Yan PANG，Yangkun XIA

School of Transportation and Logistics，Central South University of Forestry and Technology，Changsha 410004，China

1 Introduction

Nowadays，the natural resources are limited，environmental issues become increasingly prominent，and humans begin to pursue coordinated economic，environmental，and social development.In 2009，China listed logistics industry as one of the top ten industries to be revitalized，and laid emphasis on innovation ofmodern logisticsmode to promote economic and social development.In 2012，China proposed making great efforts to promote the construction of ecological civilization，and came up with the basic national policy of saving resourcesand protecting environment，in order to promote green development，cycle development and lowcarbon development，which providesgood opportunities for the development of ecological industry and circulation industry.As important ecological products，agricultural products showed significant advantages and potential in stimulating domestic demand，promoting employment，increasing farmers'income and cultivating new industries amid 2008 financial crisis.However，because of special attributes of agricultural products，it has revealed a number of potential risks，and it is imperative to make agricultural products effectively respond to financial risks and establish effective evaluation indicator system for logistics finance risk of agricultural products.

2 Current studies on logistics finance of agricultural products

2.1 Studies on logistics of agricultural productsLogistics of agricultural products first appeared in the United States，which focused on how to improve the efficiency of distribution ofagricultural products，and explore the importance of logisticsdevelopment to circulation of agricultural products.John.F.Crowell［1］（1901）was the first to explore the logistics and distribution of agricultural products，and analyze the factors that affect the distribution costs of agricultural products in Report of the Industrial Commission on the Distribution of Farm Products，making important contribution to the study of logistics of agricultural products.In Marketing of Agricultural Products，F(xiàn)red.E.Clerk and L.D.H.Weld［2］（1932）included logistics in the marketing of agricultural products，and analyzed the transportation and distribution，warehouse management and financing risk in agricultural marketing.In the late 20th century，with increasingly severe global resources and environmental problems，the concept of green logistics and green supply chain was developed.Scholars［3］generally agree that the development of green agricultural product logistics is inseparable from effective financial support，and small andmedium-sized agricultural enterprises lacking financial support are difficult to avoid green barriers.

2.2 Studies on logistics finance of agricultural productsThe domestic and foreign studies on logistics finance are carried out around risk management.The foreign scholars represented by T.E.Gradel＆B.R.Allenby［4］generally believe that carrying out the logistics finance business of agricultural productswill help avoid green barriers，and reduce operating costs；they point out that the logistics finance business is prone to risk，and it is necessary to assess risks prior to carrying out logistics finance business，and implement specific risk management in accordance with the characteristics of logistics finance business products.The domestic logistics finance theories initially started from the business ofmaterial bank and warehouse receipt pledge，and then focused on the risk issues in carrying out logistics finance business.Domestic scholars［5］generally agree that themain body of logistics finance business should include three parties（logistics companies，financial institutions，client enterprise），and information asymmetry between banks and enterprises is the reason for logistics companies'participation in logistics finance business as third-party.Based on related literature，it can be found that the green idea has blended into logistics finance business of agricultural products，which is themonetarymovementaimed atachieving efficient combination of interflow of goods andmaterials，information flow，capital flow and human resource flow.In the operation process of modern agricultural logistics，logistics companies and financial institutions innovate upon design and develop a variety of financial products，to suppress the damage ofmodern agricultural logistics to the environmentasmuch as possible，purify agricultural product logistics environment and optimize the allocation of logistics resources.China's modern rural financial development is seriously lagging behind，and carrying out the logistics finance business of agricultural productswill greatly promote the development of new socialist rural economy，narrow the gap between urban and rural areas，and achieve sustainable development of China's economy and society.

3 Establishment of risk evaluation indicator system for the logistics finance of agricultural products

3.1 Risk analysis of the logistics finance of agricultural productsAt present，logistics finance，as a new cross-sectoral integrated logistics service mode，has achieved great success in the industrial area，and played an exemplary role in developing agricultural product logistics，but with the development of green logistics and innovation of financial reform，many problems have gradually appeared in the process of bilateral cooperation.The logistics finance businesswas carried out in China not long ago，and the original extensive developmentmode of logistics companies is difficult to avoid green barriers.Most of agricultural products are perishable and fragile，and it is difficult to ensure themortgage financing safety，so there are many constraints on the logistics finance of agricultural products.Therefore，it is particularly important to identify the risk factors concerning the logistics finance of agricultural products，and build effective risk evaluation indicator system for the logistics finance of agricultural products.

3.2 Establishment of risk evaluation indicator system for the logistics finance of agricultural productsThere aremany factors influencing the risk management on the logistics finance of agricultural products.Based on characteristics of agricultural products and logistics finance business，according to"reduction，reuse and recycling"principles of green logistics，we establish a three-level risk evaluation indicator system for the logistics finance ofagricultural products.This risk evaluation indicator system comprises 1 goal，6 first-level indicators and 20 second-level indicators.It measures the logistics finance business of agricultural products from agricultural enterprises，agricultural collateral，operation process of logistics companies，internal management and external environment of logistics companies.The specific risk evaluation indicator system is shown in Table 1.

Table1 The risk evaluation indicator system for the logistics finance of agricultural products

4 Fuzzy-AHP risk evaluation model

Fuzzy-AHP model is a qualitative and quantitative evaluation method.Ituses AHPmethod to determine theweightof each indicator，and also uses Fuzzymethod to carry out comprehensive evaluation，so thatwe can sort the indicators in terms of importance according to AHPmethod，and perform the comprehensive evaluation，so it is very suitable for risk evaluation.This study uses Fuzzy-AHPmodel［6］to evaluate the logistics finance risk of agricultural products.

4.1 Profile of Enterprise AEnterprise A，located in Chang-sha，Hunan Province，is a third-party logistics enterprise with years of storage industry background.It covers an area of about 250000 squaremeters.The area of standard freight yard reaches 140000 square meters，the area of store house reaches 40000 squaremeters，and the annual throughput is up to 1.5 million tons.Enterprise A is the first one to carry out logistics finance business in Hunan Province.Since 2007，it has conducted logistics finance business in the industrial field and mainly implemented warehouse receiptpledge business.By the end of2014，Enterprise A had established good partnershipswith more than a dozen banks such as Agricultural Development Bank，Industrial and Commercial Bank of China，Guangdong Development Bank and Bank of Changsha.It had provided logistics financial services for more than 200 small andmedium-sized enterprises including nearly 20 agricultural enterprises.Its mortgage products cover more than 40 categories，such as buildingmaterials and chemical products，agricultural products，non-ferrous metals，oil，production materials，rubber products and textiles.

4.2 Calculating weight using AHPmethod

4.2.1Calculation example.（i）Building the judgmentmatrix.Using 1-9 scalemethod［7］，we build the judgmentmatrix（Table 2）.According to the experts'pairwise comparisons on the importance of B1，B2，B3，B4and B5，we can get the judgmentmatrix A.

（ii）Calculating the weight.Using yaahp software，we calculate the weight of B1-B5to goal A as follows：

The B-A levelweight vector is as follows：

Table 2 1－9 scalemethod

4.2.2All calculation resultsusing AHP.Similarly，using yaahp software，we can calculate theweightof various levels，and the results are shown in Table 4 to Table 10.From the results，we can see that all judgmentmatricesmeet the consistency ratio C.R.＜0.01，so the judgmentmatrix is effective.In Table 4，the importance is in the order of B4＞B3＞B2＞B1＞B5，and B4，B3，are closely related to the logistics companies，indicating that in the logistics finance business risk of agricultural products，the factors from the logistics companies are most important，and there is a need to strengthen risk management.Additionally，due to the characteristics of agricultural collateral，the risks it brings also need to be prevented.

Table3 Themean random consistency indicators of judgmentmatrix

Table 4 Calculation results of B-A judgmentmatrix

Table 5 Calculation results of C1-B1 judgmentmatrix

Table 6 Calculation results of C2-B2 judgmentmatrix

Table7 Calculation results of C 3-B3 judgmentmatrix

Table8 Calculation results of C4-B4 judgmentmatrix

Table 9 Calculation results of C5-B5 judgmentmatrix

Table 10 W eight of indicators at various levels and totalweight

4.3 Com prehensive evaluation using fuzzy methodAccording to the previous AHPmethod，we can get the final weight set.W0is theweightvector of five first-level indicators，and the20 parameters in W1，W2，W3，W4and W5are theweightsof20 secondary indicators.Details are as follows：

The fuzzy calculation process is as follows：

（i）Determine the evaluation set.The risks of the logistics finance business of agricultural products carried out by Enterprise A are divided into five levels：high，relatively high，normal，relatively low and low.The 5-point scoringmethod is used，and the mean of various levels is taken in weighted comprehensive calculation.Here the risk score evaluation set is defined as V，V＝｛v1，v2，v3，v4，v5｝＝｛high，relatively high，normal，relatively low，low｝＝｛4.5，3.5，2.5，1.5，0.5｝.According to Table 11，from the final overall score G，we can judge whether the logistics companies can carry out the logistics finance business of agricultural products.

Table 11 5-point scoring results

（ii）Determine the fuzzy correlation matrix.Based on the expert scoring results，five categories of risk fuzzy correlationmatrix are established as shown in r1-r2，and the risk levels from left to right in each line ofmatrix are high，relatively high，normal，relatively low，low.

（iii）Fuzzy comprehensive calculation.According to the formula Ri＝Wi×ri（i＝1，2，3，4，5），we can get the fuzzy evaluation vector Ri：

Riis integrated into fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix R：

From the formula P′＝W0×R，we get P′＝W0×R＝［0.2160 0.2406 0.2371 0.2163 0.1609］.Then we normalize the vector P′，and get the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector P：

Finally，using theweighted averagemethod，we get the comprehensive evaluation score of the logistics finance risk of agricultural products（G）：

（iv）Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analysis.From the comprehensive score G＝2.6256∈［2，3），it is found that the final risk is a normal risk，that is，we can carry out the logistics finance business of agricultural products，but there is a need to strengthen risk prevention.The risk of agricultural collateral is far greater than the risk of industrial products［9］，therefore，when the third-party logistics companies carry out the logistics finance business of agricultural products，it is necessary to focus on the prevention of risk from agricultural collateral and internalmanagement of logistics companies.

6 Conclusions

Themutual cooperation between logistics industry and financial industry，and the implementation of the logistics finance business of agricultural products，is a good way to achieve all-win among logistics companies，small and medium-sized agricultural enterprises and financial institutions.The combination of logistics and finance can not only bring new profit growth point for themodern logistics enterprises，but also solve financing problems for the small andmedium-sized agriculturalenterprises，and promote the developmentof China's rural financial services.In this study，we build a risk evaluation indicator system for the logistics finance of agricultural products，use Fuzzy-AHP model to evaluate the logistics finance risk of agricultural products，and find the key factors that affect the implementation of the logistics finance business of agricultural products，to help logistics finance business entities to develop more effective risk prevention measures.

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