by Parmy Olson

Mobile technology is breathing new life into devices we once thought were rather boring—like watches. A year ago， who needed to buy a watch when you could pull a smartphone out of your pocket and read the time on a brightly-lit screen？ Yet that sentiment may change soon enough.

Apple is betting consumers will have found the pulling-out-of-the-pocket 1）manoeuvre too tiring once they realize they can simply glance at their wrist to check the time， along with their email， social media notifications and heart rate. Apple has around 100 people working on a watch-like device that could come this year， according to Bloomberg News and 2）The Verge， and its rumored to be called the iWatch， running 3）parallel to that other big wearable device product in the works in Silicon Valley： Google Glass.

Where might that leave smartphones？

In the U.S.， Europe and parts of Asia which are deeply 4）saturated with smart， mobile devices， consumers may eventually decide the smartest machines they own are no longer pocketable 5）slabs for wireless communication， but the watch or glasses they can wear and barely have to handle.

移動(dòng)技術(shù)讓一些我們?cè)欢日J(rèn)為相當(dāng)無趣的設(shè)備——例如手表，煥發(fā)了生機(jī)。一年前，當(dāng)人們可以從口袋里掏出一部智能手機(jī)，在其光亮的屏幕上讀取時(shí)間，誰還要買手表呢？然而，這種觀念可能很快就要轉(zhuǎn)變了。

蘋果公司押注：一旦消費(fèi)者意識(shí)到他們只需瞄一眼手腕就可以查看時(shí)間，附帶還能查看郵件、社交媒體信息以及心率時(shí)，他們就會(huì)覺得從口袋里掏手機(jī)也太麻煩了。據(jù)彭博新聞社和科技網(wǎng)站The Verge報(bào)道，蘋果公司約有100名員工正致力于研發(fā)這種手表樣的設(shè)備，并且可能于今年推出。有傳這個(gè)產(chǎn)品將被命名為iWatch，與硅谷另一款強(qiáng)大的可佩戴設(shè)備——谷歌眼鏡并駕齊驅(qū)。

這可能將智能手機(jī)置于何種境地呢？

在美國、歐洲和亞洲部分智能移動(dòng)設(shè)備高度飽和的地區(qū)，消費(fèi)者們最終可能會(huì)認(rèn)為他們所擁有的最智能的設(shè)備將不再是用于無線通信的口袋平板，而是可以佩戴且?guī)缀鯚o需手持的腕表或眼鏡。

One possible result： smartphones are no longer “smart，” but relegated back to their old role of providing basic wireless communication and nothing more.

In fact， if the designers of the iWatch and Google Glass can figure out a seamless way to work with earphones and mics， and these devices have their own 6）SIM cards， who knows if smartphones as we know them will even be needed？

For one thing， consumers would still want a decent display for viewing content. In this case， smartphones could be replaced with cheaper，“7）dumb screens” that can connect， via 8）WiFi or bluetooth， with the more powerful processing power in the wearable device.

一種可能的結(jié)局是：智能手機(jī)不再“智能”，而是被打回原形，即回復(fù)到只提供基本無線通信功能的舊貌，除此之外別無他用。

實(shí)際上，如果蘋果手表和谷歌眼鏡的設(shè)計(jì)者們能夠找到一種方式無縫兼容耳機(jī)和話筒的使用，并且這些設(shè)備還能裝上自己的電話SIM卡，誰知道如今我們熟知的智能手機(jī)是否還有市場呢？

首先，消費(fèi)者仍會(huì)想要一個(gè)像樣的屏幕來瀏覽信息。在這種情況下，智能手機(jī)可能會(huì)被更為便宜的“笨屏幕”所取代，這些屏幕可以通過無線局域網(wǎng)或藍(lán)牙，與可佩戴設(shè)備中更強(qiáng)大的處理器相連。

Another option is that the smartphone as a slab still exists， and remains the wireless “hub”that contains a SIM card and processing power， but it also becomes a device that we dont interact with as much anymore and therefore becomes cheaper. （The case for a cheaper iPhone in developed markets becomes stronger here too.） You can leave the phone in your bag， and not worry about hearing it ring because you have your iWatch on.

“It replaces the compulsive need to turn on your phone and check whos been calling you，”says Vinita Jakhanwal， director of mobile and emerging displays with IHS iSuppli.

A current example of this idea comes from 9）Pebble， an e-paper watch that has raised $10 million in funding on 10）Kickstarter and is perhaps the most well-known of the forthcoming wave of smart watches. It uses Bluetooth to harness the functionality and processing power of a smartphone to display its notifications.

Jakhanwal says a wearable device like Google Glass probably wouldnt need a second screen， since the device can project a fairly large display. But she also questions how viable a product Glass is， knowing that 3D television has struggled to catch on. “Consumers dont take to wearing something on their eyes very easily，” she says.

另一種可能是，智能手機(jī)作為平板依然存在，并且仍然是保有SIM卡和處理能力的無線“中心”，但它也成為消費(fèi)者們不再頻繁互動(dòng)的設(shè)備，因此價(jià)格變得更為便宜。（蘋果手機(jī)的價(jià)格在成熟市場日趨低廉的理由在這里也變得更加充分。）你大可以把手機(jī)放到包里，不必?fù)?dān)心聽不到手機(jī)響，因?yàn)槟愦髦O果手表。

“有了這玩意兒，你不需要再強(qiáng)迫癥一般查看手機(jī)，看誰給你致電了?！笔袌鲅芯抗綢HS iSuppli的移動(dòng)及新興顯示業(yè)務(wù)總監(jiān)維尼塔·捷克納瓦爾如是說。

這一想法的當(dāng)下例子來自Pebble智能手表，這款電子紙手表已經(jīng)在眾籌網(wǎng)站Kickstarter上募得1000萬美元，可能是未來智能手表浪潮中最知名的產(chǎn)品。它運(yùn)用藍(lán)牙來駕馭智能手機(jī)的功能和處理能力以顯示通告信息。

捷克納瓦爾表示，像谷歌眼鏡這樣的可佩戴設(shè)備可能不需要第二塊屏，因?yàn)樵撛O(shè)備可以投射出一塊相當(dāng)大的顯示屏。但她也質(zhì)疑谷歌眼鏡作為產(chǎn)品的可延續(xù)性，因?yàn)樗芮宄缃?D電視的推廣遭遇困境?！跋M(fèi)者不會(huì)輕易在自己的眼前戴上任何東西。”她如是說。

So if wearable watches rise， could we also see “dumb displays” replacing smartphones？ “Whats not very clear right now is what your 11）user interface is going to be with these new types of devices. Google Glass works with voice…but a lot of work still needs to be done to make those kinds of interfaces easy and accurate to use，” says Jakhanwal. “It could also be gesture as a user interface rather than touch.”

Some concept devices have even used the blinking eye as an interface method. “How you 12）superimpose your basic iOS and device with user interaction will be critical to making these devices successful，” she says.

One thing to note： if wearable devices do send 13）rectangular smartphones the way of the PC 14）tower， it wont be for years yet. The mobile market is too huge for that. Roughly 1.2 billion mobile phones were sold in 2012 alone， and around 800 million of them were smartphones， Jakhanwal notes.“The smartphone market will not go away.”

那么如果可佩戴的智能手表興起，我們會(huì)看到“笨顯示器”取代智能手機(jī)嗎？捷克納瓦爾說：“現(xiàn)在尚不清楚的是，這些新型設(shè)備的用戶界面會(huì)是怎么樣的。谷歌眼鏡支持語音……但是要讓那種界面簡單易用，精準(zhǔn)操作，還需要下很多工夫。成為用戶界面的還可能是手勢而非觸摸操作?！?/p>

一些概念設(shè)備已經(jīng)甚至使用到了眨眼動(dòng)作作為一種交互方式。“如何在基本的iOS操作系統(tǒng)和設(shè)備上加上用戶交互將成為這些設(shè)備成功與否的關(guān)鍵所在?！?賈漢維爾說。

值得注意的一點(diǎn)是：如果可佩戴設(shè)備的確能使方方正正的智能手機(jī)重蹈個(gè)人電腦主機(jī)的覆轍，那也不會(huì)在近年內(nèi)發(fā)生。移動(dòng)市場巨大，還不至于這么快。捷克納瓦爾指出，單是2012年，售出的手機(jī)就約有12億部，其中大概有8億部為智能手機(jī)?！爸悄苁謾C(jī)的市場不會(huì)消逝?！?img src="https://cimg.fx361.com/images/2018/07/08/qkimagesfkyyfkyy201305fkyy20130508-4-l.jpg"/>