侯光良,鄂崇毅,肖景義,何青梅

1)青海師范大學(xué)生命與地理科學(xué)學(xué)院,青海西寧 810008;

2)青藏高原資源與環(huán)境教育部重點實驗室,青海西寧 810008

重建古氣溫的環(huán)境證據(jù)-方法差異性分析

侯光良1,2),鄂崇毅1,2),肖景義1,2),何青梅1)

1)青海師范大學(xué)生命與地理科學(xué)學(xué)院,青海西寧 810008;

2)青藏高原資源與環(huán)境教育部重點實驗室,青海西寧 810008

重建過去氣溫是 PAGES關(guān)注的焦點之一,由于環(huán)境證據(jù)類型與重建的方法不同,重建的古氣溫記錄存在一定差異。環(huán)境證據(jù)類型中孢粉、植物硅酸體、綜合證據(jù)、氧同位素、冰川-冰緣重建同一時段、同一地點的氣溫依次降低,孢粉與植物硅酸體指示的氣溫最為接近,綜合證據(jù)與氧同位素較接近;這說明孢粉重建的氣溫數(shù)值偏高,冰川-冰緣證據(jù)偏低,它們分別主要指示了植物生長季節(jié)和冬半年或冷期的氣溫;而綜合證據(jù)與氧同位素則可能比較接近實際氣溫。按照重建方法,轉(zhuǎn)換函數(shù)法重建的全新世氣溫記錄普遍高于自然地理因子指示法,而自然地理因子指示法重建的溫度記錄變化幅度更大(尤其是冷事件),說明因子指示法重建的氣溫記錄對于百年尺度的極端事件記錄更為靈敏。

重建;古氣溫;環(huán)境證據(jù);方法

過去氣溫變化是過去全球變化(PAGES)關(guān)注的焦點之一(PAGES,2009),重建過去萬年-千百年時段的氣溫變化,有助于評估現(xiàn)在全球變暖的走向與趨勢(Jamsen et al.,2007);但是由于受器測記錄的限制,較長時段的氣溫變化只能通過環(huán)境證據(jù)來間接指示(孫青等,2010;魏樂軍等,2002;張美良等,2009;鄭綿平等,1998)。由于環(huán)境證據(jù)類型不同,重建方法不同,導(dǎo)致重建氣溫結(jié)果存在一定差異,因此對不同環(huán)境證據(jù)類型、不同重建方法產(chǎn)生的重建氣溫數(shù)值差異應(yīng)科學(xué)認(rèn)識,最終服務(wù)于準(zhǔn)確的古氣溫重建。

1 數(shù)據(jù)來源及其類型

1.1 數(shù)據(jù)的來源

本文從國內(nèi)外公開發(fā)表的246篇各類文獻(xiàn)中搜集中國全新世古氣溫記錄,尤以 20世紀(jì) 80年代以來發(fā)表在各類期刊上的文獻(xiàn)為主。

選定古氣溫記錄須同時具備以下兩個條件:其一有定量的氣溫數(shù)據(jù),這些定量的氣溫數(shù)據(jù)以年均氣溫或年均溫距平(年均溫與現(xiàn)代年均溫差)等形式表達(dá),按照是否連續(xù)分為序列氣溫數(shù)據(jù)和散點氣溫數(shù)據(jù),序列氣溫數(shù)據(jù)是指古氣溫記錄在文獻(xiàn)中是以序列的形式出現(xiàn),散點氣溫是指文獻(xiàn)中全新世某個時間點的氣溫數(shù)值。其二有明確的年代數(shù)據(jù),以14C年或日歷年時間體系定量表達(dá),時間分辨率要達(dá)到百年尺度。本文中將所有的14C年數(shù)據(jù)采用CALIB4.0程序轉(zhuǎn)換為日歷年,故本文中年代數(shù)據(jù)均為日歷年。

現(xiàn)代氣溫數(shù)據(jù)來源于中國 160個氣象基準(zhǔn)站1951—2005年的逐月平均氣溫器測資料(http://ncc.cma.gov.cn/)。

1.2 古氣溫數(shù)據(jù)的類型

從 45條古氣溫序列上經(jīng)過數(shù)字化等步驟提取1271條全新世定量氣溫記錄(蔡永立等,2001;范斌等,2006;顧明光等,2006;Ge et al.,2003;Jiang et al.,2006;李文漪,1985,1998;李平日等,1991;毛龍江等,2005;龐獎勵等,2005;Pflaumann et al.,1999;喬玉樓等,1996;施雅風(fēng)等,1992;沈才明等,1992;史威等,2008;宋長青等,1997;孫建中等,1998;童國榜等,1991,1997;唐領(lǐng)余等,1993,1996,2004;覃嘉銘,1997;吳乃琴等,1994;王永吉等,1983;王紹武等,2002;Wang et al.,1990;許清海等,2003,2004;徐國昌等,1997;姚祖駒等,1991;余克服等,2001;楊志榮,1998;張子斌等,1981;張?zhí)m生等,1992,1997;鄭洪漢等,1996;周廷儒等,1982;朱誠等,2008;中國科學(xué)院貴陽地球化學(xué)研究所第四紀(jì)孢粉組、14C組,1977),從文獻(xiàn)中引用了126條散點氣溫(記錄和參考文獻(xiàn)省略)。

這些古氣溫記錄從環(huán)境證據(jù)類型來看,包括孢粉、植物硅酸體、植物化石、珊瑚礁、泥炭、地球化學(xué)、氧同位素、冰川冰緣地貌、石筍、烯酮、古土壤、海灘巖、化學(xué)礦物、考古、歷史文獻(xiàn)和綜合證據(jù)(表1)。這些證據(jù)指示的氣溫分辨率基本在百年左右,其中孢粉記錄最多,占全部記錄的68.4%,其次為氧同位素,占記錄的8.7%,第三為綜合證據(jù)占記錄的7.9%,石筍占 4.2%,其它記錄較少,只占全部記錄的10%強。從古氣溫記錄的重建方法來看,分為轉(zhuǎn)換函數(shù)法(孢粉轉(zhuǎn)換函數(shù)、植物硅酸體轉(zhuǎn)換函數(shù)、磁化率轉(zhuǎn)換函數(shù)和氧同位素轉(zhuǎn)換函數(shù)等,簡稱轉(zhuǎn)換法)和自然地理因子指示法(冰川冰緣地貌、植物化石和海灘巖等,簡稱因子法),轉(zhuǎn)換法是指利用環(huán)境感應(yīng)體與現(xiàn)代氣候要素之間的統(tǒng)計關(guān)系,來推算古氣溫的一種數(shù)學(xué)方法;因子法則是利用自然地理環(huán)境中的對氣溫變化具有定量指示意義的環(huán)境要素推斷當(dāng)時的氣溫。本文中序列氣溫多為轉(zhuǎn)換法得到,而散點氣溫記錄多使用因子法。

圖1 古氣溫記錄的類型及其分布Fig.1 Types and distribution of ancient temperature records

表1 證據(jù)類型及使用古氣溫數(shù)統(tǒng)計Table 1 Statistics of evidence types and number of ancient temperatures used

2 古氣溫記錄的轉(zhuǎn)換

重建氣溫序列,需要將分散在全國各地區(qū)的古氣溫數(shù)值轉(zhuǎn)換為全國尺度,這樣才可以相互比較。轉(zhuǎn)換方法如下:

(1)全國氣溫分區(qū):利用中國現(xiàn)代 160個氣象基準(zhǔn)站的1951—2005年的器測資料,采用聚類分析和EOF相結(jié)合的方法,綜合考慮氣溫變化趨勢和變化過程,把全國分為8個氣溫變化分區(qū),依次為東北區(qū)、華北北部區(qū)、中東部區(qū)、東南區(qū)、陜甘寧區(qū)、川黔桂區(qū)、新疆區(qū)、滇藏高原區(qū)。

(2)全國、分區(qū)年均氣溫變化序列與30年滑動平均序列:先計算1951—2005年全國各分區(qū)的年均氣溫、30年滑動氣溫序列,再利用面積加權(quán)的方法求取中國年均氣溫、30年滑動氣溫序列。

(3)站點、分區(qū)與全國平均氣溫的函數(shù)關(guān)系:站點是指分布在距離古氣溫記錄地點最近的氣象站點。結(jié)果表明:全國絕大部分站點30年滑動平均序列和全國30年滑動平均序列相關(guān)系數(shù)高達(dá)0.95以上;同時,30年滑動序列建立的回歸方程的方差解釋量大多都超過了 0.90,其殘差標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差較逐年序列要小一個數(shù)量級。因此轉(zhuǎn)換中使用30年滑動平均序列的統(tǒng)計關(guān)系。

(4)單樣本區(qū)域訂正:利用前述得到的站點與全國平均氣溫的函數(shù)關(guān)系,將古氣溫記錄轉(zhuǎn)換為全國尺度,即把古氣溫值都轉(zhuǎn)換為與現(xiàn)代全國氣溫距平值。這樣使來自不同地區(qū)的古氣溫可以直接比較。

3 不同方法-證據(jù)重建的中國全新世百年分辨率氣溫序列

由于證據(jù)類型不同、方法不同,得到的古氣溫結(jié)果存在顯著的差異,現(xiàn)就對不同方法和感應(yīng)體類型,重建的全新世古氣溫記錄進(jìn)行對比分析。將整理的古氣溫記錄,以日歷年為時間坐標(biāo)系,以公元1950年(1900—1999 AD)為起點,以100年為時間間隔,以 1900—1999 AD 年記為0 aBP,1800—1899 AD為標(biāo)記為100 aBP,依次類推,建立相應(yīng)的全新世古氣溫數(shù)據(jù)集,并對同時段的古氣溫記錄按照方法(轉(zhuǎn)換法、因子法)和環(huán)境證據(jù)類型(孢粉、植物硅酸體、氧同位素、植物證據(jù)和綜合證據(jù))進(jìn)行平均,分別得到方法、不同證據(jù)類型的氣溫序列。

3.1 不同方法重建的氣溫序列

圖2 不同方法重建的氣溫序列Fig.2 Temperature series reconstructed by temperature records of different methods

重建氣溫記錄的方法可以分為轉(zhuǎn)換法和因子法,由前述步驟得到轉(zhuǎn)換氣溫序列和因子氣溫序列。根據(jù)圖2:轉(zhuǎn)換序列數(shù)據(jù)較充足,是連續(xù)序列,而因子序列不連續(xù)。從重建的兩條序列來看,二者表現(xiàn)出大體一致的氣溫變化趨勢,即中全新世氣溫相對較高,而早晚全新世相對較低。但在同一時段轉(zhuǎn)換法重建的氣溫值幾乎都高于因子指示,少數(shù)時段除外。另外,轉(zhuǎn)換序列在全新世期間距平氣溫變化幅度為?2～3℃,而因子序列變化幅度為?4～3℃;因子法氣溫記錄變化幅度較轉(zhuǎn)換法為大,且因子法指示冷期較轉(zhuǎn)換更冷。產(chǎn)生這一差異的主要原因是因子法一般可以較好的記錄到氣溫變化的極端值,故因子法對于極端氣溫指示更為敏感。

3.2 不同類型重建的氣溫序列

按照環(huán)境證據(jù)不同,可以建立孢粉、氧同位素(長鏈烯酮)、植物硅酸體、植物證據(jù)、冰川證據(jù)和綜合證據(jù)序列(圖3),另有一些環(huán)境證據(jù)類型氣溫記錄過少,難以進(jìn)行討論。從圖3可見:孢粉序列數(shù)據(jù)較多,是一條連續(xù)序列;其它序列均不完整,相對來說,氧同位素序列、綜合證據(jù)序列數(shù)據(jù)較多,而植物硅酸體、植物證據(jù)、冰川證據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)較少。此外,為更清晰的探討不同證據(jù)類型重建氣溫的差異,分別做孢粉、植物硅酸體、綜合證據(jù)和氧同位素序列同時段兩兩之間的重建氣溫差(圖4),大體呈現(xiàn)以下規(guī)律:

(1)從五條證據(jù)類型氣溫序列來看,在整個全新世,重建的同時段氣溫記錄孢粉＞植物硅酸體＞綜合證據(jù)＞氧同位素＞冰川-冰緣。即孢粉記錄的氣溫最高,其次為植物硅酸體,而氧同位素和冰川-冰緣氣溫值依次為次低、最低。

(2)孢粉序列分別與植物硅酸體、綜合證據(jù)和氧同位素序列對比,在早、晚全新世差值為負(fù)值,而在中全新世為正值。即孢粉序列相對于植物硅酸體等三序列,在早晚全新世重建的氣溫要低,而在中全新世要高。說明孢粉序列重建的氣溫,有暖期更暖,冷期更冷的特點。

(3)從重建的氣溫記錄差值和幅度來看(表2),孢粉記錄與氧同位素記錄在氣溫差值、溫差幅度和氣溫方差都表現(xiàn)為相差最大,而與植物硅酸體記錄相差較小,這也就意味著孢粉序列與氧同位素序列相差最大,與植物硅酸體序列最為接近,綜合證據(jù)居中。同理,綜合證據(jù)序列與氧同位素序列較為接近,與植物硅酸體則稍遠(yuǎn)。

圖3 不同感應(yīng)體類型重建的氣溫Fig.3 Temperatures reconstructed by different types of inductor

表2 不同感應(yīng)體類型重建氣溫差統(tǒng)計指標(biāo)Table 2 Statistical indices of difference between temperatures reconstructed by different types of Inductor

4 結(jié)果與討論

古氣溫記錄的重建有不同的方法和感應(yīng)體類型,由于方法和感應(yīng)體類型的不同,重建的古氣溫記錄有顯著的差異。從方法來看,轉(zhuǎn)換法重建的全新世氣溫記錄普遍高于因子法,而因子法重建的氣溫記錄變化幅度更大(尤其是冷事件),說明因子法氣溫記錄對于百年尺度的極端事件記錄更為靈敏。重建古氣溫記錄的環(huán)境證據(jù)類型主要包括孢粉、植物硅酸體、綜合證據(jù)、氧同位素和冰川-冰緣證據(jù);就全新世總體來看,重建的氣溫值從高至低排列順序依次為:孢粉＞植物硅酸體＞綜合證據(jù)＞氧同位素＞冰川-冰緣,孢粉序列與植物硅酸體序列最為接近,而與氧同位素序列相差最遠(yuǎn),綜合證據(jù)序列較接近氧同位素序列,與植物硅酸體則稍遠(yuǎn)。

這可能指示在古氣溫重建中,孢粉、植物硅酸體重建氣溫可能偏高;由于孢粉和植物硅酸體均屬于植物證據(jù),植物多生長于生長季節(jié),對于寒冷冬季的信息難以捕捉,因此可能暗示植物證據(jù)重建的氣溫要偏高,指示的主要是生長季節(jié)的氣溫。冰川-冰緣、氧同位素證據(jù)指示的氣溫要偏低,尤其是冰川-冰緣證據(jù),它應(yīng)該指示極端冷期的氣溫;綜合證據(jù)較孢粉、植物硅酸體要低,但比氧同位素、冰川-冰緣要高,說明綜合證據(jù)相對較為適中,可能比較接近真實的氣溫值,這也說明采用不同證據(jù)類型的集成方法來重建古氣溫序列,具有單一證據(jù)類型和單一方法無法替代的優(yōu)勢,其重建結(jié)果應(yīng)該有較高的準(zhǔn)確性。

圖4 不同環(huán)境證據(jù)類型重建氣溫之差Fig.4 Difference between temperatures reconstructed by different types of circumstantial evidence

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The Sensitivity Analysis of Reconstructing Ancient Temperatures by Different Circumstantial Evidence and Methods

HOU Guang-liang1,2),E Chong-yi1,2),XIAO Jing-yi1,2),HE Qing-mei1)
1)School of Life and Geographic Science,Qinghai Normal University,Xining,Qinghai810008;
2)Key Laboratory of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Department of Resource and Environment Education,Xining,Qinghai810008

The reconstruction of ancient temperatures is one of the focuses to which PAGES pays close attention.Due to the difference between the type of circumstantial evidence and the method for reconstructing ancient temperatures,there exists certain differences between the records of reconstructing ancient temperatures.The temperatures from such types of circumstantial evidence as spore and pollen,phytolith,comprehensive evidence,oxygen isotope and glacier-periglacial decrease in turn at the same time and spot.The temperatures indicated by spore and pollen and phytolith are closest to each other,and those indicated by comprehensive evidence and oxygen isotope are relatively close to each other.These data suggest that the temperature numerical value reconstructed by spore and pollen is relatively high,and that of the evidence of glacier-periglacial is relatively low,which might mainly indicate the temperature of growing season of plants and that of half year of winter (cold period)respectively;by contrast,the comprehensive evidence and oxygen isotope temperature may be close to the actual temperature.According to the reconstruction method,the Holocene temperature record reconstructed by transfer function analysis is generally higher than that by the natural geographical factor indication method,while the variation range of the temperature record reconstructed by the natural geographical factor indication method is wider (especially the cold events),suggesting that the temperature record reconstructed by the factor indication method is more sensitive to the extreme event at the scale of one hundred years.

reconstruction;ancient temperature;circumstantial evidence;method

P92;P532;Q913.84;P597.2

A

10.3975/cagsb.2011.04.09

本文由青海師范大學(xué)科技創(chuàng)新項目(編號:10YJCZH041)資助。

2011-03-10;改回日期:2011-04-06。責(zé)任編輯:魏樂軍。

侯光良,男,1972生。博士,副教授。主要從事環(huán)境演變與人類響應(yīng)研究。通訊地址:810008,青海師范大學(xué)生命與地理科學(xué)學(xué)院。E-mail:hgl20@163.com。