By+Ding+Ying

The first batch of chemical weapons was shipped out of Syria on January 7， bringing bigger hopes for a peaceful settlement to the chemical weapon issue in the country. Although it is too early to say that Syrias crisis can be ended in the immediate future， the move will at least clear away an obstacle to a political settlement and negotiations between the Syrian Government and opposition groups.

A good start

On December 27， 2013， at the invitation of Russia， representatives from China， the United States， Syria， Denmark， Norway and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons （OPCW）-UN joint mission held a multilateral coordination meeting in Moscow. They agreed on a plan to escort a secure and smooth transport of Syrian chemical weapons. The Chinese naval vessel Yancheng went on to participate in the joint escort mission on January 7 together with naval vessels from Russia， Denmark and Norway.

The world is thrilled to see a positive development in Syrias three-year-long conflict. Both the OPCW and the UN released statements to welcome the fresh progress， hailing it as an important step toward a resolution to the crisis.

“China has become an indispensable part of handling the Syrian conflict，” Liu Yueqin， a senior research fellow on Syrian studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences （CASS）， said to Beijing Review. She explained that China has long insisted on a peaceful solution to the chemical weapon issue in Syria. It had three motions of the UN Security Council on military attacks against Syria vetoed together with Russia， which to some degree led to the final peaceful solution. Furthermore， China is part of Russias “chemical weapons for peace” plan， she added.

Liu pointed out that the agreement in- volved negotiations among both great powers and regional countries. She said that the Syrian Government surprisingly accepted Russias“chemical weapons for peace” plan soon after the Group of 20 Summit was held in Moscow in early September last year. “It proved that Russia and the United States must have reached a common understanding on the chemical weapon issue，” said Liu.

“We believe that a timely and swift removal of chemical weapons will help advance the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria. China applauds the efforts made by all parties and the ensuing progress. China will step up coordination with all parties to jointly ensure the safety and success of the shipping process，” said Hua Chunying， spokeswoman of Chinas Ministry of Foreign Affairs on January 8.endprint

Chen Kai， Vice Secretary General of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association， considered the chemical weapon transport as a good start to the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria. He believed that the encouraging beginning will positively influence the situation in both Syria and the wider region. He explained that it was very challenging for Syria to prepare for the transport of chemical weapons to the sea under a complex domestic environment in such a short time.

“This is a joint achievement made by related parties， including the UN， the OPCW and global powers including China， Russia and the United States，” said Chen. “All parties made great efforts through diplomatic mediation for a peaceful solution.” Chen noted that there were few precedents of transporting chemical weapons for disposal. But he believes that as long as current international cooperation is sustained， destruction of chemical weapons in Syria will be peacefully and effectively carried out.

The UN Security Council passed Resolution 2118 on the destruction of Syrian chemical weapons in September 2013， ordering the special procedure of disposing of Syrias chemical weapons in the safest and speediest way. According to the resolution， all shipments of chemical weapons are expected to complete by February 5. Additionally， all chemical weapons facilities and equipment in Syria should be destroyed before June 30， 2014. Based on the resolution， the first shipment was actually slightly delayed.

“China welcomes the positive and notable outcomes of the verification and destruction of chemical weapons in Syria and appreciates the efforts made by the UN， the OPCW， the Syrian Government and relevant parties of the international community，” said Hua. “However， numerous difficulties and uncertainties remain in this historic work.” China suggested that ensuring security be a top priority， saying the postponement in the transport of chemical weapons was justified. China expects all relevant parties to keep creating favorable conditions and make concerted efforts to press ahead with the destruction of chemical weapons.

“The chemical weapon crisis finally reached a peaceful solution in 2013， which will positively influence Syrias situation，” said Wu Sike， Chinas envoy on Middle East issues.

Chinas participation in escorting the shipment of chemical weapons shows that China is taking on more responsibilities in the Syrian crisis， said Li Shaoxian， a senior research fellow on Middle East studies with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. Chinas stance of promoting a peaceful solution to the crisis never wavers， said Li. He believes that as Chinas national strength grows， it will be able to play a more active and constructive role in the region.endprint

China has been providing practical assistance as well as diplomatic support to Syrian people， donating another batch of assistance materials to the country on January 10. The 20 million yuan （$3.2 million） of aid resources，including quilts and blankets， will help Syrian refugees survive the cold winter. Latest statistics from the UN show that at least 2.3 million Syrians fled to other countries in the region， while more than 4.25 million have become homeless.

Twilight of a crisis

The UN confirmed on January 6 that the international conference of Syria will be held in two phases in Montreux and Geneva， Switzerland， from January 22 to 26. It will be the first time for the Syrian Government and opposition to respectively dispatch representatives to an international conference targeting a peaceful solution of Syrias crisis.

But sitting together will be just the first step for negotiations between the two sides. Considering the complex state of affairs in Syria， there will be few expectations for reaching a practical agreement to solve the crisis， which has dragged on since early 2011.

The international community has agreed to seek political settlement to the Syrian crisis and destruction of chemical weapons in the country， said Wu. He pointed out that in spite of the significance of the upcoming conference to Syrias situation， uncertainties still exist due to the related parties differing views of a political solution. Moreover， opposition forces in Syria cannot unite because of their different stances. The conference will be an open platform for different powers， but it will be very hard to make practical progress， said Wu.

The biggest difference between the government and the opposition is over whether to dismiss current President Bashar al-Assad， which has prevented a settlement， said Liu from the CASS. Liu added that it will not be easy for different opposition groups to choose representatives to participate in the coming conference.

Li agreed that the possibility of reaching practical progress is slight. He explained that the conference will focus on establishing an interim government and preventing victory of extreme religious militants， and it will be hard to reach consensus on both issues. He said that due to Egypts situation and the breakthrough in the Iranian nuclear issue， the Syrian crisis will be less important than it was in 2013.endprint

There will be a general election in Syria after Assad completes his term in the spring. The West hopes to see a power switch after the election. But Assad is unlikely to give up his administration as he is currently winning the battle for power domestically.

Liu said that Assad still has a good chance to win the election. “Assad is firmly supported by women and young people in Syria as well as by the ruling Alawites. Moreover， the opposition groups reputation has fallen after scandals like the cannibalism affair that occurred last June，”said Liu. “It will be difficult to find a substitute who has the ability to clean up the mess in Syria.” She predicted that once Assad wins the coming election， Washington might change its former approach of ousting Assad.

The United States started changing its stance after Al Qaeda became involved in the Syrian conflict， said Liu. “At least Assad will confront Al Qaeda， which is helpful to Washingtons anti-terrorism goals，” Liu added.endprint