丁平興

（華東師范大學(xué) 河口海岸學(xué)國家重點實驗室，上海 200062）

國務(wù)院（［2009］19號文）要求上海加快國際金融中心和國際航運中心的建設(shè)，其中國際航運中心建設(shè)的總體目標(biāo)是：到2020年，基本建成航運資源高度集聚、航運服務(wù)功能健全、航運市場環(huán)境優(yōu)良、現(xiàn)代物流服務(wù)高效，具有全球航運資源配置能力的國際航運中心；基本形成以上海為中心，以江浙為兩翼，以長江流域為腹地，與國內(nèi)其他港口合理分工、緊密協(xié)作的國際航運樞紐港；基本形成規(guī)?；?、集約化、快捷高效、結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的現(xiàn)代化港口集疏運體系，以及國際航空樞紐港，實現(xiàn)多種運輸方式一體化發(fā)展；基本形成服務(wù)優(yōu)質(zhì)、功能完備的現(xiàn)代航運服務(wù)體系，營造便捷、高效、安全、法治的口岸環(huán)境和現(xiàn)代國際航運服務(wù)環(huán)境，增強(qiáng)國際航運資源整合能力，提高綜合競爭力和服務(wù)能力。

近10余年來，隨著長江口深水航道整治、北槽12.5m航道貫通和洋山深水港的建成投產(chǎn)，上海港港口貨物吞吐量和集裝箱吞吐量雙雙躍居世界第一。但是，隨著社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展，到2020年上海建成國際航運中心的目標(biāo)正面臨新的嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。目前，上海港吞吐能力已經(jīng)飽和，長江口現(xiàn)有深水岸線已經(jīng)用盡，而國際其他大港，如新加坡港、釜山港等發(fā)展迅猛，上海港要維持世界第一大港、提升國際樞紐港地位面臨巨大壓力；上海港缺乏能接納1.8萬箱超大型集裝箱船和30萬t以上超大型礦石船與超大型油輪的深水泊位，在未來競爭中難以適應(yīng)船舶大型化的趨勢；長江三角洲和長江流域經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展，其產(chǎn)業(yè)布局和資源分布決定了長江流域的運輸強(qiáng)度將繼續(xù)逐年增加，上海港顯然不能滿足長江三角洲和長江流域貨運量的持續(xù)增長。

為此，上海迫切需要規(guī)劃開辟新港區(qū)，建設(shè)一批20萬～30萬t直至50萬t級的超大型深水泊位，著力完善江海聯(lián)運的條件，提升上海國際航運中心的功能，提高對長江流域貨運市場的整合、輻射能力和國際競爭力，更好地服務(wù)長三角地區(qū)，服務(wù)長江流域，服務(wù)全中國，進(jìn)一步發(fā)揮長江三角洲及長江流域社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的龍頭作用。

2011年初，上海同盛集團(tuán)原副總裁、洋山港口指揮部原指揮歸墨，洋山港口指揮部顧問總工邵榮順來我們單位調(diào)研，建議我們開展長江口新港址研究。華東師范大學(xué)河口海岸科學(xué)研究院和河口海岸學(xué)國家重點實驗室對此非常重視，組織了專題研究組，全力支持該項國家與上海迫切需求的研究。國家重點實驗室設(shè)立自主課題給予經(jīng)費支持，同時進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)了與中交第三航務(wù)工程勘察設(shè)計院有限公司的合作，充分發(fā)揮專業(yè)設(shè)計院在港口規(guī)劃和設(shè)計等方面的優(yōu)勢，以及華東師范大學(xué)在長江口及其鄰近區(qū)域自然條件分析、數(shù)值模型技術(shù)和大型工程環(huán)境影響的分析評估等方面的優(yōu)勢，于2012年5月完成了《上海國際航運中心——橫沙淺灘挖入式港池、人工島規(guī)劃方案研究報告》初稿；8月完成研究報告的征求意見稿，并送國內(nèi)交通、港口、海岸工程等方面的著名院士、專家征求意見；9月，邀請交通部長江口航道管理局、國家海洋局東海分局、上海市水務(wù)局、中交第三航務(wù)工程勘察設(shè)計院有限公司等單位的專家，對橫沙淺灘挖入式港池方案的自然條件和建設(shè)可能性、挖入式港池方案的比選、挖入式港池方案對北槽深水航道影響等，征求意見。同行專家們對該項研究，特別是橫沙淺灘挖入式港池方案對北槽深水航道影響等結(jié)論給予了充分肯定，并提出不少有價值的意見和建議。

根據(jù)院士、專家們的意見和建議，我們對研究報告作了補(bǔ)充與完善，包括：進(jìn)一步闡述選擇橫沙淺灘作為新港址的理由；采用不同的港池與航道回淤公式，計算挖入式港池與入海航道的回淤，并補(bǔ)充了大風(fēng)天氣下港池與入海航道的回淤估算；增加了挖入式港池挖填土方估算以及挖入式港池與外航道建設(shè)對生態(tài)與環(huán)境的可能影響初步分析，等等；同時為突出重點，在研究報告中取消了長江口外人工島規(guī)劃方案的內(nèi)容。研究組成員還專程考察唐山京唐港，學(xué)習(xí)他們挖入式港池建設(shè)的經(jīng)驗與教訓(xùn)，受益匪淺。在此基礎(chǔ)上，我們完成了《上海國際航運中心橫沙淺灘挖入式港池規(guī)劃方案研究報告》，并邀請本行業(yè)著名院士、專家于2012年11月10日在上海對"研究報告"進(jìn)行會議評審。與會專家一致認(rèn)為：根據(jù)上海港定位和國際航運中心的發(fā)展要求，加快研究建設(shè)新的能滿足國際集裝箱樞紐港和大型深水江海聯(lián)運的國際物流中心要求的大型港區(qū)，是十分必要和迫切的；根據(jù)國內(nèi)外類似港口的建設(shè)經(jīng)驗，在橫沙淺灘建設(shè)挖入式深水港區(qū)沒有重大的技術(shù)制約，建設(shè)是可能的，可作為上海新港址的首選方案；本階段的規(guī)劃研究成果是科學(xué)的、合理的，可以供國家有關(guān)部門在規(guī)劃新港區(qū)時作為決策依據(jù)。

為交流我們的研究進(jìn)展，我們把"研究報告"中的核心內(nèi)容在《華東師范大學(xué)學(xué)報》（自然科學(xué)版）上以?？问桨l(fā)表，期望得到研究同行的共鳴與指正，更期望引起有關(guān)部門的重視，為上海早日建成國際航運中心作出貢獻(xiàn)。

此項工作得到同盛集團(tuán)原副總裁、洋山港指揮部原指揮歸墨教授級高工的指導(dǎo)和中交第三航務(wù)工程勘察設(shè)計院領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的支持，華東師范大學(xué)河口海岸學(xué)國家重點實驗室設(shè)專項給予經(jīng)費資助；專題研究組中一批已退休的老教授、老總等近二年來做出了無私的奉獻(xiàn)，年輕博士付出了艱辛的努力，在此一并致以感謝！

In Document No.19（2009）issued by the State Council，Shanghai was asked to be built into an international financial center as well as an international shipping center；the general goals of the latter center included：By 2020，Shanghai will have established an international shipping center with high concentration of maritime resources，sound shipping services，excellent shipping market environment，efficient modern logistics services，and good capacity to allocate global shipping resources.It will become an international shipping hub with Shanghai as the center，Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces as the wings，the Yangtze River Basin as the hinterland，and with reasonable functional allocations and close collaborations with the other ports in China.A modern port will be formed with a largescale，intensive，efficient and optimized collecting and distributing system.In combination with the international aviation hub in Shanghai，an integrated multiple transportation mode will be established.A modern shipping service system will come true with excellent services and full functions，in order to create a convenient，efficient，safe and lawful port environment as well as a modern international shipping service environment，to enhance the ability of integrating international shipping resources and to improve the comprehensive competitiveness and service ability.

In the last decade，both the cargo throughput and the container throughput in the Shanghai Port have rocketed up to the first place in the world，thanks to the construction and availability of the Yangtze Estuary’s 12.5 m Deepwater Channel and the Yangshan Deepwater Port.

Now，however，the Shanghai Port is facing new severe difficulties，as a consequence of the rapid development of the social economy in China，in realization of the goal to build up an international shipping center by 2020 as required by the State Council.At present，the throughput capacity of the Port has been fully used，and the deep water coastline along the Yangtze River Estuary has been used up；while other big ports in the world，such as Singapore harbor，Busan port and so on，are developing quickly.Without any deeper water berths to dock 18，000boxes of ultra large container ships，more than 300，000tons of super large ore carriers and supertankers，it is very difficult for the Shanghai Port to adapt to the world trend of increasing ship size in the future，and thus might lose its competitiveness as well as its status as the largest international hub port in the world.In addition，with the rapid development of the economy in the Yangtze River Delta and the Yangtze River Basin，the total amount of the transportation in these areas is increasing and will continue to increase year by year，causing the increase of the freight volumes which might soon exceed the limit that the Shanghai Port can handle.

So it is urgent for Shanghai to exploit new port area.A number of 200，000to 300，000tons，up to 500，000tons of super large deep water berths should be built，in order to improve the sea－river joint transportation conditions，to enhance the function of Shanghai international shipping center，and for the center to play a better role in the social and economic development in the Yangtze River Delta and the Yangtze River Basin.

In early 2011，Mr.Mo Gui，former vice president of the Shanghai Tongsheng Group and the former commandant of the Yangshan Port，together with Mr.Rong－shun Shao，the emeritus chief engineer consultant of the Yangshan Port，came to our Institute and suggested us to carry out the research on new port area planning.The State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research （SKLEC），East China Normal University，paid much attention to this suggestion，and organized a special group to fully support the study on the urgent need from the State and Shanghai.The Laboratory provided financial support for this special project，and further strengthened the cooperation with the CCCC Third Harbor Consultants，so that the advantages of both SKLEC and the CCCC Third Harbor Consultants can be fully taken.The first version of the research report on the planning scheme of building an excavated－in harbor basin in the Hengsha Shoal and constructing an artificial island of Yangtze Estuary was drafted up in May 2012.The second draft was completed in August 2012，and was forwarded to prestigious academicians and experts from the domestic transportation，ports，and coastal engineering sectors for advices.In September 2012，the experts from the Yangtze Estuary Waterway Administration of the Ministry of transportation，the East China Sea Branch of the State Oceanic Administration，Shanghai water authority and CCCC Third Harbor Consultants were invited to give their suggestions on the second draft.The academicians and experts in this area confirmed our research work，and highly supported the planning scheme of building an excavated－in harbor basin in the Hengsha shoal of the Yangtze Estuary；and they also put forward many valuable comments and suggestions.

We improved the research report according to the expert advices and suggestions，including further explaining the reasons why to choose Hengsha shoal as a new harbor site，calculating the siltation of excavated－in harbor basin and channel by use of different siltation formulas，estimating siltation for the harbor and waterway during typhoon weather，evaluating the earthwork for the excavated－in harbor basin and roughly analyzing the possible impacts of the planned construction on the ecological environment.The artificial island plan was removed from the study report in order to focus on the excavated－in harbor basin planning.In addition，the research team visited Tangshan Jingtang Port and learned the experiences and lessons in the construction process of excavated－in harbor basin.The final research report was completed in October，2012.The prestigious experts in this area were invited to attend the review meeting for the report held in November 10，2012，Shanghai.The experts agreed that it is quite necessary and urgent to expedite the study of a large－scale multipurpose new port plan which can meet the requirements of international container hub port and of international logistics center with the sea－river joint transportation，according to the development requirement of the Shanghai Port and international shipping center.It is entirely possible to build an excavated－in deep water port in the Hengsha shoal without major technical constraints from the construction experiences of similar ports home and abroad.The present excavated－in harbor basin plan may be taken as the preferred scheme.The study results in this phase are scientifically and practically sound，which can be used as the basis for the relevant planning sectors to make new port decisions.

In order to demonstrate our research results，the main content in the final research report is published as a special issue in the Journal of East China Normal University（Natural Science）.We wish to get active responses and comments or suggestions from research fellows，and expect more attention from relevant administrative sectors so as to make greater contribution for the early realization of the Shanghai international shipping center.

Much thanks to Mr.Mo Gui，the former vice president of the Shanghai Tongsheng Group and the former commandant of the Yangshan Port，and the leaders of CCCC Third Harbor Consultants，who provided valuable advices and supports for the research.We are grateful to the SKLEC in East China Normal University，which provided financial supports to the research.A group of retired professors and senior chief engineers，as well as young scientists are greatly appreciated for their hard work and selfless contributions.