more aggressive actions to put pressure on the Chinese side, but the White House considered such factors as President Xi’s visit to the United States, the Iran nuclear talks, and UN conference on climate change, and thus imposed certain constraints on its military. In September, during Xi’s visit, Obama called on China to stop construction work on islands and reefs in the South China Sea and accused China of “militarizing”the South China Sea through such work. President Xi stressed that China will continue to promotethe construction of islands and reefs, but it has no intention of militarizing the waters. When face-to-face pressure failed, President Obama changed approach and allowed the US military to upgrade its actions in the South China Sea. At the end of October, the USS Lassen sailed within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef in the South China Sea in what the United States described as a “freedom of navigation”operation. China strongly opposed the action. In his video talks with the US Chief of Naval Operations, Chinese Navy Commander Wu Shengli criticized what the United States had done, saying it threatened China’s sovereignty and security, undermined regional peace and stability, and was highly dangerous and aggressive. He further warned that if the United States continued such dangerous provocative actions, tensions would rise between the two countries’ naval and air forces, leading to a “possible clash.”4“Navy chief ‘deeply concerned’ over U.S. patrol ship in S. China Sea,”O(jiān)ct 30, 2015, http://news. xinhuanet.com/english/2015-10/30/c_134767469.htm.In his meeting with Harry B. Harris Jr., commander of US Pacific Command, Fan Changlong, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission of China, warned that the United States’ actions of sending warships to the near-shore waters of islands and reefs in China’s Nansha Islands threatened China’s territorial sovereignty and the security of the related islands and reefs, which could easily lead to misunderstandings, miscalculations and accidents.5“China urges US against further provocation in S. China Sea,”http://www.cctv-america.com/2015/11/03/ china-urges-us-against-further-provocation-in-s-china-sea.In response to the United States’ provocations, China increased its military vigilance in the South China Sea. However, the United States had not finished. In November, the United States twice sent B-52 bombers to fly near China’s islands and reefs in the South China Sea, one of which even flew within 2 nautical miles of Huayang Reef (the United States later claimed this to be a “mistake”). The United States also said that it would regularly carry out “freedom of navigation”operations in the South China Sea. In response, the Chinese Navy held large-scale military exercises in the South China Sea in November and December, so as to enhance its ability to respond to military challenges in the South China Sea, and to warnthe United States to act in a prudent way. In early 2016, China carried out test flights for the newly built airstrip in the Yongshu Reef of Nansha Islands. The United States stepped up its pressure by sending the USS Curtis Wilbur to sail into waters 12 nautical miles off Zhongjian Island of the Xisha Islands, expanding its intervention from the Nansha waters to the Xisha waters. This is now the pattern of interaction between China and the United States in the South China Sea: China continues to promote the construction of islands and reefs in the South China Sea; the United States sails close to the islands and reefs in Nansha or Xisha Islands on a regular basis, including within China’s 12-nautical-mile territorial waters, and mobilizes its regional allies to do the same, so as to increase pressure on China. In response China further increases its military presence in the South China Sea. Thus China-US competition in the South China Sea is showing an escalating trend.

The above trends indicate that the competition and frictions between China and the United States have had different results. Frictions and competition in the economic sphere will be chronic, but less likely to be intensified; competition on the AIIB issue may promote their cooperation on safeguarding and reforming the global financial system; and frictions on cyber security are under effective control and management. However, competition in the South China Sea may escalate further. The different outcomes are closely linked with the essence of each issue, and both countries’ interests, comparative strength and both governments’ policies on these issues.

Under the “new normal”of China-US relations, there will be more competition and frictions. Due to its growing power and promotion of major-country diplomacy, China is taking more active steps to safeguard and expand its national interests. Meanwhile, in order to maintain its traditional advantageous position, the United States has become more sensitive and vigilant to the “challenges”posed by China. In the fields of geopolitics, geoeconomics and international mechanisms, the two countries have witnessed increased competition and frictions. The competition and frictions, including several escalated accidents, are normal in the process ofthe changing relative strength and the transfer of power between the United States and China. However, coordination and frictions only constitute one aspect of China-US relations; coordination and cooperation define another aspect of the bilateral relations, which may be even more important. After all, competition and frictions do not equal conflicts and confrontation. Therefore, the competition and frictions should not result in an excessively negative or pessimistic attitude toward the overall state of bilateral relations. Rather, China and the United States should be used to such competition.

What China-US relations need is a comprehensive strategic cooperation framework. Against the backdrop that competition and frictions have already become structural characteristics of their bilateral relations, proper treatment of these issues is just as important as promoting cooperation, and is possibly even more important. This requires both sides to improve their ability to settle their disputes and strengthen risk prevention, management and control. Both leaders should pay more attention to the strategic level. And at the tactical level, the relevant departments should constantly enrich their capabilities and seek new ways to handle risks and prevent misunderstandings.

Under the new normal of China-US relations, there will be more competition and frictions.

Achievements Made in Maintaining Stability and Fostering Cooperation

Under the “new normal”of their relations, there are two major challenges to properly handle China-US relations: First, the two countries should stabilize bilateral relations despite the volatile situation, grasp the generally positive direction of bilateral relations, and guard against significant shocks or downward trends; second, it is important to constantly expand and deepen mutually beneficial cooperation, make cooperation the mainstream of bilateral relations, and provide positive energy for the further development ofbilateral relations.

President Xi Jinping’s state visit to the United States played a key role in the development of bilateral relations in 2015. Before Xi’s visit, the United States opposed the AIIB, and the bilateral relations were highly tense due to the frictions on the South China Sea and cyber security issues. In the United States, there were even voices calling for a change in policy toward China.6Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis, “Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China,”Council Special Report, No. 72, Council on Foreign Relations, March 2015, http://www.cfr.org/china/revising-usgrand-strategy-toward-china/p36371.In this context, Xi’s visit turned the mistaken development momentum of China-US relations around, improved the atmosphere of bilateral relations, and promoted cooperation.

First, the conversation in the White House between President Obama and President Xi continued the informal style of their previous summits. Through their in-depth and candid dialogue, the two sides explained their own strategic intentions as well as their policies and stances on major issues. In his talk with President Obama, President Xi mainly delivered the message that both sides should stick to the right direction of building a new type of major country relationship, and make peace, respect and cooperation the foundations for their relations. He said both sides should adhere to improving strategic mutual trust, respect each other’s interests and concerns, and handle their differences and disagreements with broad minds. He stressed that both countries should uphold the cooperation principles of mutual benefits and win-win results. Xi particularly emphasized that both sides should properly deal with their disagreements, which could not be allowed to cause frictions in bilateral relations, and that winwin cooperation is the only right option for China-US relations. The constructive strategic dialogue between the two presidents helped reduce mistrust and prevent miscalculations. It also stabilized US policy toward China amidst the negative domestic atmosphere that had developed in the United States. Second, in a speech given in Seattle, President Xi stressed that opening-up was China’s fundamental national policy, China’s policy ofusing foreign capital would not be changed, its guarantee for the legitimate rights and interests of foreign-funded enterprises would not be changed, and the direction of better services for the investment and entrepreneurship of foreign enterprises would not be changed.7“Chinese President Xi Jinping Delivers Speech on China-U.S. Relations,”http://news.xinhuanet.com/ english/2015-09/23/c_134651961.htm.This positive signal to US businesses helped boost their confidence in business activities in China. And President Xi’s activities such as China-US entrepreneurs meeting, and visit to Microsoft headquarters and Boeing better reflected the importance the Chinese government attaches to developing China-US economic and trade relations. Given the positive role played by the US business circle in developing China-US relations, gaining the support of the US business circle will not only help develop economic and trade relations, but also maintain the stability of overall China-US relations. Third, this visit promoted concrete progress in bilateral cooperation. For example, the United States expressed its willingness to work with China on anti-corruption and fugitive repatriation, and the two countries completed new annexes on airto-air safety and crisis communication, and further strengthened their cooperation to address climate change and promote clean energy. They agreed to carry out development cooperation in third countries, and the United States reiterated its support for the inclusion of the RMB in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies provided the Chinese currency met the IMF’s existing SDR review criteria, and so on. Generally, most of the achievements secured during Xi’s visit were part of the existing cooperation process, but his visit promoted the process, expanded the scope of cooperation, and highlighted the positive aspects of bilateral relations, which will help hedge against negative influences, and reduce the previously confrontational atmosphere plaguing bilateral relations.

To take a more in-depth view, the fruitful cooperation conducted in 2015 between China and the United States was highly significant in terms of its content and outcomes.

Anti-corruption. With the deepening of China’s fight against cor-ruption, the recovery of assets overseas and fugitive repatriation have become priority tasks for China. As one of the three major destinations of corrupt Chinese officials, the United States is the main target of China’s efforts to recover overseas assets and fugitive repatriation. Effective work has been done through the main channel of the China-US Joint Liaison Group on Law Enforcement Cooperation, and the anti-corruption working group. By the end of 2015, positive progress had been made in key cases concerning the recovery of illegal assets held overseas and fugitive repatriation, with a number of major corrupt and fugitive criminals repatriated from the United States. Anti-corruption has been a priority of the Chinese leadership since the 18th CPC National Congress; it is also an important characteristic and highlight of the political “new normal”of China. The United States’ support for and cooperation on this issue are of positive significance for the political development of China. For a long time, the United States has been making irresponsible remarks about China’s political system and human rights policy, which is often projected as a negative factor in China’s political spectrum. The cooperation of the United States in the fight against corruption is conducive to promoting positive interaction between the two countries in the political arena.

The Afghanistan issue. A peaceful, stable and secular Afghanistan is in line with the interests of both China and the United States. With American combat troops withdrawing from Afghanistan, China and the United States have strengthened cooperation in promoting the country’s political reconciliation. In July 2015, the Afghanistan government and the Taliban held their first formal talks in Pakistan, with the participation of representatives from China and the United States. Although the death of the Taliban leader Mullah Omar postponed the planned second round of talks, the two countries have continued to actively promote the process of reconciliation in Afghanistan. In December 2015, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and US Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken met in Pakistan to discuss the situation in Afghanistan. In January 2016, four-party talks attended by high-rankingofficials of Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and the United States were held in Islamabad, which draw up a road map for the possible restarting of peace talks. Despite the twists and turns of the path towards political reconciliation in Afghanistan, China and the United States will continue their cooperation out of consideration for their own interests. While making the positive aspects of China-US relations prominent, the cooperation has also demonstrated the significant influence of the two countries in Asia-Pacific affairs.

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a leaders’ meeting on the Iranian nuclear issue under a sexpartite framework, in Washington D.C., the United States, April 1, 2016.

Iranian nuclear issue. On July 14, 2015, after 20 months of intense negotiations, the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and Germany reached a comprehensive agreement with Iran. In this process, China played an important role, as a country that had maintained good relations with Iran. After the Iranian nuclear agreement was reached, President Obama called President Xi, affirming the important role of China. He said the United States thanked China for its contribution to this historic agreement and it hoped to keep working with China in a coordinated manner, so asto ensure the implementation of the comprehensive agreement. President Xi stressed that the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue effectively maintained the international nuclear non-proliferation system, provided useful experience for the international community on settling major disputes through negotiations, and sent a positive signal to the world. China and the United States closely communicated and coordinated during the negotiation process. Effective cooperation between the two countries will continue to be carried out in the comprehensive implementation of the agreement. This has demonstrated the two countries’ efforts to build a new type of major country relationship and the capability and effectiveness of jointly tackling global challenges.

Agreement reached during the Paris Conference on Climate Change. On December 13, 2015, negotiators from 196 countries adopted the historic “Paris Climate Agreement,”which marked significant progress in the international community’s efforts to tackle climate change. It is also a successful example of positive cooperation on global governance between China and the United States. In November 2014, during President Obama’s visit to China, the two countries issued a joint statement on climate change, which clarified each country’s emissions reduction targets, and their resolve to jointly promote an agreement at the international climate change negotiations in Paris. This move served as an important example for other countries to announce their emissions reduction plans, and brightened the prospects of the UN climate change negotiations. In 2015, China and the United States continued their positive cooperation and led by example. In June, China took the lead in submitting to the UN its “Enhanced Actions on Climate Change: China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions,”which included the following commitments: to achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030, and make best efforts to peak earlier; to lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by between 60 to 65 percent of the 2005 level; to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and to increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters on the 2005 level. In August, President Obama unveiledthe United States’ “Clean Power Plan”to limit the carbon emissions of US power plants, which has been called the biggest, most important step the United States has ever taken. In September, during President Xi’s visit to the United States, the two countries again issued a joint statement on climate change. Both countries promised to work together with other countries to ensure the success of the Paris Conference on Climate Change, and reiterated that they would implement each country’s own domestic policies on climate change, strengthen bilateral coordination and cooperation, promote sustainable development, and transform to a green, low-carbon and climate-resilient economies.8“China-U.S. Joint Presidential Statement on Climate Change Washington, D.C., September 25, 2015,”http://qhs.ndrc.gov.cn/gzdt/201509/t20150929_753171.html.The close cooperation between China and the United States laid a solid foundation for the Paris conference. At the end of November, President Xi Jinping and President Obama attended the opening ceremony of the Paris Conference on Climate Change and delivered speeches in which they both called on the international community to reach a comprehensive, balanced, strong, and binding agreement on climate change, put forward fair, reasonable and effective global solutions to climate change, and explore humankind’s sustainable development path and governance model. During the conference, China and the United States worked closely and communicated and coordinated well with other countries, and eventually witnessed the birth of the Paris Climate Agreement. Tackling climate change is one of the most important issues of global governance in the 21st century, the successful cooperation between China and the United States on this issue has demonstrated each country’s capability to advance domestic reforms and their strong leaderships.

Stability and cooperation in China-US relations under the “new normal”require strong leaderships in the two countries to give positive guidance to the development direction of bilateral relations, enhance communication and ensure good coordination. Only through proper guidance can the bilateral relations develop in the direction of a new type of major country relationship, while effective strategic communication is ofparamount importance to enhancing strategic mutual trust and reducing strategic doubt and miscalculations. And without the effective coordination of the top leaders, the two countries policies toward each other would be less clear and organized, and the making and implementation of policies would be full of conflicts and confusion.

The expanded cooperation scope under the “new normal”has made China-US relations even more important. In the 1990s, China’s booming economy forged an economic bond with the United States for mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation. During this period, the importance of China-US relations was mainly at the bilateral level. At the beginning of the 21st century, the expansion of China’s global influence and its more active diplomacy promoted the internationalization of China-US relations, which gained more and more global influence. Entering the second decade of the 21st century, the growth of China’s comprehensive national strength and more proactive and constructive diplomacy have enabled it to play a more active and important role in global governance. In recent years, China-US relations have been raised to the level of setting international rules and reforming and maintaining international systems.

The development direction of China-US relations under the “new normal”is to build a new type of major country relationship. While the Obama administration has tried hard to avoid the phrase “new type of major country relationship,”the development of China-US relations in recent years has shown that both countries are making efforts in this direction. The essence of the new type of major country relationship is “non-conflict, nonconfrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation.”Their constantly strengthened communication at the strategic level and the establishment of their military-to-military mutual trust mechanism at the tactical level are moves to avoid conflicts and confrontation. Although the United States is yet to fully respect China’s core interests and major concerns, it has to show more respect for China’s interests given China’s growing strength and firm will to safeguard its national interests. The widening and deepening of China-US cooperation continue to yield win-win and multi-win results.Despite all the time and hard work it takes to build a new type of major country relationship, every little bit of effort by either side is invaluable, because “when the soil accumulates and becomes a mountain, there will be wind and rain and new life.”

China will play an ever more important role in the development of China-US relations in the “new normal.”In such issues as direction planning and agenda setting of the development of bilateral relations, strategic communication, disagreement and friction management and control, and cooperation expansion, China is showing greater initiative and capability to shape bilateral relations. This is not only because of the rising comprehensive national strength of China, but also, and more importantly, the confidence and governing style of its leaders. As an emerging major country, China is less bound by old ways of thinking and policy actions than the United States, so it can better introduce new ideas and initiatives in the practice of China-US relations. China’s stronger leadership in China-US interaction will help promote the construction of a new type of major country relationship.

In recent years, China-US relations have been raised to the level of setting international rules and reforming and maintaining international systems.

China-US Relations Show Structural Adjustment

In 2015, a new trend emerged in the United States’ attitude toward China. With China’s in-depth practice of major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics and further adjustment of its domestic governance approach, the United States became more and more uncomfortable with the “new normal”of China’s foreign policy. As a result, the United States’ doubts and dissatisfaction gradually grew, and the US Congress, US military, and some US experts and scholars advocated a more hawkish policy toward China. Some argued that the “engagement”policy long followed by the United States had failed, so the strategy toward China should be adjustedto create a strong balance to its rise, even containment. Others argued that with China’s growing power and strategic ambition, the United States should adjust itself to the new reality of the changing power structure, respect the reasonable interest demands of China, and reach a strategic understanding with China in Western Pacific. While some argued that the current US policy toward China should continue the engagement policies of various previous administrations since Nixon, but the United States should make some tactical adjustments according to the changing situation.9The representative persons and their ideas in the debates on US policy toward China, see Harry Harding, “Has U.S. China Policy Failed?”The Washington Qиarterlу, Fall 2015, pp. 95-122.The domestic debate about the United States’ policy toward China reflected the United States’ anxiety about China and China-US relations, as well as the confusion of the political elite in the United States on what policy to adopt toward China.

However, the Obama administration had no intention of adjusting its China policy despite the growing negative domestic attitude toward China and increasing number of voices calling for a more assertive policy toward China. In September 2015, before President Xi’s visit to the United States, Susan Rice pointed out the following in a speech on China-US relations: “To build a productive, cooperative relationship with China is a central pillar of our strategy in Asia, which has enabled great progress in China-US cooperation; despite many disagreements between China and the United States, our capacity to manage our differences is greater than that. The Obama administration will continue taking steps to build a productive, cooperative relationship with China that delivers benefits for both our peoples. In the coming decades, strong and wise American leaders must, necessarily, maintain a relationship with China that promotes cooperation, while allowing for healthy competition.”10The White House, “National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice’s As Prepared Remarks on the U.S.-China Relationship at George Washington University,”September 21, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/thepress-office/2015/09/21/national-security-advisor-susan-e-rices-prepared-remarks-us-china.And when President Xi was about to finish his visit, President Obama stressed that “I’m committed to expanding our cooperation, even as we address disagreements candidly andconstructively.”11“Remarks by President Obama and President Xi of the People’s Republic of China in Joint Press Conference,”September 25, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/09/06/remarkspresident-obama-and-president-xi-peoples-republic-china-bilatera.

In the last year of its term, the Obama administration is not very likely to dramatically revise its policy toward China. The probability is that it will maintain its combination of engagement and containment. It should be noted that risks in US policy toward China may increase despite the limited expected progress of bilateral cooperation in 2016 (for example, the negotiations on a China-US bilateral investment protection agreement are not likely to finish). To be specific: First, the US presidential election may influence policy toward China, as the candidates usually point fingers at other countries, especially China. Their tough words against China may influence Obama’s China policy. Second, the US military acts in its own way in Western Pacific and has threatened the stability of China-US relations. The United States military is an active promoter of containment. Most of the top officers in the military and Defense Department are hawks on China, believing that the United States should put more pressure on China on the South China Sea issue. They are actively involving the US military deeper in the issue. This may lead to the escalation of conflicts and even accidents and confrontation between the two countries in the South China Sea.

In 2017, after a new US administration takes office, it must consider these three factors as it develops its policy toward China: the strength status and international environment of the United States; China’s threat to the United States’ national interests; the importance of China-US cooperation for the United States. From the perspective of the strength status and international environment of the United States, despite the sound recovery of the US economy, no strong growth or optimistic prospects can be seen. The advantages of the United States in terms of national strength are no longer as prominent as during the last years of the Clinton administration and the early years of the George W. Bush administration. Both the rise of China and the strategic rejuvenation of Russia have weakened the United States’influence on global affairs. The United States is faced with complicated diplomatic and security challenges in Europe, the Middle East and East Asia at the same time. Overall, the weakening of the United States’ strength advantages and dominant status will be a long-term trend. At the same time, the United States will find itself dealing with more and more challenges in global affairs. As for China’s threat to the United States’ national interests, although the development of China may bring more competition and conflicts with the United States in such areas as the economy, politics, security, geopolitics and international affairs, China does not pose any major threat to the core interests of the United States as the former Soviet Union did. What China will influence is the hegemonic interests of the United States, which are increasingly outdated. Against the backdrop that the strength advantages of the United States will continue to decline, the country should adjust its interest goals and adapt itself to a multipolar rather than unipolar world. Last but not least, regarding the importance for the United States of cooperation with China, with the further development of the Chinese economy and greater role of China in the world, the United States will have to rely more on the cooperation with China to achieve its national interest goals. As President Obama reiterated, China-US cooperation “makes our nations and the world more prosperous and more secure.”12“Remarks by President Obama and President Xi of the People’s Republic of China at Arrival Ceremony,”September 25, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/remarkspresident-obama-and-president-xi-peoples-republic-china-arrival.For any US leaders, it will be a tough option to promote a confrontational China policy at the cost of China-US cooperation, which will not be sustainable even if it is adopted.

In fact, the US policy toward China is not a matter of what it wants to do, but of what it can do and what can be done. Given the United States’ strength, status, international environment, and the China-US structure of strength and interests today, the next US President, whether Republican or Democrat, can hardly make any major adjustment to the United States’ current policy toward China. Basically, its China policy will remain a combination of “engagement and cooperation”and “containmentand balance,”seeking cooperation with China on economic and global issues, and checking China when it comes to security. Of course, in some specific areas, such as trade, security, geopolitics, human rights and values, the United States may selectively increase its pressure on and competition with China. Although this will lead to tension and confrontation in some areas of bilateral relations, no disruptive changes will take place in the overall situation of China-US relations.

Concerning the trend of China-US relations, what is equally important and even more important is that China’s role should be fully taken into consideration. The further enhanced comprehensive national strength of China and the promotion of its more active and constructive major-country diplomacy will add to China’s weight in deciding the future of China-US relations. In the present and for the foreseeable future, the balance of power between China and the United States and the interaction between them are changing and will continue to change in favor of China. As China takes greater initiative in bilateral relations, its capability to shape China-US relations is being steadily enhanced. From a strategic point of view, China is pushing structural optimization of China-US relations, including narrowing the strength gap, balancing interest interdependence, broadening the space for cooperation, enhancing its ability to manage disagreements and frictions, and making the development direction of relations more healthy and positive. In tactical terms, China has accumulated rich experience in dealing with the United States over a long period of time. This has given it the experience to stabilize and lead bilateral relations, which will help ensure the stability and dynamic development of China-US relations. In this process, the United States will gradually adjust itself to the new role of China and the new structure of China-US relations.

Concerning the trend of China-US relations, what is equally important and even more important is that China’s role should be fully taken into consideration.