In December， 2011， IDC (Interna

tional Data Corporation) China

issued 10 predictions about the

Chinese ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) market in 2012. According to IDC， the Chinese economy will be generally confronted with risks and uncertainties yet with steady and speedy growth. Under such expectation that export demand is to become sluggish and economic restructuring will face greater pressure， competition in the domestic market will become more throat-cut. However， the IT market still maintain fast growth， such as continuous development for cloud computing， Internet of things and corporate mobile Internet; the transformation of individual IT operation type will revolute the traditional concept of IT channels; e-commerce will ever develop in an all-round manner; the mobile Internet will restructure the model of the retail and the service industries.

Looking into 2012， such mainstream technologies in the Chinese ICT market as cloud computing， mobile Internet， the Internet of things and business analysis would be widely used in various industries， which would drive enterprises to improve product and service quality， enhance the efficiency of operation and management and to increase business revenues and their overall market share， Wu Lianfeng， Associate Vice President of the China Industry Research and Consulting Service Department of IDC， told the reporter. In 2012， the Chinese IT market will expand into the 4-6-tier cities and IT technologies will continue to help enterprises cut energy consumption and reduce emissions. As the key projects in the 12th Five-Year Plan are being carried out， the popularity of intelligent terminals will continue to engineer the individual-consumption electronics market and the Chinese ICT market will witness steady growth amid global uncertainties.

Prediction 1: The Chinese economy will step into the weakgrowing cycle， but the IT market will maintain rapid growth in the key fields.

In 2011， as the Chinese government adopted highly severe financial crunch policies to restrain high inflation， the commodity price and the housing price were basically stabilized and a soft landing was almost achieved for the economy. Looking into 2012， the Chinese economy will maintain a staggering growth momentum. The latest data issued by the EIU shows that the growth rate of the Chinese GDP is expected to reach 8.6% in 2012. As policies to restrain housing price and high inflation will continue， investments will slow down and as the European debt crisis and the weakening US economy will impact export， domestic consumption and investments in the key fields will become a major drive for economic growth. The Central Government unveiled a string of policies in October， 2011 to encourage consumption， such as raising the starting point for levying value-added tax and reducing the administrative charges for minor enterprises. In the mean time， such key domains as smart grid， next-generation information technology and living service industry will promise tremendous opportunities for the IT industry. Besides， the national 12th Five-Year Plan includes special chapters to expound how to enhance the overall informatization level， which indicates that 2012 will see abundant opportunities for the IT industry. The IDC predicts that in 2012， the Chinese IT market will reach a scale of RMB 985.4 billion， up 19.9% over the previous year; at the same time， in 2012 the telecommunication service market will have a scale of RMB 950.7 billion， up 7.4% over 2011.

Prediction 2: The Chinese IT market will develop in cities at three tiers.The IDC holds that cities at different tiers play different roles: highgrade cities serve as the center for data collection and processing， low-grade cities is the terminal for data production and consumption， and the mediumgrade cities produce， collect， transmit and process data. The IDC predicts that in 2012， the above-mentioned market characteristics will gradually become clear and the cities at different tiers will find their positions in the macro market environment， which will drive the development of the local IT markets. The vertical industries will also specify the positioning of different cities in the macro environment， correspondingly increasing input for various products.

Prediction 3: Cloud computing will be applied widely in the wake of large-scale infrastructure construction. In 2011， China’s cloud computing market experienced an upswing under the government’s support: the local governments invested a lot in cloud computing and constructed numerous data centers for cloud computing; telecommunication operators and Internet enterprises began to develop their own cloud computing businesses; by far many users have begun to deploy their basic framework on the platform bycloud computing service providers; new applications of cloud computing and Internet of things began to emerge. The IDC regards that the cloud computing service market will reach a scale of RMB 929 million in 2012， up 52.0% year-on-year.

Prediction 4: Large-volume data will make business analysis a top choice for CIOs to achieve the business value of IT and new requirements will be raised for the software and hardware system.

The rapid development of mobile Internet， social media， e-commerce， Internet of things and cloud computing will confront enterprises with challenges in terms of large-volume data in 2012. The new pattern to process large volume data will prompt revolution in the IT industry: the large-volume data era will bring challenge to users in terms of data storage and the data center’s infrastructure， engineering the speedy development of the business analysis market. The enterprise and industry users enhancing IT application level and the advent of the “l(fā)arge-volume data” make CIOs hope to achieve the business value of IT by virtue of BA and then to enhance corporate competitiveness. Different from traditional data， large volume data analysis has stricter standards in terms of performance， timeliness as well as the software and hardware system.

Prediction 5: As IDC resources are allocated in different regions，“one-stop IDC service” integrating entrusting， monitoring and operation maintenance services will win great popularity.

Influenced by “cloud model” development and energy consumption of data centers， large-scale IDC service business data centers will divert to high-latitude regions in 2012， showing a trend of scattered deployment among regions. In 2012， the number of the total business data centers is expected to increase at a growth rate of 11.7% and the IDC service market at an annual rate of 25.1%. To be more capable for long-distance services， service providers of business data centers will launch onestop IDC business solutions integrating entrusting， monitoring and operation maintenance services， aiming to help clients efficiently utilize resources.

Prediction 6: Corporate mobile application market will witness an upswing in 2012.

With the popularity of mobile apparatus， the support of mobile broadband and investments in construction of WIFI sites， mobile application is developing fast in China. The ever development of individual mobile application has created essential conditions for the development of corporate mobile application， which provides business opportunities for the IT manufacturers of corporate mobile application and mobile application developers.

Prediction 7: As the technology environment of the Internet of things is maturing， market development will begin to be driven by industry application from government policies.

With the development of 3G and wireless network technology， the technology environment of the Internet of things is maturing. The development of wireless network and the development of the Internet of things well complement each other. In the mean time， the Internet of things will be further applied in industries， and power grid， transportation， environmental protection and agriculture will become the key industries for application of the Internet of things.

Prediction 8: Transformation of individual IT operation type will revolute the traditional concept of IT channels

As the IT terminal product structure gradually became clear in 2011， the multi-screen intelligent terminal industrial chain consisting of PC， smartphones， tablet PC and smart TV will gradually take shape. Manufacturers began to deploy future development planning in 2011， but for the implementation of the planning， the IT terminal channel is undoubtedly a vital section along the industrial chain. The IDC holds that both the retail and business-use IT terminals will necessarily transform the traditional concept to some degree， launching terminal access structure more suitable for individual IT operation type.

Prediction 9: Mobile Internet will diversify IT services and will become a new growth point for service demands.

Mobile Internet will become a popular sphere for the development of the IT service industry， as it not only horizontally moves the traditional Internet platform to the mobile terminal， but also exceeds the traditional Internet in an all-round manner in terms of client base， business model and application development. Relevant software and its application have permeated into daily life and its demand is mounting explosively. The mobile Internet will necessarily become a forceful drive for the development of IT services， fuelling the diversification of IT services.

Prediction 10: As e-commerce ever develops in an all-round manner， mobile Internet will restructure the model of the retail and service industries.

Thanks to the diverse development of e-commerce services and the internal needs for upstream and downstream control along the industrial chain， ecommerce has gradually turned to a platform integrating online resources and offline entities from pure online transaction， such as the combination of e-commerce and searching engine and the combination of e-commerce and offline transaction. The profit-making model of the e-commerce platform is diversifying with a raised industry entry threshold.

In the mean time， the development of mobile Internet basing on speedy mobile Internet and intelligent terminals gives the traditional PC Internet mobility (combination with LBS basing on position service and information)， perception (more and more colorful induction and sensing functions provided by intelligent terminals) and authenticity (identity recognition and uniqueness featuring mobile terminals). These three features will be achieved via such mobile Internet as SoLoMo(Social + Local + Mobile). SoLoMo application will revolute the retail and service industries.