Jianxin LU，Yuwei SU

School of Finance，Zhongnan University of Economics and Law，Wuhan 430073，China

1 Introduction

The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China deployed new policies and measures for construction of new socialist countryside.At present，the new socialist countryside construction has stepped into new development stage，but it still faces many problems，including failure to realize land circulation in a larger range and proper allocation，difficulty in obtaining extensive social fund support，and failure of non-agricultural investors to invest in rural areas.There is no doubt that the issue of rural land circulation is the key to these problems.

Existing literature conducts studies from following aspects.（1）Function of land circulation.Carter and Yao（1999）believed that rural land circulation in China has marginal leveling effect and transaction income effect.Terry（2003）stated that solving fragmental land problem depends on land circulationmarket.Jiang and Liu（2003）pointed out that letting farmers participate in industrialization with land right is favorable for local industrialization.（2）Factors influencing land circulation.Bogaerts et al.（2002）contended that effective land circulation market not only needs clear definition of property right，but also needs supportive systems and regulation measures.Chen et al.（2008）indicated that weakening of land complex of farmers is favorable for rural land circulation，but clear property right will not necessarily promote land circulation.Xu（2011）pointed out that educational level，occupation，non-agricultural vocational skills，commercial endowment，and whether possess right of land transfer，as well as stability of land right，all have significant influence on rural land circulation，while family endowment has significant negative influence on rural land circulation.Han and Tian（2012）believed that factors influencing willingness of rural land circulation mainly include age，educational level，proportion of income from crop cultivation，and fixed number of years for land circulation.（3）Securitization support of land circulation.Fan（1995）discussed significance，operating principle，key points，external conditions，and supporting measures of land securitization.Gao（2009）considered that capitalization and securitization of farmland will be inevitable，and proper modes of rural land circulation include transfer，share cooperation and securitization.Zhang（2010）analyzed operating mode and economic performance of securitization of rural land.These studies lay theoretical foundation for standardization and marketization of China's rural land circulation and basically clarify factors influencing land circulation.However，their samples mainly come from some counties and cities of a certain province；their studies on securitization of rural land also basically remain at popularization and introduction of operation mode，and no survey and statistical analysis were carried out.In view of these，it is intended to make some improvement in our study.

2 Overview of the survey and selection of variables

Central regions are the most prominent in issues concerning agriculture，farmers and rural areas，key regions in the new round of industrialization and urbanization，and also regions having great potential for growth of domestic demand，so they stay strategic position in the regional development pattern of China in the new period.For this，the State Council issued Several Opinions on Vigorous Implementation of the Strategy of Promoting the Rise of Central Regions in August，2012，specially stressing that it is required to guide orderly and standardized circulation of land contracted man-agement right in accordance with legal，voluntary and paid principles.In addition，it should breaking administrative monopoly and blockade，speed up establishing uniform and open market system，cultivate and develop land market.In view of these，on the basis of nearly a thousand copies of questionnaire obtained in 6 central provinces，we analyzed willingness of rural land circulation and securitization and influencing factors with the aid of Logistic model and Multinomial Logit model，in the hope of providing strategic support for rise of central regions.

2.1 Overview of the surveyThe data in this paper were obtained our survey in 54 natural villages of 22 cities（counties）in Hubei，Hunan，Henan，Anhui，Jiangxi and Shanxi provinces in July to Augustof2012.We issued a total of1 000 copies of questionnaire，including200 copies in Hubei，Hunan，Henan and Anhui respectively and 100 copies in Jiangxi and Shanxi separately.Finally，we received 966 valid copies of questionnaire（acceptance rate up to 96.6%）.The questionnaire mainly touches upon four aspects and includes 30 questions.

（1）General information of households：geographical location of residence；whether in the circle of3 km from towns；educational level of householder；and occupational distribution.

（2）Questions about rural land circulation：whether land contracted by householders is sufficient；whether they intend to contract more land，which mode they like to take in management of contracted land；whether there iswasteland near the residence；whether householders understand land circulation；whether they have participated in land circulation；major objects of land circulation；whether householders are willing to transfer in or out contracted land；major approaches of land circulation；difficulty in obtaining land circulation information.

（3）Questions about factors influencing rural land circulation：major factors influencing enthusiasm of householders for cultivation；major factors influencing land circulation；whether preferential policies such as deduction and exemption of agricultural taxes，and grain subsidy，can obviously promote rural land circulation；whether rightsand interests of householders are infringed in the process of land circulation；which contractmode can bring into play land functions to the maximum extent；approaches to increase land income.

（4）Questions about securitization of rural land：which approach is the best for improving rural fund raising；when rural land securitization is implemented，if householders are willing to buy land securities；major factors influencing rural economic development；which is the largest shortage of rural economic development；which is the largest potential of rural economic development.

2.2 Selection of variablesTo analyze factors influencing willingness of land circulation and securitization，we should take merge processing of survey data，and convert the data to variables for Logistic regression analysis.The converted variables and statistical description are listed in Table 1.

Table1 Definitionofvariablesandstatisticaldescription

Following points should be noted：（1）variables were taken from 30 questions in the questionnaire，some variables were rejected due to insignificance in subsequent regression analysis，and sample observation value was 966；（2）when farmers are willing to transfer in or out land，dependent variable land circulation willingness y1takes 1；when farmers are willing to maintain current status or have no intention of land circulation，y1takes 0；（3） there are three options for best approaches of improving fund-raising methods：（i）obtaining loans from banks with agricultural support policies，such as rural credit cooperatives；（ii）borrowing money by the collective through centralized operation of land；（iii）converting land use right to shares which can be transferred.Corresponding to these three options，the dependent variable willingness y2of land securitization takes 1，2，and 3 respectively；（iv）definition and statistical characteristics of other variables are listed in Table 1.

3 Empirical analysis

The above statistical data reflectsome basic characteristics of rural land circulation and securitization in central regions.However，it is still unclear about which factors will influence willingness of rural land circulation and securitization and the influence degree.

3.1 Willingness of rural land circulationWe used dual Logistic model to analyze willingness of rural land circulation and influence factors.The dependent variable is willingness of land circulation（y1），explanatory variables include basic information of residents，land circulation status，factors influencing land circulation，and land securitization（listed in Table 1）.The regression equation is as follows：

In equation（1），P is the probability of residents participating in rural land circulation，namely，the willingness for participating in land circulation；xkrefers to various factors influencing residents participating in land circulation decisions；β0is constant term；βkis partial effect coefficient，indicating changes in Logodds with increase of independent variable xkfor 1 unit.Although such explanation is straightforward，its implication is obscure in fact，because the Log-odds has no visual meaning.Thus，Logit（P）is often explained through converting to Odds or Odds Ratio，instead of explaining the coefficient itself.In this study，we used Stata12.0 statistical software and sample data to make Logistic regression analysis of equation（1），and result report is shown in Table 2.

Table2 StatisticalresultofLogistic modelforwillingnessofrurallandcirculationincentralregions

Two points should be noted：（1）we treated categorical variables as design variables.If a categorical variable includesm categories，setm-1 dummy variables，and the category omitted is taken as reference category.Most studies directly carried out Logistic regression for categorical variables.As a result，they took categorical variables to continuous variables，and consequently leading to mistake in estimation.（2）Thisstudy only reportsOdds Ratio and noβcoefficient，because we can obtainβcoefficient of corresponding variables from taking natural logarithm of Odds Ratio.Summarizing regression results，we can reach following conclusions：

3.1.1 Land contract and management mode is the largest positive stimulating factor influencing land circulation willingness.In land contract mode，compared with maintaining current status，the circulation willingness is higher for other three modes，namely，still implementing household contract responsibility system，but the state responsible for social security of farmers contracting farmland；centralized cultivation by few people in the form of bidding；township operation through converting land to share，their Odds Ratio is2.187，2.663 and 2.759 respectively.In land management mode，compared with self cultivation，the circulation willingness is higher for other threemodes，namely，subcontracting to others，contracting more land from others，and converting land to shares to obtain dividends，and their Odds Ratio is2.455，2.546 and 1.739 respectively.

3.1.2 Fund-raising method and factors restricting rural economic development have significant influence on willingness of land circulation.Compared with obtaining loans from banks with agricultural support policies，such as rural credit cooperatives，other two methods，namely，borrowing money by the collective through centralized operation of land，and converting land use right to shares which can be transferred，are more probable to stimulate householders'circulation willingness，and their Odds Ratio is1.699 and 1.271 respectively.This indicates that fund raising method has significantly positive influence on land circulation willingness.As for factors restricting rural economic development，compared with lack of development funds，too little land per capita or lack of technologies will significantly influence land circulation willingness，and their Odds Ratio is 0.702 and 1.681 respectively.

3.1.3 Whether the land contracted is sufficient，whether householders understand land circulation，and non-agricultural skills have significantly positive influence on circulation willingness.Whether the land contracted is sufficient has significant influence of circulation willingness，and its Odds Ratio is 1.596，showing that householders with more contracted land are more willing to circulate land.Similarly，whether householders understand land circulation has significant influence on circulation influence，and the Odds Ratio of those who understand land circulation is 1.394 compared with those who do not understand land circulation.Besides，non-agricultural skill of householders has significant influence on land circulation，and those householders with non-agricultural skill shave Odds Ratio of land circulation up to1.265，possibly because their dependence on land is lowered and accordingly they are more confident in finding jobs after land circulation.

3.1.4 The distance to towns and whether rights and interests of householders are infringed have significantly negative influence on circulation willingness.Householders living in the 3 km circle of towns aremore unwilling for land circulation，and the Odds Ratio is0.620 compared with those householders living outside the 3 km circle of towns.The nearer to towns，the higher chance of land value increment，thus householder living near to towns are unwilling to circulate land.In addition，infringement of rights and interests of householders has significant influence on willingnessof land circulation.Those householders whose rights and interests have been infringed have the Odds Ratio of0.520 compared with those whose rights and interests are not infringed.

3.1.5 Enthusiasm of householders for cultivation and land income ways are major factors influencing land circulation willingness.Compared with too low grain income，such factors as lack of labor，higher income frommigration work，poorwater conservancy infrastructure，and failure in implementation of policies，lead to lower willingness for land circulation，and their Odds Ratio is 0.956，0.496，0.344 and 0.376 respectively.By contrast，the willingness resulted from such factors as increasing land input，centralized operation of land，and large-scale planting of crops，is much lower，and their Odds Ratio is 0.565，0.614 and 0.584 separately.

3.2 Willingness of rural land securitizationBestapproaches for improving rural fund-raising include（i）obtaining loans from banks with agricultural support policies，such as rural credit cooperatives，（ii）borro wing money by the collective through centralized operation of land，and（iii）converting land use right to shares which can be transferred.Corresponding to these three approaches，the dependent variable land securitization willingness y2takes 1，2 and 3 respectively and isestimated through Multinomial Logitmodel：

In equation（2），Logit is generated from comparison of different categories of dependent variables.Later，a model is built separately for each Logit.If the dependent variables have j categories，the model will have j-1 Logit，and the first category is taken as reference category.In this study，j＝1.In other words，＂obtaining loans from banks with agricultural support policies，such as rural credit cooperatives＂is taken as base result.The coefficient of this result is set at0 and Risk Ratio of other results is defined as the risk ratio of probability of this base result.The coefficient of independent variable is positive，which means that the risk ratiowill be higher for observing a certain case belong to category j rather than category 1，provided no change in other variables；a negative coefficientmeans thatwith increase in independent variables，the possibility of being base category is relatively higher than being the category j.Besides，since Multinomial Logit model is a nonlinear mode，the influence of changes in independent variable x on result probability isnot fixed，thus，we generally apply relatively simpler explanation based on the Risk Ratio and Odds Ratio（Daniel and Xie，2009）.In this study，we used Stata12.0 statistical software and sample data tomake Logistic regression analysis of equation（2），and result report is shown in Table 3.

Summarizing the above regression results，we can reach following conclusions：

3.2.1 Land contract mode and willingness for buying land securities have significant positive influence on willingness of land securitization.Compared with obtaining loans from banks with agricultural support policies，such as rural credit cooperatives，land contract mode is the largest positive stimulating factor for willingness of land securitization.In land contract mode，compared with maintaining current status，the securitization willingness is higher for other three modes，namely，still implementing household contract responsibility system，but the state responsible for social security of farmers contracting farmland；centralized cultivation by few people in the form of bidding；township operation through converting land to share，their risk ratio is 3.349，4.926 and 8.586（e1.209，e1.594，and e2.150）respectively.This indicates that land contract mode is the largest positive stimulating factor influencing land securitization.Relative to reference category，the probability of land securitization willingness is higher for buying land securities than unwilling to buy land securities，and the relative risk ratio is1.614.This shows that whether farmers are willing to buy land securities has significant influence on land securitization willingness.

Table3 EstimationresultofwillingnessofrurallandsecuritizationincentralregionsthroughMultinomialLogitmodel

3.2.2 Land circulation information，circulation willingness and farmer-benefiting policies have significant positive influence on willingness of land securitization.Relative to reference category，the probability of land securitization willingness is higher for easily obtaining land transfer-in and transfer-out information than difficult to acquire such information，and the relative risk ratio is 1.761.Similarly，the probability of land securitization willingness is higher for householders having land circulation willingness than thosewithout land circulation willingness，and the relative risk ratio is 1.297.The probability of willingness to buy land securities is higher for preferential policies such as deduction and exemption of agricultural taxes，and grain subsidy than failure in implementation of such policies，and the relative risk ratio is 1.558.The above data indicate that land circulation information，circulation willingness and farmer-benefiting policies have significant positive influence on willingness of land securitization.

3.2.3 Land circulation approaches and enthusiasm of householders for cultivation have significant influence on willingness of land securitization.Compared with reference category，land circulation approaches and enthusiasm of householders for cultivation have significant influence on willingness of land securitization.In land circulation approaches，compared with completely spontaneous securitization，the relative risk ratio of land securitization is 1.018 and 0.908 respectively for village organization or coordination，and organization by rural specialized economic cooperatives.This indicates that village organization or coordination is more probable to stimulate land securitization than spontaneous circulation，while the organization by rural specialized economic cooperatives is not more probable to stimulate land securitization willingness than completely spontaneous circulation.In cultivation enthusiasm of householders，compared with too low grain income，such factors as lack of labor，higher income from migration work，poor water conservancy infrastructure，and failure in implementation of policies，lead to lower risk ratio of land securitization，0.975，0.485，0.519 and 1.128 respectively.

3.2.4 Land use type has significantly negative influence on willingness of land securitization.Compared with reference category，the land use type has significantly negative influence on relative probability of land securitization.By contrast，the willingness of land securitization resulted from such factors as increasing land input，centralized operation of land，and large-scale planting of crops，is much lower，and their risk ratio is 0.295，0.366 and 0.170 separately.

3.2.5 Traffic convenience and infringement of rights and interests have significant negative influence on willingness of land securitization.Compared with reference category，traffic convenience of householders'residence has significantly negative influence on relative probability of land securitization willingness，and the risk ratio of convenient traffic is0.861 relative to inconvenient traffic.In addition，infringement of rights and interests of house-holders has significantly negative influence on willingness of land securitization.Those householders whose rights and interests have been infringed have the lower risk ratio of 0.672 compared with those whose rights and interests are not infringed.

Besides，through calculation，we can know that the forecasting probability of best approaches for improving rural fund-raising is56.94%，21.32%and 21.74%respectively.This reflects that about56.94%householders are inclined to obtain loan from banks having agricultural support policies such as rural credit cooperatives，and about 21.74%householders have the willingness of land securitization.

4 Policy recommendations

This study indicates that factors influencing willingness of rural land circulation and securitization mainly include land contract method，land circulation information and approaches，rights and interests of farmers infringed or not，policies of benefiting farmers，and non-agricultural skills.According to the survey data and regression analysis results，combining appeal of relevant policies in the Report to the Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China and Several Opinions on Vigorous Implementation of the Strategy of Promoting the Rise of Central Regions，we come up with following recommendations.

（1）Reforming and improving land contract methods.Land contract mode is the largest positive stimulating factor for land circulation and securitization willingness.Compared with maintaining current status，the circulation and securitization willingness is higher for other three modes，namely，still implementing household contract responsibility system，but the state responsible for social security of farmers contracting farmland；centralized cultivation by few people in the form of bidding；township operation through converting land to share.Therefore，it is necessary to reform and improve existing land contract mode in well-designed ways.

（2）Strengthening disclosure of land circulation information.Land circulation information is an important factor influencing land circulation and securitization，and the probability of land securitization willingness ishigher for easily obtaining land transfer-in and transfer-out information than difficult to acquire such information.Thus，rural government should set up related information platform and issue information about land transfer-in and transfer-out timely，tomake farmers accurately and promptly acquire related information and make proper decision.

（3）Reforming and improving land contract approaches.Land circulation approach has significant influence on land circulation and securitization willingness.Compared with completely spontaneous securitization，the relative risk ratio of land securitization is higher for village organization or coordination，and organization by rural specialized economic cooperatives.In this situation，land circulation or securitization should not completely rely on spontaneous circulation.Instead，rural government must bring into play its organization and coordination functions，or set up proper economic cooperatives，to smoothly promote rural land circulation.

（4）Strengthening protection of farmers'rights and interests in the process of land circulation.Infringement of rights and interests of householders has significantly negative influence on willingness of land circulation and securitization.Those householders whose rights and interests have been infringed have the lower probability compared with those whose rights and interests are not infringed.Thus，it is required to practically reinforce protection of rights and interests of farmers in the process of land circulation.

（5）Reinforcing and implementing policies benefiting farmers.The probability of willingness to buy land securities is higher for preferential policies such as deduction and exemption of agricultural taxes，and grain subsidy than failure in implementation of such policies.Thus，it is required to enhance and implement various farmer-benefiting policies to support rural land circulation.

（6）Cultivating and developing farmers'non-agricultural skills.Non-agricultural skill of householders has significant influence on land circulation，and those householders with non-agricultural skills have higher willingness of land circulation than those without non-agricultural skills.In view of this，it is feasible to cultivate and improve farmers'non-agricultural skills to promote land circulation.

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