民主黨總統(tǒng)候選人奧巴馬創(chuàng)造了歷史，然而他卻沒有太多時間慶祝，因為美國經(jīng)濟目前面臨著自羅斯福時期以來最艱難的局面。除了要把美國從1929年經(jīng)濟大蕭條以來最糟糕的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境中拯救出來之外，奧巴馬還要處理伊拉克、阿富汗兩場戰(zhàn)爭的爛攤子。

經(jīng)濟學家們普遍認為，美國經(jīng)濟已步入衰退，到今年1月份，這種衰退可能更加惡化。2009年1月20日正式走馬上任的奧巴馬，必須要大干一場了。

The whole of America is pondering a single issue: Is this another Great Depression? The answer， of course， is No. Well， not yet.

Most 1)pundits agree that an improved understanding of macro-economic management will prevent the US from suffering a repeat of the 1930s， when GDP fell by 19 per cent， 5，000 banks failed and unemployment hit 25 per cent. Faith in the financial authorities， however， is tempered by an unavoidable question: if they know so much， why was the 2)sub-prime mortgages drama allowed to develop into a nationwide crisis?

America is 3)disinclined to 4)wallow in pessimism. Its power and influence were built on a belief， woven into the nation’s DNA， that success is the natural order for those living under the 5)stars and stripes.

Yet， even here in 6)glitzy Miami， the foundations of confidence are being washed away by a wave of bad facts. Florida’s housing market is 7)under water. Weekend property supplements contained several advertisements for new homes at “below builder’s cost”. Prices of some 8)fancy apartments have been 9)slashed from $500，000 to $299，000. In America’s 20 largest cities， average house prices are down by 16.6 per cent. Households

have lost $5 trillion of wealth in the crash. More than seven million Americans are

expected to 10)default on their payments by the end of 2010. About four million of these will be forced to give up their homes.

When it comes to the economy， George Bush’s approval ratings are so low， support extends barely beyond blood relatives and staffers. His successor’s toughest job will be knowing where to start.

The model of globalisation that depends on the American consumer as a shopper of last resort is finished. Household debt is now $13.9 trillion， equal almost exactly to the size of the US economy. Between 2000 and 2007， America’s trade deficit 11)ballooned from $380 billion to $700 billion， as the country sucked in imports with borrowed money.

In the same period， inflation-adjusted median incomes of what 12)pollsters call “prime working-age families” (35--44-year olds) fell from $69，000 to $67，000. The illusion of rising prosperity was maintained by stock market profits， bigger mortgages and a wild 13)binge on credit cards. But as the cash flow from each of these stopped， America ran into trouble.

Consumer spending， which accounts for 70 per cent of the US economy， has 14)dipped for the first time in 17 years. About 25 million workers are employed in retail. Few can be certain their jobs are safe.

One of the worst affected sectors is car dealerships， with 700 expected to close this year， destroying more than 35，000 jobs. Sales of motor vehicles have fallen every month in the past 12 and are down to the lowest level for more than 25 years.

Analysts calculate that， after 15)allowing for population growth， sales are where they were just after the war.

Motor manufacturing by domestic companies is close to collapse. General Motors is burning through $1 billion of cash a month， and is lobbying furiously for state aid. Its October sales were down by 45.1 per cent on the same month the year before last.

16)Chrysler’s were 34.9 per cent lower. They have been discussing a 17)merger that could close half of Chrysler’s 14 plants and eliminate all but seven of its 26 models. If a deal were forged， 30，000 jobs would be in 18)jeopardy. Without an agreement， however， there will have to be 100，000-plus redundancies.

Unemployment in Detroit is already 8.9 per cent， compared with a national average of 6.1 per cent. Motown is fast becoming Slowtown， an industrial disaster zone.

The 19)crunch is triggering a surge in unpaid bills. 20)Delinquent credit-card debt has risen to 4.9 per cent. Banks， still reeling from the 21)dodgy mortgage 22)debacle， face the prospect of 23)writing off many billions more.

Who would have thought that Bill Clinton’s regime would be held up as a model of 24)fiscal responsibility? Between 1998 and 2000， it accumulated a federal surplus of $431 billion. The Bush term is ending with a 25)post 26)bailout budget deficit approaching $1 trillion.

As Time magazine concludes: “America is drowning in debt.

Getting 27)square again will be painful.” Don’t be fooled by the dollar’s rise， in today’s troubled world it is seen merely as the best house in a bad neighbourhood. As for the recent upturn in US share prices， Harvard economics professor Kenneth Rogoff said: “Don’t look at the stock market. Look at the credit market.”

By any conventional measure， the US economy under Bush has been a fool’s paradise: a place where consumers believed they could spend more than they were earning，

without a final 28)day of reckoning. That game is over. Barack Obama’s challenge will be to restore traditional American values， replacing speculation with enterprise， and 29)profligacy with thrift.

Change is long 30)overdue.

全美國都在思索一個問題：這又是一次經(jīng)濟大蕭條嗎？答案當然是否定的，至少是“暫時還沒有”。

絕大多數(shù)學者都認為加強宏觀經(jīng)濟管理可以防止美國重蹈上世紀30年代經(jīng)濟大蕭條的覆轍。當時美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值下降19%，5000家銀行破產(chǎn)，失業(yè)率高達25%。然而，民眾對財經(jīng)界權威的信任也難免遭遇尷尬：如果他們早就知道這么多，為何會讓次級抵押貸款危機演變成今天這場全國性的危機呢？

美國人向來拒絕悲觀消極。美國的權力和世界影響源于一個與生俱來的信念——成功是自然而然地屬于那些生活在星條旗下的人們的。這個信念就像植入了這個民族的DNA一樣穩(wěn)固且不容置疑。

然而現(xiàn)在，哪怕是在陽光燦爛的邁阿密，這種信念的根基正被一連串負面的事實沖垮。佛羅里達的房地產(chǎn)市場可謂水深火熱。周末房地產(chǎn)增刊中出現(xiàn)好幾條以“低于房屋造價”為噱頭的新屋廣告。有些精美公寓的價格已經(jīng)從50萬美元狂跌至29.9萬美元。全美的20個大城市中，平均房價已經(jīng)下跌16.6%。房價縮水讓房產(chǎn)持有者們損失了5萬億美元。2010年之前，700多萬美國人將會無力償還房貸，他們之中大約有400萬人會因此被迫放棄他們的房子。

在經(jīng)濟方面，喬治·布什的支持率非常低，支持他的恐怕只有他的家人和幕僚。對他的繼任者而言，最嚴峻的挑戰(zhàn)莫過于該從哪里著手收拾這個爛攤子。

過去那種唯美國消費者馬首是瞻的全球一體化模式已經(jīng)宣告結束了。現(xiàn)在美國房屋債務高達13.9萬億美元，數(shù)額幾乎相當于整個美國的經(jīng)濟。2000年至2007年間，美國以貸款來進口貨物，貿(mào)易逆差從3800億狂飆至7000億美元。

同期，美國在通脹因素調(diào)整后的中產(chǎn)階層年收入——即民意調(diào)查者所稱的“主要勞動年齡家庭”（35--44歲）年收入——從6.9萬下降到6.7萬美元。股市一路上揚、不斷增長的抵押貸款以及人們瘋狂使用信用卡造就了美國經(jīng)濟的虛假繁榮。然而，這其中任何一方面的現(xiàn)金流轉一旦陷于停滯，美國就陷入困境了。

比重占美國經(jīng)濟70%的消費性支出17年來首次出現(xiàn)下滑。零售業(yè)界約2500萬名工人中，少有人能確保自己的飯碗是絕對安全的。

汽車經(jīng)銷商是最大的受害者之一，預計今年（指2008年，編者注，下同）會有700家汽車代理行倒閉，超過3.5萬人失業(yè)。在過去12個月中，汽車銷售量逐月下降，目前已經(jīng)降至25年來的最低水平。分析家計算了一下，將人口增長因素考慮在內(nèi)，目前汽車的銷售情況與二戰(zhàn)后相當。

國內(nèi)的汽車制造廠家已經(jīng)瀕臨倒閉的邊緣。通用汽車公司每個月?lián)p失10億美元，現(xiàn)在他們正積極游說州政府伸出援手。今年10月，通用公司的銷售額比前年同期下降45.1%，克萊斯勒則下降34.9%。兩家公司現(xiàn)正商討合并事宜。一旦合并，克萊斯勒的14家車間將有一半會被關閉，原有的26款車型只留下7款繼續(xù)生產(chǎn)。要是真的談妥合并，3萬工人將職位不保。然而目前即便兩家公司沒達成任何協(xié)議，10萬多名工人也將面臨下崗的命運。

相比全國6.1%的平均失業(yè)率，底特律的失業(yè)率已經(jīng)高達8.9%。擁有“汽車城”之稱的底特律正在迅速淪為“慢城”——工業(yè)災難城。

危機也觸發(fā)債務逾期不還的個案急劇上升。信用卡拖欠還款的比例上升到4.9%。已經(jīng)為數(shù)不清的無法償還的按揭債務而頭痛不已的銀行，還將面臨蒙受好幾十億損失的可能。

誰會想到比爾·克林頓政府時期會被奉為財政穩(wěn)健的典范？1998年至2000年期間，美國聯(lián)邦財政盈余為4310億美元，可到了布什總統(tǒng)任期末段，實施了政府緊急救市計劃后，財政赤字已經(jīng)接近1萬億美元。

正如《時代》雜志指出的那樣：“美國已經(jīng)淹沒在債務當中了。要還清所有債務談何容易?！辈灰幻涝涤夼耍谶@個多事之秋，它只是眾多一塌糊涂的房屋中稍好的一幢而已。至于暫時回升的美國股價，哈佛大學經(jīng)濟教授肯尼思·羅格夫說：“不要看股票市場，去看信貸市場?！?/p>

從傳統(tǒng)角度衡量，布什總統(tǒng)領導下的美國經(jīng)濟就像是傻子的樂園：消費者相信他們可以花的比掙的多，絲毫不計后果。白日夢該醒了。擺在巴拉克·奧巴馬面前的挑戰(zhàn)就是重塑傳統(tǒng)的美國價值：擯棄投機，回歸實業(yè)；擯棄揮霍，重倡節(jié)儉。

美國早就應該有所改變了。