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        創(chuàng)客時代:新的工業(yè)革命

        2015-04-29 00:00:00byChrisAnderson
        瘋狂英語·閱讀版 2015年2期

        創(chuàng)客(Maker,又譯為“自造者”),指一群酷愛科技、熱衷實踐的人,他們不以贏利為目標、樂于分享技術(shù)、交流思想,把創(chuàng)意轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實。

        當下,創(chuàng)客運動風靡全球。去年6月17日美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬在白宮舉辦了創(chuàng)客嘉年華活動并確定每年的6月18日為美國“制造日”。而美國著名科技雜志《連線》雜志的主編、暢銷書《長尾理論》的作者Chris Anderson在其新書《Makers: the New Industrial Revolution》直指創(chuàng)客將成為新的工業(yè)革命。到底“創(chuàng)客”有多大的能耐?我們直接節(jié)選了Chris Anderson的書,各位先睹為快。

        Back in the early 1940s my grandfather had a great idea. Noting the obsession Californians have with perfectly green front lawns, he decided that what they needed was an automatic 1)sprinkler system. He lavished time and love on it, inventing this and fine-tuning that, and eventually came up with what was essentially an electric clock that could be timed to turn water valves on or off at given times of the day and night. Patent number 2311108 was duly filed in 1943, at which point my grandfather started knocking on manufacturers’ doors. It was a long, 2)arduous process. Finally, in 1950, after endless discussions, the Moody Rainmaster hit the stores. It earned my grandfather a modest income.

        Recently, I decided to follow in his footsteps, while adding a little 21st-century know-how to the mix. Online, I found a few like-minded souls interested in producing an improved water sprinkler. We used 3)opensource software to help us create a sprinkler system not only capable of being operated remotely via an app by worried gardeners on holiday, but also sophisticated enough to factor in the latest local weather forecasts before deciding whether to switch the system on or off. We then sent our designs to an assembly house, who duly came up with a smart-looking finished product. It has proved quite popular. It took my grandfather a decade and a small fortune to perfect his device and market it. It took us a few months and $5,000.

        And that 4)in a nutshell is the Maker movement—harnessing the Internet and the latest manufacturing technologies to make things. The past 10 years have been about discovering new ways to work together and offer services on the web. The next 10 years will, I believe, be about applying those lessons to the real world. It means that the future doesn’t just belong to Internet businesses founded on virtual principles, but to ones that are firmly rooted in the physical world.

        It’s almost a cliché that anyone with a sufficiently good software idea can create a fabulously successful company on the web. That’s because there are practically no barriers preventing entry to entrepreneurship online: if you’ve got a laptop and a credit card, you’re in business. Manufacturing has traditionally been regarded as something else entirely. But over the past few years, something remarkable has begun to happen. The process of making physical stuff has started to look more like the process of making digital stuff.

        Various innovations are helping to make this possible. The first, of course, is the 5)crowdsourcing power of the Internet—if you don’t know all the answers, there is someone out there who will. Put out a call for help on a blog or online forum, and somewhere there will be an expert prepared to help you. The second innovation is the increasing sophistication of design programs that can take raw ideas and transform them into executable files. Just as word-processing software has become ever simpler and more intuitive for the user, so Cad (computer-aided design) programs are becoming simultaneously more sophisticated and easier to handle. You design something; the Cad program works out how it can be produced.

        First of all, such technology helps remove the 6)shackles from innovation. Until now, the creative process has been beset with obstacles, from the problems inherent in creating a prototype, to the difficulties of persuading a third party to become involved, to the expense of the final launch. And, of course, there’s no guarantee of ultimate success.

        But it’s easy to see how Maker technology suits this sort of 7)niche enterprise. Chances are that a savvy and committed market already exists for the right product, and, thanks to the Internet, it’s relatively easy to find it. What’s more, the current manufacturing technology that supports Makers is ideally suited to small batches of bespoke products—from customised plastic toys to tailored clothes.

        Moreover, you can, if you choose, make every item bespoke. And you can manufacture at home, perhaps using your own 3D printer (in the U.S., prices are already dropping to $1,000) or sending your files to a third party fitted out with the necessary kit. That said; I don’t believe that Makers enterprises have to remain smallscale.

        Imagine a new company, WindCo, making its first product: a small backyard wind turbine generator. They make the first prototype themselves, as well as a handful of others. Then, it’s time to go into serious production. WindCo is small, and they don’t have sufficient manufacturing capacity themselves, so they outsource to a factory in China that can handle small batches cheaply.

        If the product is successful and demand builds, they may well opt to move production back home to cut out delays. If it’s astonishingly successful, then they may decide to move production to a different factory in China that specialises in 8)bulk manufacturing. They have to be flexible because their business is constantly evolving. They are able to be flexible because their design files are digital, the tooling costs of setting up a new manufacturing operation are minimal, and they all use the same robotic machinery.

        That this can work is demonstrated by the success of a Colorado-based company, Sparkfun, which operates in one of the most ruthlessly cut-throat of all areas of business—electronics. Back in 2003 its founder, Nathan Seidle, was an undergraduate engineering student, who was finding it frustratingly difficult to locate electronic components that he needed for his projects. Today, Sparkfun designs and manufactures specialist printed circuit boards, using sophisticated pick-and-place robot machines to assemble them.

        Its employees are young, passionate and appear to totally love their jobs. Dogs and hobbies are indulged at work (though not on the production floor); tattoos and indie punk rock reflect its culture. It’s a far cry from the “dark satanic mill” vision of manufacturing—much closer in fact to the 9)maverick image of software companies in their startup days.

        And it works. Today, Sparkfun has more than 120 employees and annual revenues of around $30 million. It’s growing by 50% a year. A basketball-court-sized ground floor is dominated by robotic electronic production lines, running day and night. And its popular daily blog posts and tutorials have turned its retail website into a high-traffic community, with more than 50,000 visitors a day.

        The Maker movement has a long way to go before it can really be said to have come of age. But that doesn’t mean it should be ignored or regarded solely as a hobbyist’s or niche manufacturer’s paradise. It represents the first steps in a different way of doing business. Rather than top-down innovation by some of the biggest companies in the world, we’re starting to see bottom-up innovation by countless individuals, including amateurs, entrepreneurs and professionals. We’ve already seen it work before, in bits, from the original PC hobbyists to the web’s citizen army. Now the conditions have arrived for it to work again, on an even greater, broader scale, in atoms. If the Second Industrial Revolution was the Information Age, then I would argue that a Third Industrial Age is on its way: the age of the Makers.

        在20世紀40年代早期,我祖父有個很棒的想法。自從發(fā)現(xiàn)加利福尼亞人癡迷綠油油的前院草坪后,他就認定他們所需要的是一套自動灑水系統(tǒng)。他在這套系統(tǒng)上傾注了大量的時間和熱情,不停創(chuàng)新并精心調(diào)試,最后制作出了最為關(guān)鍵的電子鐘,無論在白天還是黑夜,都能夠在指定的時間里打開或是關(guān)上水閥。1943年,祖父適時申請到了專利號:2311108,同時他開始拜訪各大制造商。這個過程漫長而艱辛。最終,在1950年,經(jīng)過沒完沒了的商討,穆迪雨閥投入市面,為我祖父帶來了一筆不太多的收入。

        最近,我決定追隨他的步伐,再加上點21世紀的技術(shù)秘訣。在網(wǎng)上,我找到了和我一樣對改良灑水系統(tǒng)有興趣的同好。我們使用開源軟件的幫助,設(shè)計出一套新的灑水系統(tǒng),不僅能夠讓度假時心懷憂慮的園丁們通過一個應用程序進行遠程控制,而且還精良設(shè)計至加入當?shù)靥鞖鈱崟r預報,方便用家決定是打開還是關(guān)閉系統(tǒng)。然后我們將設(shè)計送往組裝廠,他們按時裝配好了一套外觀漂亮的成品,結(jié)果產(chǎn)品相當受歡迎。我祖父花了十年時間和不少錢來完善其產(chǎn)品并推向市場。而我們只用了幾個月和5000美元而已。

        簡而言之,這就是創(chuàng)客運動—利用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和最新的制造業(yè)科技來創(chuàng)造事物。在過去的十年里,網(wǎng)絡(luò)被用于發(fā)現(xiàn)新的合作方式以及提供服務。在接下來的十年,我相信,就是要把這些經(jīng)驗運用到現(xiàn)實世界當中。這就意味著,未來不僅屬于建立在虛擬原則之上的網(wǎng)絡(luò)產(chǎn)業(yè),同樣也屬于那些牢牢扎根于現(xiàn)實世界的產(chǎn)業(yè)。

        任何有著不錯的軟件產(chǎn)品構(gòu)想的人都能夠在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上建立一個極其成功的公司,這差不多已經(jīng)是個陳腔濫調(diào)了。因為在線上幾乎沒有任何阻止創(chuàng)業(yè)的障礙:只要你有一臺筆記本電腦和一張信用卡,你就能開始做生意。傳統(tǒng)意義上,制造業(yè)曾被看作是一種完全不同的產(chǎn)業(yè),但在過去的幾年間,某些顯著的改變開始發(fā)生了。實物產(chǎn)品的制造過程開始越來越趨近于數(shù)字產(chǎn)品的制造過程。

        各種各樣的創(chuàng)新都在使其變?yōu)榭赡堋J紫?,當然是互?lián)網(wǎng)的眾包力量—如果你并非全知全能,網(wǎng)上總會有人知道答案。在某個博客或是網(wǎng)上論壇里發(fā)布尋求幫助的信息,就會有那么一個專家從某個地方冒出來等著給你幫助。第二項創(chuàng)新便是,越來越智能的設(shè)計軟件能夠吸收不成熟的想法,并將其轉(zhuǎn)化為可操作的文檔。正如文字處理軟件對于用戶來說已經(jīng)變得更為簡易更為直觀,CAD(電腦輔助設(shè)計)軟件同時也變得更加精巧、更容易操作。你提供某種設(shè)計;CAD軟件解決如何投產(chǎn)的問題。

        首先,這一科技幫助解除了創(chuàng)新的枷鎖。直至今日,創(chuàng)新的進程常常遭遇各種障礙,包括產(chǎn)品原型創(chuàng)制過程中的內(nèi)在問題、勸服第三方加入的困難、最后投入市場的經(jīng)費,不一而足。當然了,誰也不能保證最后一定會成功。

        但是不難發(fā)現(xiàn)的是,創(chuàng)客科技十分適合于此類小眾產(chǎn)業(yè)。對于合適的產(chǎn)品來說,一個識貨且捧場的市場很可能早已存在,而多虧了互聯(lián)網(wǎng),找到這一市場也變得相對容易了。此外,目前支持創(chuàng)客們的制造科技對于小批量生產(chǎn)預訂產(chǎn)品也非常合適—從定制的塑料玩具到剪裁考究的成衣,應有盡有。

        此外,只要你愿意的話,你就能定制每件物品。而你在家就能制作,也許使用你自己的3D打印機(在美國,目前價格已降至1000美元),或者將你的文檔發(fā)給配有必需設(shè)備的第三方來制作。話雖如此,我卻并不認為創(chuàng)客產(chǎn)業(yè)就得保持小規(guī)模發(fā)展。

        想象一家叫WindCo的新公司,制作出了它的第一款產(chǎn)品:一個小型的后院風力發(fā)電機。他們自己制作了第一件產(chǎn)品原型,以及少量的樣板。接著,到了正規(guī)投產(chǎn)的階段。這家公司規(guī)模很小,自己沒有充足的生產(chǎn)能力,于是他們將其產(chǎn)品外包給了某家能夠以低價生產(chǎn)小批量產(chǎn)品的中國工廠。

        如果產(chǎn)品獲得了成功,市場需求增大,他們很可能會選擇將生產(chǎn)移回國內(nèi)以避免交貨延期。但如果產(chǎn)品空前大賣,接著他們也許會決定將生產(chǎn)移交給另一家專業(yè)大量生產(chǎn)的中國工廠。他們必須靈活應對,因為其生意在不斷發(fā)展。他們能夠靈活應對,是因為其設(shè)計圖紙是電子版的,建立新的制造業(yè)務所需的模具成本是有限的,用的是同樣的那套自動機械。

        科羅拉多州Sparkfun公司的成功證明了這種模式的可行性,其身處商業(yè)領(lǐng)域里競爭最為慘烈的行業(yè)之一—電子業(yè)?;厮莸?003年,公司的創(chuàng)始人內(nèi)森·西德爾還是個工程專業(yè)的本科生,他發(fā)現(xiàn)要為自己的項目尋找所需的電子組件極為困難。如今,Sparkfun設(shè)計并制造專門的印刷電路板,通過精密的拾放自動機械來組裝產(chǎn)品。

        該公司的雇員全都年輕、充滿激情且看起來十分熱愛自己的工作。工作時可隨意攜帶狗狗或是擁有別的愛好(不過生產(chǎn)車間除外);文身和獨立朋克搖滾樂反映了公司的文化。它與制造業(yè)“暗黑撒旦作坊”的形象相去甚遠—實際上倒更像處于創(chuàng)業(yè)初期的軟件公司那樣特立獨行。

        而這一切成功了。如今,Sparkfun已擁有超過120名員工,年收入約三千萬美元,且正在以每年50%的速度增長?;@球場大小的首層大樓被自動化電子生產(chǎn)線所占據(jù),日夜不停地運轉(zhuǎn)。而其備受歡迎且每日更新的博文和教程,將其零售網(wǎng)站轉(zhuǎn)變成了信息量巨大的社區(qū),每天有超過五萬用戶訪問。

        創(chuàng)客運動還有很長的一段路要走,才能真正被看作是迎來自己的時代。但這并不意味著它應該被忽視,或是僅僅被視為玩家或小眾制造業(yè)的天堂。它代表了以不同方式經(jīng)營生意所邁出的第一步。不同于某些世界上最大型的企業(yè)所進行的自上而下的革新,我們正開始看見由無數(shù)個體所進行的自下而上的推進革新,其中包括業(yè)余愛好者、企業(yè)家和專業(yè)人士等。我們已經(jīng)見到了它之前所取得的成功,在比特范疇上,從最初的PC機愛好者到網(wǎng)上的市民部隊。如今再度取得成功的條件已經(jīng)到來,在更宏大、更廣泛的范圍內(nèi),在原子范疇上。如果說第二次工業(yè)革命是信息時代,那么我想說的是,一場第三次工業(yè)革命正要到來:那就是創(chuàng)客時代。

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